Blogs

Peking to Paris Fundraiser
May 28, 2019

Doug and Mike McWilliams are participating in the Peking to Paris 2019  Endurance Rally and are raising money for the Harinder Veriah Trust to help

We start in the centre of the world. And get lost (for the first time….)
May 28, 2019

We are in Beijing for the start of the rally. Although it is not the largest city in the world (Tokyo) or even the largest

China Daily – Belt and Road set to transform global economy
May 27, 2019

Initiative likely to raise world GDP by 4.2 percent in 2040, major economics report says   China’s Belt and Road Initiative is likely to boost

The Belt and Road initiative. Fewer kilometres than the Roman road network but more infrastructure of other kinds. And built ten times more quickly….
May 20, 2019

Forecasting Eye   At 11 am Beijing time on Monday 27 May Cebr will hold a press conference in Beijing to launch its report on

City A.M – Eurozone core rate revised up as inflation hits estimates
May 17, 2019

Consumer prices in the bloc rose 1.7 per cent higher year-on-year from 1.4 per cent in March, according to EU statistics agency Eurostat.   The

Evening Standard – Immigration curbs will sour thriving Flat White economy
May 14, 2019

The British Business Bank does not always get the high profile it deserves. Its annual report showed it had supported 27,000 businesses and had £2.1

Spanish unemployment has started to rise sharply. Is the star of the European economy losing its shine?
May 13, 2019

Forecasting Eye   Four of us from the Cebr team were in Spain for different reasons last week. I had the great good fortune to

Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams speaks to the Power 50 Gaming Conference in Marbella
May 7, 2019

Douglas’s speech took place at the Puente Romano Resort and looked at the world economy and regulatory environment for gaming and gambling.    

The Times – We can’t just go on hoarding like this for Brexit
May 7, 2019

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) estimates that spending on new factories and equipment fell by 1.1% in the three months to the

The average Dutch person works a 29 hour week. We could too, if we increased hourly productivity, reduced housing costs and reformed the public sector.
May 6, 2019

Forecasting Eye    It’s interesting that there doesn’t seem to be much of a rush hour in Amsterdam on a Friday morning as I discovered

The Times – Scotch whisky puts spirit into economy
April 30, 2019

The gin renaissance may be a long way from fizzling out, but the spirit is unlikely to match the economic contribution of Scotch whisky any

BBC News – Scotch whisky ‘more productive’ than energy sector
April 30, 2019

The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) has released figures suggesting whisky workers are worth more to the economy than those in the energy sector.   It

Asian exports to China are down by up to 15%, but economic stimulus could yet delay a more severe slowdown
April 29, 2019

Forecasting Eye    When it comes to the reliability of official Chinese statistics, it is not a secret that it is politics that guides the

The Times – Shop sales expected to heat up this weekend
April 23, 2019

Britons are expected set to spend £11.5 billion over the Easter week — equivalent to £410 per household — as warm weather gives retailers a

Does the government know what the UK’s largest industrial sector is? And if it doesn’t know, does it matter? Perhaps yes, given Brexit…..
April 15, 2019

Forecasting Eye    You might think that after Cebr published its report two weeks ago showing that The Flat White Economy is now the UK’s

Maritime sector, which facilitates 95% of UK trade, is among the most exposed to Brexit
April 8, 2019

Forecasting Eye  One sector that has arguably not received the attention it deserves in the Brexit debate is the maritime sector, which is comprised of

Bloomberg – Digital ‘Flat White Economy’ Becomes U.K.’s Biggest Sector
April 2, 2019

The digital economy has become the U.K.’s largest economic sector, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.   The so-called “flat white economy,”

The Times – ‘Flat white’ sector gives economy a lift
April 1, 2019

They are calling it the “flat white” sector and it is overtaking industry as the largest driver of UK economic output.   According to research

The Flat White Economy has overtaken industry to become the UK’s largest economic sector. In 2018
April 1, 2019

The Flat White Economy has overtaken industry to become the UK’s largest economic sector. In 2018 it accounted for 14.4% of GVA and 47% of

A Chinese property crash could turn out to be the canary in the coal mine for property markets in the West
March 25, 2019

Forecasting Eye   Chinese property investment is hugely important internationally – one estimate even has the sector accounting for 4% of global GDP. Signs of

An extraordinarily complacent Spring Statement as the world economy deteriorates – business will need to batten down the hatches
March 13, 2019

The Spring Statement has been delivered the lunchtime after the Prime Minister’s Brexit Withdrawal Bill had been defeated by 149 votes. With the future of

China Daily Cover Story
March 11, 2019
US, China, Brexit… it’s all about international trade. But we have to oil the wheels at home too – domestic and export markets should not be seen as separate
March 11, 2019

Trade wars, trade deals, free trade. Everyone is talking about it. Trade experts now warn of trade distortions. New technologies may help, but a new

Łódź and the Flat White Economy
March 4, 2019

For those who don’t know the term, ‘Flat White Economy’ is an extension of the tech economy; it is the ecosystem that surrounds the IT

Highly skilled dual-income couples have the potential to reduce regional inequality, but they require better-connected cities
March 4, 2019

In the UK and other advanced economies growing numbers of households contain two highly-skilled individuals, each with a successful career in a demanding and highly

The Guardian – Premier League race ‘worth hundreds of millions’ to home city
February 25, 2019

Manchester could net £220m and Liverpool £133m thanks to football fans’ spending – report   Taking part in the Premier League title race can be worth hundreds

Finishing the Premier League in a top position boosts a city’s economic growth by 1.1 percentage points, worth £220 million to Manchester or £133 million to Liverpool
February 25, 2019

Forecasting Eye    With each Premier League match being watched by thousands of fans in the stadium, and millions more on television, the nine months

While sick leave rates are falling, mental health problems are rising and likely to cost employers and employees £100 billion this year.
February 18, 2019

Forecasting Eye   Many of us will be familiar with the ‘Monday Blues’ – a reluctance to go back to work after the weekend. While

The Guardian – Low pay is biggest barrier to finding and keeping care staff, survey finds
February 12, 2019

Charity’s research published as government launches national campaign to fill 110,000 social care vacancies   Four in five employers in the social care sector admit

The World Bank already thinks it is easier to do business in Russia than France. This is what Russia needs to do to overtake French GDP….
February 11, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Cebr’s latest World Economic League Table released in December had Russian GDP effectively stagnating in real dollar terms, rising only from $1,540

Post Brexit Britain – if we fully connected up the 7 largest urban conglomerations in the UK, the gains could be as much as 10% of total GDP
February 4, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Linking up cities around the world is becoming fashionable.   On the back of European high speed rail lines such as Paris

Cebr alumnus Mihir Warty gets dream job…
January 29, 2019

World Rugby appoints Mihir Warty as Director of Strategy View the article here.

Financial Times – Government policy hits regional small businesses hardest
January 29, 2019

Heavier burden of tax and regulation on devolved areas than on London, FSB finds   Recent UK government policy has imposed a heavier burden on

The end of the millennial squeeze: In 2019 young households’ real pay to increase 2.6%, while the over 50s see a 1.0% decline
January 28, 2019

Over the last several years, many in the UK have complained that young people have done less well than the old. Until recently this has

City A.M. – London commuters spend £153 a week shopping – here’s what they spend it on
January 21, 2019

Commuter spending sprees contribute £22.8bn to the UK economy every year, with London commuters splashing out almost twice the national average, according to new data.

Why the ‘Beast from the North’ should have only a minimal effect on the economy and on energy supplies this year despite Hitachi’s suspension of work on its Anglesey nuclear plant
January 21, 2019

Forecasting Eye   In mid-February last year we issued a “Buy Candles” warning in the office: a large high pressure system building over Scandinavia might

City A.M. – Retail sales fall as ‘suffocating’ Brexit uncertainty envelopes UK high streets
January 18, 2019

Retailers suffered a weak end to 2018 as Brexit uncertainty saw shoppers spending less in the face of Brexit uncertainty, the latest data shows today.

The Rotterdam Effect: myth or £18 billion false boost to UK-EU trade?
January 14, 2019

Forecasting Eye    The Port of Rotterdam is one of the busiest in the world, servicing 13.7 million containers in 2017 [1], and facilitating a

Evening Standard – Economic growth halves as confidence ebbs away amid Brexit uncertainty
January 11, 2019

Access the full article here.   Britain’s economic growth has halved since the summer against a backdrop of Brexit chaos and the threat of global

China Daily – Asian economies poised to take huge strides
January 8, 2019

Asian economies will witness significant growth in the next 15 years, according to a new analysis.   China is set to overtake the United States

China Daily – Nation to step closer to prosperity goal
January 8, 2019

“Some observers expect US growth, which hit 4.2 percent in the middle of last year, to slow this year as the boost delivered by Trump’s

Many happy returns of Christmas – £4.8 billion worth of online sales may be making their way back to retailers, distorting the official retail sales data for November upwards by about 0.5%
January 7, 2019

Forecasting Eye   According to the ONS, online spending as a share of all retail sales exceeded 20% for the first time in November 2018,

Cebr’s Top Ten for 2019
January 1, 2019

Forecasting Eye   It’s time for our annual look ahead to see what the New Year will bring.   First – how did we do

PR Newswire – Cost of Christmas Leaves Suppliers Waiting for $110 Billion
December 19, 2018

LONDON, Dec. 19, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — The cost of manufacturing, shipping and selling the millions of gifts to be given this festive season will leave thousands of

The political crisis has diverted attention from an economic crisis…
December 17, 2018

Forecasting Eye    Last week was week 19 in the John Lewis Partnership financial year. Week 19 is the trough between the two peak trading

What the new OPEC, with Russia and without Qatar, means for energy prices
December 10, 2018

Forecasting Eye    The announcement from the margins of the G20 that Russia and the Saudis were cooperating on oil pricing certainly gave a fillip

Seven smart UK transport ideas… whatever the Brexit outcome
December 3, 2018

Forecasting Eye    One of Cebr’s recent themes has been to sidestep the Brexit debate to focus attention on those economic factors within the country’s

China Daily – Winds of change
November 30, 2018

“A report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research in London stated that tariffs placed by the US on Chinese goods had so far

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