Blogs

The Times – Jobs support scheme ‘will not halt rising unemployment’
October 12, 2020

Fears are growing of a surge in unemployment before Christmas as the recovery in the economy falters under pressure from a second wave of Covid-19.

Cebr raises Christmas unemployment forecast as the Opinium/Cebr Business Distress Tracker points to 1.5 million additional unemployed
October 12, 2020

On Wednesday, Parliament square was filled with 400 musicians, playing parts of Holst’s ‘Mars’, a thunderous and foreboding composition. The performance was part of a

The Chancellor has till mid-2021 to convince the markets that he has a policy to get the deficit under control but a messy Brexit could limit his fiscal options
October 5, 2020

The Chancellor has till mid-2021 to convince the markets that he has a policy to get the deficit under control but a messy Brexit could

An agent-based model of IUU fishing in a two-state system with information sharing
October 3, 2020

A Cebr report for The Pew Charitable Trusts The report can be downloaded by following this link The purpose of this research is to examine

Evening Standard – Premier League clubs’ trade deficit predicted to hit £698m as spending continues despite Covid-19 pandemic
October 1, 2020

Premier League clubs are continuing to dwarf European sides when it comes to spending in the transfer market, despite the financial impact of Covid-19.   That is

Excluding restaurants from the 10pm hospitality curfew would decrease the economic hit of the policy by £3.8bn, while still achieving the desired epidemiological benefits
September 26, 2020

Earlier this week the government announced that, in an effort to suppress the infection rate, pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants across England will only be

City A.M. – Second local lockdown could cost London more than £2bn
September 21, 2020

London could face annual costs of more than £2bn if fresh curfew measures are implemented in the capital, according to a new report.   Leading

The Times – Economy faces losses of £250m a day during second wave
September 21, 2020

The economy faces a hit of £250 million a day from a second wave of Covid-19 infections if partial lockdowns reverse the increase in people

Will the second wave stop the economic revival in its tracks?
September 21, 2020

We’ve been consistently cautious about the recovery. A trampoline bounce in Q3 was built in and indeed looks to have happened, possibly more strongly than

The Times – House prices forecast to drop by 14% next year
September 14, 2020

View the full article here.   House prices will fall by almost 14 per cent next year once the government’s temporary cut in stamp duty

Despite the sharpest fall in GDP in the UK’s history, headline house prices have risen. What is driving the UK’s housing market paradox?
September 14, 2020

Throughout August, the UK housing market defied gravity yet again, with unofficial measures putting average prices at record highs. This is at odds with the

The Guardian – No return of workers to offices ‘could cost UK economy £480bn’
September 8, 2020

The UK economy could lose almost half a trillion pounds of output if workers fail to return to their offices, a study estimates.   Douglas

Take ten years to reduce the deficit and 50 years to pay off the debt
September 7, 2020

There has been some lively discussion in the media during the past week about what looks like a leak from Downing Street suggesting that taxes

GDP could stand £70 billion higher when the schools reopen but part of the swing will be exaggerated by measurement issues
August 31, 2020

There are quite a lot of different impacts on the economy that are likely to follow from the reopening of schools next month. The most

UK GDP saw a record decline in Q2 – but how much of it can be explained by how we measure public sector output?
August 24, 2020

This month saw the release of Q2 GDP data for most eurozone countries as well as the UK and the US. The picture was one

The Times – Sunak’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme boosts ailing hospitality sector
August 17, 2020

The number of people dining out during the week has surged this month since the introduction of Eat Out to Help Out, bringing in hundreds of

Eat Out to Help Out sees diner numbers surpass pre-lockdown levels by a quarter, giving the UK a much-needed boost towards normality
August 17, 2020

When the Eat Out to Help Out scheme was announced in early July many, myself included, were sceptical. It sounded like a bit of a

The take-up of tech – this is crucial for the recovery
August 10, 2020

This week Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman of Ogilvy, in a column in the Spectator, points out that the take up of tech is much more

Evening Standard – The City is dead, long live the City: the future of the Square Mile
August 8, 2020

The Centre for Economics and Business Research is one group that feels all of London will suffer if it loses the aura of being an

City A.M. – Working from home costs London hospitality sector £2.3bn, economists say
August 3, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has caused £2.3bn of spending to be lost or displaced in shops, pubs and cafes near London employment hubs, according to new

London still looks like a ghost town – costing its hospitality sector £2.3 billion between March and June in foregone lunches and after-work drinks
August 3, 2020

Cebr opens its London offices for the first time since the lockdown started on Monday, 3 August. We plan to split the team into two groups,

Three good reasons for optimism – things could look so different a year from now, but getting there will be difficult….
July 27, 2020

William McChesney Martin served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank Board of Governors for an astonishing 20 years under five Presidents. But he is

Daily Mail – One in three office workers want to continue working from home after coronavirus threat is over, survey reveals
July 20, 2020

The study showed a demand for more flexible working, up from a tenth in 2019 The survey found 32% of people expecting to at least

Evening Standard – Saving Central London: One in four could work from home for good
July 20, 2020

View the full article here.   The number of London workers operating from home will double to 25 per cent over the next five years,

The Loungewear Economy – lockdown experience to push 10.7 million Brits at least partly into the world of remote working – nearly a third of London workers likely to be working from home on any one day
July 20, 2020

Probably the most important change caused by the coronavirus pandemic for many households is the increase in working at home. While the national lockdown compelled

As many as 70,000 e-scooter trips to work could be made in London each day. Could this be an ingredient in bringing dynamism back to the Central London economy?
July 13, 2020

Last week it became legal to use an e-scooter on UK public roads – provided it is rented from one of the Government-approved schemes that

The Times – Hongkongers could offer £40bn boost to UK economy
July 6, 2020

View the full article here.   The high productivity of Hong Kong citizens and the tendency of migrants to work hard as they establish themselves

UK GDP could be boosted by £12-40 billion from migration of skilled Hong Kongers
July 6, 2020

The Foreign Secretary has developed proposals for a bespoke immigration route for the 2.8 million Hong Kong people who currently have the status of being British

The Express – Britons set to spend eye-watering amount as pubs reopen following lockdown
June 29, 2020

BRITONS are expected to spend £210million at pubs this weekend following the coronavirus lockdown.   After three months since the lockdown was imposed on March

The Times – Rush to bar likely when pubs reopen their doors
June 29, 2020

A third of adults are planning a trip to the pub when they reopen at the weekend in a much-needed boost for landlords, new research

Spending in pubs to reach £210 million during opening weekend, though longer-term industry profitability set to be down by more than 75%
June 29, 2020

Three-and-a-half months since their enforced closure, the great British pub is set to return next weekend. Tastes for alcohol have certainly not subsided during the

Article in The Spectator by Douglas McWilliams
June 22, 2020

View the full article here.   Fact check: are Britain’s wealthiest really paying just 20 per cent tax?   Since the turn of the century the

There are increasing risks of war and famine, to add to that of pestilence
June 22, 2020

Having already suffered pestilence, do we need to look out for the other three apocalyptic horsemen from the Book of Revelations: war, famine and death*?

Get Britain Back to Work
June 12, 2020

The below is an amended version of an article published in the Daily Mail on 10 June.   The economy has started to recover from

Article by Douglas McWilliams for the Daily Mail – Targeted tax cuts, a boost for tech and 50 years to pay off our corona debt… one expert’s view on how to get Britain back to work
June 11, 2020

By DOUG MCWILLIAMS FOR THE DAILY MAIL View the full article here   The economy has started to recover from the depths that it plumbed during

The Telegraph – Full fibre broadband could create 1.2 million jobs
June 8, 2020

Installing full fibre broadband across the UK could create 1.2m skilled jobs by 2025 while allowing a quarter of workers to be based at home,

The Times – UK house prices 2020: how has coronavirus affected the housing market so far?
June 8, 2020

The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) said on April 14 that property prices would fall 13% by the end of 2020. On April

Using Digital to revive the UK – Full Fibre Broadband and the growth of the Digital Economy could create an additional 1.2 million skilled jobs by 2025
June 7, 2020

FORECASTING EYE SPECIAL The UK economy is certainly starting to revive from its coronavirus caused crash and will continue to do so as lockdown diminishes.

The Times – Confidence improves but consumers still fearful about personal finances
June 4, 2020

Household confidence is stabilising but consumers are still highly pessimistic about their personal finances, a closely watched survey shows.   The gradual easing of the

Would a short term reduction in productivity be a good idea?
June 1, 2020

Normally one of the key economic goals is higher productivity. Indeed, one of the UK’s major economics weaknesses has been the stagnation of productivity since

Independent – How an extra bank holiday could help revive the economy
May 26, 2020

View the full article here.    The CEBR thinks sectors such as retail, catering and hospitality could benefit by as much as half a billion

The Times – October bank holiday would raise £500m for worst-hit businesses
May 26, 2020

View the full article here.   An extra bank holiday in October this year could give the parts of the economy hit hardest by the

An October Bank Holiday may even boost the economy but does that mean we should move to a 4 day week?
May 25, 2020

Eight years ago we published some estimates on ‘the cost of a bank holiday’ which have been repeatedly quoted ever since. Even at the time

The Economist – London may have gone into a covid-accelerated decline
May 22, 2020

The shift could reverse three decades of ascendancy.   Before it was blown off course by covid-19, Boris Johnson’s government had big plans to reshape the

Cebr awarded 1st place in the Forex forecasting category of this year’s Focus Economics Analyst Forecasting Awards
May 21, 2020

We’re pleased to announce that Cebr has been awarded 1st place in the Forex forecasting category of this year’s Focus Economics Analyst Forecasting Awards.  

Improving the Economic Modelling of Trade Agreements
May 20, 2020

Authors: Shanker Singham, CEO – Competere, Douglas McWilliams, Deputy Chairman – Cebr and Cristian Niculescu-Marcu, Director of Economic Analysis – Cebr   The Trade Bill

1 in 10 retailers facing imminent collapse as economic damage accumulates
May 19, 2020

Anticipated business recovery time increases to 28 weeks, suggesting the longer lockdown persists, the longer it will take to rebuild Despite this, more than two-fifths

Britain’s booming lifestyle jobs – a nation of artists, musicians and writers? We now have nearly half a million earning their living from the arts…
May 18, 2020

Nearly half a million people in the UK now earn enough of a living as artists, musicians or writers to cite it as their main

The Times – Lockdown households spend £104 a week on food and home comforts
May 12, 2020

Adults in lockdown Britain are spending almost £250 million a week extra on food, alcohol, entertainment and indoor hobbies, research has found.   Consumers are spending an

City A.M. – Coronavirus lockdown: 1m firms warn of collapse if restrictions continue for three months
May 11, 2020

More than 1m businesses have warned that they could not survive another three months of the coronavirus lockdown, after the prime minister last night announced

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