The latest edition of the World Economic League Table, WELT 2025, is produced by international economic forecasters, the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), at a time of significant change in the world order and increasing global economic uncertainty. It is Cebr’s 16th annual world economic outlook report. The WELT tracks the size of different economies across the globe, and projects changes over the next 15 years up to 2039.
Christopher Breen, Head of Economic Insight, said: This year’s report finds that the global economic outlook is subject to a number of new realities. Increased protectionism is here to stay, as it is becoming increasingly necessary to boost self-sufficiency and reduce political disenfranchisement. However, the world is at risk of over-adjustment toward wide-ranging tariffs that benefit nobody. Another new reality for many economies is that younger generations will be poorer than their parents due to the impact on public finances of ageing populations. This will continue to cause political and societal frictions, with recent developments in France exemplifying the instability that is likely when budget constraints become increasingly acute. Unfortunately, one possible reality that many seem too readily accepting of is the world missing its climate change targets. Those countries making the most progress on net zero are those who see the economic opportunity in doing so rather than believing decarbonisation is at odds with prosperity, a lesson for governments facing wavering support on the issue.’
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Global GDP growth is projected to continue in 2025, reaching 2.8% in real terms, slightly up from an estimated 2.7% in 2024. However, this remains subdued compared to historical trends, reflecting ongoing challenges as economies navigate lingering inflationary pressures and adapt to the likelihood of increased protectionism.
World GDP, in nominal terms, is estimated to amount to $110 trillion for 2024 as a whole and will double to $221 trillion by 2039. The bulk of the growth will reflect catch-up between previously less developed economies and more mature economies.
Amid ongoing challenges in China's property sector and subdued domestic demand, early evidence suggests that recent stimulus measures – such as interest rate cuts and local government debt restructuring – have supported growth. However, given the lagged impact of these policies and persistent economic headwinds, we now project that China will not overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in the next 15 years, reflecting a more tempered outlook for its long-term trajectory.
India is firmly on track to solidify its position as a global economic powerhouse. By 2025, it is projected to supplant Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy. In 2028, it is expected to cross the $5 trillion milestone and by 2029, overtake Germany, securing its place as the world’s third-largest economy. Looking further ahead, India is expected to become a $10 trillion economy by 2036, highlighting its long-term potential as a key driver of global economic growth.
The relative positions of the main European economies are not forecast to change much. However, while the UK economy is expected to be 13.7% larger than France in 2024, this gap is forecast to widen to 25.2% by 2039. Similarly, while Germany’s economy is currently estimated to be 30.7% bigger than the UK’s, this lead is projected to shrink dramatically to just 19.8% by 2039. This exacerbation of trends outlined in WELT 2024 reflect a poorer growth outlook for France and Germany compared to the UK, underscoring a divergence in the economic trajectories of Europe’s key players.
By 2039, the UK is projected to rise one place to rank 21st globally in GDP per capita. While this outlook is markedly better than key European peers like France and Germany, both of whom are expected to slip, this reflects a relatively poorer outlook for Eurozone economies rather than strong UK growth.
The report includes:
- An economic outlook report on every country in the world
- A chapter outlining global economic trends impacting the outlook for 2025
- GDP forecasts over the next 15 years for every country in the world
- *NEW FOR 2025* GDP per capita forecasts over the next 15 years for every country in the world