Blogs

Sky News – Mixed news on economic growth, but the travel sector’s starting to take off.
May 12, 2021

View this article and listen to the podcast here. Ian King speaks to the Chief Executive, Centre for Economics and Business Research about the UK

Independent – Happiness hits record lows despite a wealth boost
May 12, 2021

View this article here. The UK’s personal wealth has bounced back to its highest levels since before the pandemic began, but our happiness and health

If we keep the present migration arrangements, it will cost an additional £30 billion a year in higher taxes within a decade
May 10, 2021

At the beginning of the year, a report claimed [1] that up to 1.3 million people born abroad had left the UK during 2020 as

Carbon Border Taxes could transform world trade, but the cost is likely to be higher prices
May 4, 2021

The UK has given a high level of priority to the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow on 1 –

The main economics question right now: Will the fiscal and monetary blowout lead to a serious bout of inflation?
April 25, 2021

We are currently undertaking an amazing live experiment to see if the traditional belief that highly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies will eventually lead to

What the first months have told us about Brexit
April 19, 2021

Download the full report here. It is still far too early to reach a definitive view on the basis of two months of trade data

The Times – Surveys reveal rising confidence
April 12, 2021

The economy is poised to roar back to life with growing confidence among businesses and consumers, a hat-trick of closely watched surveys has claimed. The

England’s outdoor drinkers and diners to provide the hospitality sector with a £314 million boost in the first week of reopening
April 10, 2021

The day many of us have been counting down to has finally arrived. April 12 marks the next phase of lockdown easing, meaning that after

Brits to spend £1.4 billion on garden centres and DIY stores this Easter while other non-essential shops remain closed
April 5, 2021

The Easter weekend has traditionally been one of the highlights for retailers with shoppers being enticed to venture out and make the best of the

The Flat White Economy five years on – now established as the UK’s leading economic sector, 28% bigger than manufacturing
March 29, 2021

Five years ago on 24 March 2016 the paperback edition of my book The Flat White Economy was published by Duckworth. The key point I

One year since lockdown: The £251 billion cost to the UK economy
March 22, 2021

A year ago this week, Cebr closed its office for an indefinite period, in light of the hastening spread of a new coronavirus. Countless workplaces

China’s net zero plan means a huge transformation between 2025 and 2060
March 15, 2021

China dominates the world market for most types of electric vehicles. The Chinese stock of electric cars at 4.6 million is 42% of the world’s

The Times – Economy set for rebound as Covid-19 vaccine raises household and business confidence
March 8, 2021

Jump in confidence to drive spending splurge Household and business confidence has rebounded to levels not seen since the start of the pandemic thanks to

The Scotsman – UK Budget: Rishi Sunak’s tax rises are just the start of payback even as ‘party to end all parties’ looms
March 4, 2021

With Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s increases set to take the overall tax burden to 35 per cent of GDP by 2025/26 – the highest level since

The trick is knowing how to bring the party to an end before the furniture starts to get smashed….
March 3, 2021

The Chancellor stood up this lunchtime with two major tasks: to ensure that the UK economy recovers post Covid and to bring public finances back

Don’t expect higher corporation tax rates to raise much more revenue
March 1, 2021

After Nigel Lawson’s great tax reforming budget in 1984, which cut the headline rate of corporation tax from 52% to 35%, I visited the then

The Great Texas Blackout is a warning; we must be prepared for a Dunkelflaute in the UK
February 20, 2021

At the time of writing some four million Texans are reportedly without power in freezing conditions. Winter storm Uri and a loop in the jet-stream bringing

Article by Douglas McWilliams in the Daily Mail – How Rishi Sunak can raise revenues without wrecking the Covid recovery
February 18, 2021

Rishi Sunak’s £400bn balancing act: With the Budget fast approaching, here’s how the Chancellor can raise revenues without wrecking the Covid recovery The last new

Institutional confidence is strengthening cryptocurrencies, but could this ultimately undermine their appeal?
February 15, 2021

In the years since Bitcoin first entered the public eye, it has gone from a relatively obscure and fringe cryptocurrency to an increasingly mainstream digital

Having access to faster data is extremely useful. But don’t ignore B2B and the knowledge economy
February 8, 2021

The coronavirus pandemic has been a challenge for economic forecasters. While we at Cebr have probably fared better than most other forecasters (our March 2020

The Times – Thousands at high risk of going bust
February 3, 2021

An estimated 1.8 million businesses could be at risk of insolvency as a result of pandemic-related disruption, including 336,000 that face a high risk of

Could COVID-19 induced innovations have started a productivity turnaround in the UK?
February 1, 2021

In Q3 2020, a record 16% expansion in GDP helped push productivity in the UK – as measured by output per hour worked – to

Forbes – Openreach Accelerates Fibre Broadband Roll-Out
January 19, 2021

Telecoms company BT’s Openreach division is accelerating the roll-out of its gigabit-capable full fibre broadband across the UK, with the aim of connecting 20 million

Reaction – Creditors will play a key role in the Covid recovery, by Douglas McWilliams
January 19, 2021

My colleagues and I at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) are quite optimistic about the pace of the UK recovery once lockdown

The Wall Street Journal – China Still Grew and Fueled Its Rise as Covid-19 Shook the Global Economy
January 18, 2021

View this article here. BEIJING—China’s geopolitical rise over the past four decades has been fueled by sizzling economic growth that regularly featured years of double-digit

After the ‘blue sweep’ the US will ramp up its fiscal stimulus, paving the way for a weaker US dollar
January 18, 2021

Once Joe Biden is sworn in on 20th January, the Democratic Party will not only be in charge of the White House and the House

Tech P/Es are at levels reminiscent of those before the dotcom crash – but how long will the boom last?
January 10, 2021

There are two reasons for expecting that the market structure in tech sectors will differ from the model of perfect competition with plentiful companies competing

China Daily – Bullish growth prospects forecast for country
January 5, 2021

View the full article here. Significant expansion expected in milestone year After a tumultuous year that most people would prefer to forget, what now for

Sky News – COVID response to help China become world’s biggest economy five years early
January 5, 2021

View the full article here. China and the US have vied for economic superiority but the pandemic has “tipped the rivalry in China’s favour”. China

The Times – Britain is fifth-largest economy in world again after leapfrogging India
January 5, 2021

View the full article here. Britain has retaken fifth place in the rankings of the world’s biggest economies despite suffering one of the deepest recessions

The world economy recovering at its fastest rate since 1976; the UK since 1941. Tourism, hospitality, tech and pharma to come roaring back in the second half of the year. But watch out for inflation.
December 31, 2020

Daniel Defoe in his Journal of the Plague Year points out that: ‘One mischief always introduces another. These terrors and apprehensions of the people led

Cebr comment on the provisional Brexit deal
December 24, 2020

Cebr welcomes the announcement of a provisional deal between the UK and the EU to regulate the post Brexit partnership. Obviously this deal remains unratified

FT Advisor – Permanent stamp duty cut could create 37,000 extra transactions
December 23, 2020

View the full article here Apermanent extension of the stamp duty holiday could lead to thousands more property transactions each year, according to research commissioned

Savings more than double in 2020, but the £197 billion question is will households spend them?
December 14, 2020

In April, Cebr forecast that in Q2, households would accumulate £23 billion more in savings than in a normal year. This note updates our projections,

Covid-19 business impact tracker for E.ON
December 9, 2020

Covid-19 has brought about many difficulties for businesses in the UK. From a loss of demand, to new policies for social distancing, most enterprises have

The Times – Shoppers will spend more on gifts, less on going out
December 7, 2020

Research out today claims that shoppers will spend 10 per cent more on presents and other items this Christmas.   However, the Centre for Economics and

Christmas spending to decline by £3bn this year with entertainment and hospitality set to lose out, while retailers see a boost
December 7, 2020

Like everything else this year, Christmas 2020 will be different. It has been a long and difficult year, and at times it was difficult to

Brexit – let them eat fish….
November 30, 2020

Last Tuesday there was a 5 mile lorry queue on the M20 near my home as the French allegedly tested Brexit procedures. It is still

Making road pricing work requires the Treasury not to be too greedy
November 23, 2020

The government’s green agenda has started to emerge in a series of announcements, mainly affecting motoring. Road pricing is again under active consideration, there is

The Sun – Raising fuel duty will crash the economy by £600m and cost Britain 8,000 jobs, report warns
November 18, 2020

RAISING fuel duty will crash the economy by over £600 million, cost the nation around 8,000 jobs and hit the White Van Man hardest according

Daily Mail – ‘Minuscule’ benefit from fuel duty rise: Rishi Sunak’s planned tax hike will have ‘tiny’ effect on nation’s finances… but it could lead to thousands of job losses, experts warn
November 18, 2020

Chancellor Rishi Sunak is considering ending a ten-year freeze on the levy It claimed 2p could be added to a duty that has stood at

The vaccine is a game changer. And the economy could revive fast. But will this lead to inflation
November 16, 2020

I opened a bottle of champagne to celebrate the news that Pfizer had discovered a vaccine. The past year has been a nightmare. On a

The Spectator – The ludicrousness of stemmed wine glasses
November 13, 2020

In 1989 I answered my first mobile phone call on Oxford Street using a brick-sized Motorola borrowed from work. Several people shouted abuse at me

Despite appearances, the UK is unlikely to be in the deep freeze under Biden
November 9, 2020

Despite appearances, the UK is unlikely to be in the deep freeze under Biden​   At the time of writing, we don’t know who will

The second wave could reduce monthly GDP by about 5-10% in the Western world
November 2, 2020

France went into full lockdown on Friday. It is illegal to leave your home except for essential shopping, to work in essential businesses, for medical

Le Monde – Comment Boris Johnson enterre le thatchérisme
October 28, 2020

Le Monde – Boris Johnson et thatchérisme – oct 2020  

Daily Mail – Middle-class jobs bloodbath
October 26, 2020

Commuter towns and seaside resorts are bearing the brunt with a MILLION more people facing the dole before Christmas after furlough scheme ends this weekend,

Political battles between Westminster and the regions are set to intensify as new restrictions are expected to lead to more job losses in Wales and in the North over the winter
October 26, 2020

On 14 October, a new three-tiered coronavirus system came into effect in England, placing areas in one of three risk categories: medium, high or very

The second wave and Brexit difficulties have derailed both the EU’s and the UK’s economy – without a deal it might be 2024 before we get back to 2019 levels of GDP
October 16, 2020

It seems mad that a Brexit deal could be at risk over an industry as small as fishing that contributes less than £1 billion to

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