Blogs

Improving the Economic Modelling of Trade Agreements
May 20, 2020

Authors: Shanker Singham, CEO – Competere, Douglas McWilliams, Deputy Chairman – Cebr and Cristian Niculescu-Marcu, Director of Economic Analysis – Cebr   The Trade Bill

1 in 10 retailers facing imminent collapse as economic damage accumulates
May 19, 2020

Anticipated business recovery time increases to 28 weeks, suggesting the longer lockdown persists, the longer it will take to rebuild Despite this, more than two-fifths

Britain’s booming lifestyle jobs – a nation of artists, musicians and writers? We now have nearly half a million earning their living from the arts…
May 18, 2020

Nearly half a million people in the UK now earn enough of a living as artists, musicians or writers to cite it as their main

The Times – Lockdown households spend £104 a week on food and home comforts
May 12, 2020

Adults in lockdown Britain are spending almost £250 million a week extra on food, alcohol, entertainment and indoor hobbies, research has found.   Consumers are spending an

City A.M. – Coronavirus lockdown: 1m firms warn of collapse if restrictions continue for three months
May 11, 2020

More than 1m businesses have warned that they could not survive another three months of the coronavirus lockdown, after the prime minister last night announced

The Telegraph – 250,000 UK businesses face collapse, survey warns
May 11, 2020

The Opinium-Cebr Business Distress Tracker is foreshadowing this dire outcome if coronavirus trading conditions continue for another month   More than a quarter of a

The Times – Consumer confidence crashes to all-time low
May 5, 2020

Consumer confidence plummeted to its lowest level on record last month amid warnings of a sharp drop in economic growth and rising unemployment.   Households are

The UK lockdown IS coming to an end gradually. And now we need to reboot the economy
April 27, 2020

As I write I can see 15 builders working. Last week on the same two sites there were only 5. Traffic data also confirms that

£23 billion in excess savings set to accumulate in Q2, as consumer spending declines dramatically
April 24, 2020

UK retail rales, March 2020 and UK savings and expenditure forecast for Q2 2020 24th April 2020 New research conducted by Cebr has shown that the

Economist Douglas McWilliams: Getting Out of the Hole
April 21, 2020

The need to distance ourselves from each other socially and at work because of the Covid 19 virus has shattered our economies which are now

China Daily – Does China have the financial firepower to lift the world out of a global recession?
April 21, 2020

In the decade after the global financial crisis the China economy generated a quarter of global GDP but whether it can do the same this

The Guardian – British households face disposable income fall of £515 per month
April 20, 2020

“UK consumers could take £43bn hit as coronavirus crisis ravages UK economy   British households will have £43bn less cash available for essential spending between

The Mirror – Families on average £515 a month worse off because of coronavirus pandemic
April 20, 2020

“Meanwhile, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) claims an average family is £515 a month worse off because of coronavirus.   A report

UK households will see a £43 billion fall in cash available for essential spending in Q2
April 20, 2020

Coronavirus is hitting households hard. Through redundancies, income cuts and reductions in working hours, businesses are trying to reduce wage costs in order to preserve

The Telegraph – House prices set to slump £30,000 in frozen market
April 14, 2020

Prices expected to tumble by 13pc as incomes fall and transactions dry up, economists warn   More than £30,000 will be wiped off the average

The coronavirus crisis is about to spill over into the UK’s housing market – but not all regions will be hit equally hard
April 14, 2020

The lockdown that has been put in place to hold back the coronavirus until a medical means of stopping it can be found constitutes a

City A.M. – Cebr: UK output has plunged 30 per cent amid coronavirus
April 6, 2020

“UK economic output has fallen by roughly 30 per cent, according to new research, but some sectors such as manufacturing are much worse off than

The Sun – Coronavirus lockdown is costing the British economy £2.4BILLION a day, says alarming report
April 6, 2020

“Economic modelling by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) found the economic shutdown is leading to a fall in economic output of 31

The Telegraph – Coronavirus lockdown costing the economy £2.4 billion every day, study warns
April 6, 2020

“Young people and women are more likely working in industries that have been shut down to combat the spread of coronavirus   The coronavirus lockdown

As the UK remains in lockdown, Government may need to target more support at manufacturing sector
April 6, 2020

Estimates of daily economic impact of the UK’s lockdown by sector – April 2020   As the UK remains locked down this has extremely severe

The Sunday Times – Despatches from an economy at two-thirds of normal
April 5, 2020

View the full article here.   “It is a big and difficult question. How much of the economy is being shut down by the lockdown?

Douglas McWilliams and Mikael Pawlo on the Corona crisis
April 3, 2020

Douglas McWilliams talks to Mikael Pawlo about the possible financial impact of the Corona crisis. Also discussions about McWilliams’ books The Flat White Economy, The

The Times – Urgent talks to save next Edinburgh festivals
April 3, 2020

The UK and Scottish governments are locked in talks with council officials and senior Edinburgh festival staff to secure the future of the events after

Cebr makes an explanatory video for The Times on the differences between a recession and a depression, and how economies can recover from these states
March 31, 2020

Cebr has been asked by The Times to provide an explanatory video in which Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams answers the following three questions  –

How will our economy bounce back from the Corona Virus? A blog by Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams
March 31, 2020

The full blog post can be found here.   Corona Virus and the associated shutdowns have shattered the world economy. According to my colleagues at Cebr,

City A.M. – Coronavirus sets UK on course for deepest recession since 2008
March 30, 2020

The UK is set for the deepest recession since the 2008 financial crisis as the coronavirus pandemic ravages the economy.   The Centre for Economics

The Guardian – Coronavirus forecast to cut UK economic output by 15%
March 30, 2020

Analysts say unemployment could also double in deepest recession since financial crisis   The coronavirus pandemic could cause UK economic output to plunge by an

The Times – Consumer confidence index shows fears of economic depression
March 30, 2020

Households expect Britain to fall into recession this year, with some even predicting a more severe depression, as parts of the economy remain grounded.  

UK GDP expected to contract by 15% in Q2 as consumers under lockdown rein in spending
March 30, 2020

Cebr UK Prospects March 2020 – Covid-19 update.   This is a Press Release describing Cebr’s updated forecasts for the UK economy.   The UK

Worst Economic Crisis since 1930s
March 19, 2020

Douglas McWilliams warns that this will be the worst economic crisis since the 1930s   To see Cebr founder Douglas McWilliams’ commentary for the BBC’s

Cebr is still open for business
March 19, 2020

We hope all our clients and associates are well, despite the unusual and difficult circumstances we are all facing at the moment.   We wish

The US travel ban will further add to the impact of coronavirus on the international travel industry – which is likely to be about four times as large as that of September 11
March 13, 2020

Forecasting Eye    After the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 Cebr was commissioned by the air travel trade association ABTA to analyse the impact

Budget Special 2020
March 11, 2020

Our best guess is that growth this year will be zero plus or minus a lot. If that is right, our back of the envelope

Make money easily available for companies with cash flow problems but make it convertible to equity at a penal rate if they can’t pay back in 18 months
March 10, 2020

Cebr analysis of the impact on world and UK Economy from the 2020 COVID 19 outbreak   Cebr’s Forecasting Eye from 31 January was amongst

A Coronavirus lockdown in London could cost the UK half a billion pounds per day
March 2, 2020

If the UK is to see a significant increase in coronavirus cases over the next few days or weeks, one of the more likely channels

City A.M. – Tourism body calls on government to rethink immigration policy
February 25, 2020

A trade body representing the UK’s travel and tourism industry has called on the government to rethink its new immigration policy or risk “undermining the

The Times – Care crisis laid bare: 10 years to save the system
February 24, 2020

A damning report shows pension savings and council funding are set to fall woefully short   The death of final salary pensions, a shortage of

Against a background of supply side shocks, there IS a case for increasing borrowing. But only if it buys something really worthwhile….
February 24, 2020

Against a background of supply side shocks, there IS a case for increasing borrowing. But only if it buys something really worthwhile….​   On Tuesday

The Telegraph – Government funding could reduce the number of potholes by 25 per cent
February 20, 2020

Road users could be forced to contend with more than 650,000 potholes across the country by 2030, new research has warned.   A study predicts

The Times – Monster film studio planned for Reading
February 19, 2020

An American film studio involved in blockbusters including Jumanji: The Next Level, Godzilla and Venom has unveiled plans to build a £150 million complex in Reading, creating about 1,500

British retailers are set to have their hopes dashed this Valentine’s Day with spending set to grow less than 1%, but casting a wider net may prove an attractive proposition
February 14, 2020

For British retailers, 2019 was a difficult year as UK consumers shunned the high street and various well-known traders entered into administration. The three months

The Independent – Economically our film industry is a star but will it still shine under Boris Johnson?
February 10, 2020

This morning’s Oscar coverage will perhaps inevitably be dominated by how “our” team got on at the climax to what’s been an impressive awards season.

The UK film industry has trebled in size since 2012, but we’re not going to the cinema more often. Why – and is this sustainable?
February 10, 2020

Forecasting Eye    This Sunday, the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood is hosting the 92nd Academy Awards. The night is expected to be the culmination of

Yorkshire Post – Social care providers in Yorkshire are having to make cuts due to financial pressures
February 6, 2020

HfT’s research was carried out by economic consultancy Cebr.   The charity is now calling on the Department for Health and Social Care to bring

The Guardian – Fears of global economic slowdown as virus follows trade war
February 3, 2020

China, and the world, were already burdened by tariffs. Now, some say the coronavirus could undermine fragile growth   In 2002, Sars spread virtually unchecked to 37

The Telegraph – Renminbi trading hits record levels in the City of London
February 3, 2020

Almost 3 trillion renminbi was cleared in the UK between September and November last year   The City of London has retained its crown as

The Times – US economy grew by 2.1% in last quarter, below Trump target
January 31, 2020

President Trump missed his ambitious growth target for the American economy by a wide margin last year, a report has confirmed.   Gross domestic product

Coronavirus is currently spreading six times faster than SARS. Unless a cure is found, this could push a fragile world economic recovery into reverse
January 31, 2020

I should have been flying to Beijing on 16 February. This now seems unlikely.   But my problems are minor compared with those of many others.

London Post – London’s micro businesses “punching above their weight”
January 27, 2020

London’s micro businesses are a force to be reckoned with, a new report commissioned by London Councils from the Centre for Economic and Business Research

Green taxes have their drawbacks but are likely to become more important…
January 27, 2020

It is tempting to view anything emerging from Davos with suspicion. My normal reaction when I hear that a corporate executive has attended the conference

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