Blogs

US tariffs would reduce GDP by 0.9%, but Trump’s presidency provides strategic opportunities for UK
November 18, 2024

The re-election of Donald Trump could reshape global dynamics, particularly in trade, energy, and environmental policy. Amongst the new president’s ‘America First’ policies are proposals for

Autumn Budget 2024
October 30, 2024

To view our detailed analysis of the Autumn Budget 2024, access Cebr’s latest note here, where we break down the key fiscal measures, revenue implications,

Escalated Middle East war could reduce global GDP by £311 billion in 2025 through higher oil prices
October 21, 2024

Roughly one year ago, tensions started to heighten in the Middle East, leading to Israel now battling both Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and Lebanon,

Rethinking the Government’s approach to landlords: how policy has driven rents up by 4% since 2017
September 23, 2024

Rental prices in England have surged recently, growing by 8.6% in the year ending July 2024. From 2017 to 2023, rents have risen by a

UK economy facing £2.8 billion shortfall in tourist spending but policy reversal could help to plug the gap
August 19, 2024

More than four years on from the onset of the pandemic, there are still lingering effects across the economy. Amongst others, productivity growth has stalled,

Bridging Britain’s energy future: Sharing the £1.6 trillion energy infrastructure costs with private-public partnership
July 19, 2024

The new government faces a daunting challenge with its energy policy. As the UK becomes increasingly reliant on electricity, the risks of power shortages grow.

Unless the productivity trends in both the private and public sectors can be turned round, there is a 10% of GDP black hole in public finances
June 24, 2024

Rachel Reeves, the expected incoming Chancellor, made it clear in her Mais lecture[1] in March 2024 that she will largely keep the current government’s fiscal

The average worker produced £149 more in Q1 relative to a year earlier, but only at the cost of working three additional hours
May 20, 2024

Each UK worker produced 0.8% more output in Q1 2024 than the same period one year ago, equivalent to £149 each. However, this was only

Claims that Poland will be richer than the UK this decade are overambitious but only just
May 13, 2024

Donald Tusk, Polish Prime Minister and ex-President of the European Council, made a splash recently when he promised that the Polish would be richer than

Poor economic growth to leave Welsh GDP per capita £1,100 short of pre-pandemic levels this year
May 6, 2024

The UK’s economic performance in recent years has largely been described as sluggish. Beneath the negativity at the headline level lie figures showing even worse

The pothole crisis is costing £14.4 billion a year in economic damage in England alone
April 29, 2024

First ever full economic analysis of the impact of potholes in the UK evaluates the full cost in damage, accidents (especially to cyclists), time wasted

Unpaid household services would nearly double GDP if captured, painting a rosier picture for growth during the pandemic
April 21, 2024

Unpaid household services, which are not captured in normal economic statistics, are estimated to have been worth £1.9 trillion in the UK in 2021, according

Renters continue to bear the brunt of the cost-of-living crisis, facing additional housing costs of £2,000 per year
April 15, 2024

Recent figures point to a slightly rosier landscape for the UK consumer. Inflation is on a downward trajectory, while earnings growth remains historically elevated, supporting

Equity markets performing strongly but UK stocks held back by a number of market-specific issues
April 8, 2024

In Cebr’s Top Ten for Twenty Four we argued ‘The outlook for bond and equity markets is the best for many years, though some of

Easter week to mark a turning point in consumer prospects, with spending set to eclipse £11.4 billion, up 5.7% on last Easter, despite the weather
March 30, 2024

Easter weekend typically stands out as a highlight for retailers, as shoppers are enticed to venture out and make the most of the long bank

Remote working artificially boosts London’s economy by £8 billion, at the expense of the East and South East
March 24, 2024

Amongst the plentiful economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, arguably the most significant has been the acceleration in the adoption of remote working. In addition to

The Chancellor’s approach to boosting growth in the Budget was short-sighted. The next government should provide the long-term policy certainty businesses need to invest
March 18, 2024

The headlines from the recent Spring Budget were rightly dominated by the 2p decrease in National Insurance Contributions, given it will make a notable difference

EMPOWERING COMMUNITIES: ECONOMIC & SOCIAL GAINS OF HOUSING INITIATIVES
March 5, 2024

Swift Economic Boost In recently published research by Shelter and the National Housing Federation, executed by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a compelling case

UK economy to receive £8.6 billion boost from this week’s leap year day, increasing growth by 0.3 percentage points
February 29, 2024

Cebr analysis published last week considered the effect of the leap year day on earnings. In this short follow-up note, we present our estimates of

Non-salaried workers to earn an extra £530 million due to next week’s leap year day
February 26, 2024

Thanks to Pope Gregory XIII’s overhaul of the shoddy Julian calendar in 1582, 2024 is a leap year. Relative to 2023, England will see three extra

Assessments of the labour market remain subject to uncertainty, but this should not deter the Bank of England from cutting rates
February 19, 2024

In October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) unexpectedly pulled the plug on the publication of some of its flagship labour market statistics, covering metrics

House price growth could be dampened by Gove’s planning reforms, experts say
February 15, 2024

Office buildings struggling to meet higher energy efficiency standards could be used to increase housing supply, according to experts. House price growth could be dampened

UK house prices still falling, but the outlook for 2024 is changing course
February 12, 2024

The UK housing market has faced a period of significant headwinds, with elevated mortgage rates, a sluggish economy, and a cost-of-living crisis all contributing towards

Cebr raises its forecasts for corporate insolvencies in 2024 from 28,000 to 33,000
February 5, 2024

In September last year, Cebr predicted that we would see 7,000 companies going insolvent each quarter in the UK in 2024 [1]. When the data came

Hunt must scrap the tourist tax if the UK wants to stay competitive
February 1, 2024

The tourist tax is causing the UK to fall behind European rivals Ahead of his Spring Budget, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is casting around for measures

With an expected recession in the rear-view mirror, the UK’s prospects for 2024 have improved
January 29, 2024

The UK economy has battled sluggish growth for years. Though shocks such as the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis take a large share of the blame,

The economic case for gender equality in the workplace and the need for further government action
January 25, 2024

In this piece, Professor Vicky Pryce, Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), discusses the sources of gender inequality in the UK’s economy, as well

Are tax increases starting to suffer from the law of diminishing returns?
January 22, 2024

The September UK borrowing figures indicated to the OBR that borrowing was running £19.8 billion below forecast. Just two months later, the November data showed

People who see a financial planner have better quality of life
January 18, 2024

People who see a financial planner have a better quality of life and more financial confidence than those who don’t, according to the CISI and

More generous childcare support would make the UK more attractive to international talent
January 12, 2024

Arguments in favour of government childcare support are often built on emotional pillars, pleading to one’s sense of righteousness – we should help parents with

Bank of Family saves young parents £38bn per year in childcare costs
January 11, 2024

In the last year, almost half (42%) of parents and grandparents aged 55 and over have assisted younger family members with childcare. Those who have

An expected recovery in disposable income might encourage a late election but is unlikely to change its result
January 8, 2024

We are predicting a recovery in disposable income which might encourage a late election but is unlikely to be sufficient to change the result. The

Top Ten for Twenty Four – A year of political change, economic clouds gradually lifting, debt problems lingering, England favourites for a soccer competition, and break dancing a new Olympic sport
January 1, 2024

Our main forecast a year ago was that the UK would suffer a recession. Although the latest data released just before Christmas suggests that a

The cost of Christmas is up nearly a quarter in three years
December 11, 2023

Last year’s Christmas season was the weakest for retailers since 1998, with elevated inflation and reduced consumer spending power leading to a significant cutback in

Scotland’s Entrepreneurial Spirit Drives Growth and Revenue
December 4, 2023

Scotland stands out as the most entrepreneurial of the UK’s devolved nations, with a high number of well-established entrepreneurs. According to research from YFM Equity

Failing to plan for migration means many of its significant benefits are lost
December 4, 2023

At the time of Brexit, few thought it would be followed by a two- to three-fold increase in net migration INTO the UK. Yet new

Autumn Statement: Cebr’s Immediate Review
November 22, 2023

“The Chancellor has delivered an Autumn Statement that rightly focuses on tackling the UK’s main economic problem, stagnant long-term growth. The only way to sustainably

Vaping is big business in Britain
November 21, 2023

But a government consultation may signal a crackdown. Even after Britain’s ban on indoor smoking came into force in 2007, the smell of cigarette smoke was

National Grid’s optimistic approach leaves our energy system vulnerable to black swan events
November 20, 2023

With the clocks going back and the nights drawing in, once again it is time to assess the likelihood of the lights going out this

Chinese tourists are returning to London, but spending far less
November 15, 2023

CHINESE tourists are returning to London after restrictions on travel were lifted, but they are spending dramatically less than before the pandemic. The New West End

Bank of England review into forecast failings must focus on the people, not just the models
November 13, 2023

“Central banks have come under fire for missing their inflation targets, but at least as much because their inflation forecasts have really missed outturns.” This

First time buyer economy worth £74.1bn by 2025
November 6, 2023

The value of the first time buyer (FTB) economy, comprised of lending and spending, is set to reach a total of £74.1bn by 2025, according

Covid lockdowns cost at least £118 billion in lost GDP, but what did it save?
November 6, 2023

Our conservative estimates are that lockdowns cost £118 billion in lost GDP, and possibly more than that in additional public spending. The current Covid Inquiry

The new normal – interest rates are likely to settle well above zero
October 30, 2023

Over the past few years, the world economy has faced a number of shocks that can be described as anything but ‘normal’. Global GDP fell

Revealed: The hidden cost of ignoring women’s health in the workplace
October 26, 2023

The latest economic modelling from AXA Health and Centre of Economic and Business Research shows that when businesses neglect women’s health in the workplace, the UK

Financial wellbeing and productivity in the workplace
October 25, 2023

Download the full report here This report represents an update to prior research conducted by Cebr and Aegon regarding financial wellbeing and its implications for

Cloud of uncertainty darkens over the Bank of England amidst doubts over ONS data
October 20, 2023

We expect the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold interest rates steady when they meet early next month, following confusing signals

Why beating the ‘digital drag’ could help your small business thrive
October 16, 2023

These businesses have faced immense challenges with sky high inflation, reduced consumer spending and record late payments making things increasingly hard. Despite this, the smallest

Despite their differences the French and the UK economies have achieved remarkably similar growth
October 16, 2023

The British and the French like to think of themselves as belonging to two very different countries, both culturally and economically. Looking at the data,

A rise in bond yields could stop the MPC raising rates further – yet another example of the Law of Self Contradicting Expectations
October 5, 2023

In an eerie repetition of the bond squeeze a year ago, which was caused by a combination of Bank of England failures and a bad

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