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Blogs

The delayed ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars shows that the UK Prime Minister is now dancing to the beat of the evidence
September 22, 2023

The UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has this week pushed back the date of the forthcoming ban on petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030 to

PAY RISES IN THE TECH SECTOR OUTSTRIPPING UK AVERAGES DESPITE VACANCY DECLINE
September 20, 2023

The average earnings in the IT sector across the UK have increased at a greater rate than the wider economy despite a slowdown in hiring,

The recent rise in the oil price shows that central bankers cannot rely on endlessly falling energy prices to bring inflation back to target
September 18, 2023

Central bank policymakers are once again finding themselves in a balancing act as they head into the September round of rate setting meetings, hoping to

Germany needs to rethink its growth model – also for the benefit of UK plc
September 11, 2023

Following the recent data revision by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK is estimated to have performed significantly stronger than initially thought in

Britain likely to witness 7,000 business insolvencies per quarter in 2024, as high interest rates cause financial strain
September 4, 2023

There were over 6,700 business insolvencies in Britain in Q2 2023, more than double what was seen in a typical quarter during the pandemic, though

The Chinese economy – we see growing pains but not a collapse
August 28, 2023

It’s interesting that no one official in China talks about when the Chinese economy will be bigger than that of the US. Their immediate objective

Teens urged to claim Child Trust Fund proceeds: Typical account worth £2,100
August 24, 2023

New research has found as much as £1.7 billion lies unclaimed in the government-run savings accounts which were launched in 2005 and scrapped in 2011. Under the

The world inventory cycle could ease the pressure on the Bank of England
August 21, 2023

The inflation data from the UK over the past week has hinted that the Bank of England’s rate raising cycle may not yet be over.

Immigration is estimated to yield £3.3 billion annually for public finances as the UK sees near threefold increase in non-EU immigration since 2018
August 13, 2023

The latest immigration figures for 2022 showed another steep increase in the number of people coming to the UK. Based on the latest estimates, nearly

Nearly 1 in 2 school leavers in England have reconsidered going to university, as cost of living soars
August 11, 2023

New survey from The Open University shows that 49% of 18–19-year-olds in England have reconsidered going to university in the last year, due to rising

Removal of tax-free shopping costing £10.7bn in lost GDP and deterring two million tourists a year, report concludes
August 4, 2023

The analysis of VAT refund schemes for international visitors has become somewhat of a specialty at Cebr in recent years. With over a dozen reports

London Loves Business – Virgin Media O2 & Cebr data shows rural economy missing out on £65.1 billion boost
August 2, 2023

Improved rural connectivity could boost the UK economy by £65.1 billion, new economic modelling from the Cebr for Virgin Media O2 has found. The report,

Global manufacturing sectors are in recession – expect this to worsen as the inventory cycle turns
July 31, 2023

We are expecting a major inventory cycle in worldwide manufacturing over the next two years, hitting already fragile manufacturing sectors in global economies. Even in

We forecast that China will be the world’s largest economy for only 21 years before the US overtakes again in 2057. And by 2081 India will have overtaken the US. How does this affect geopolitics?
July 24, 2023

Cebr’s last World Economic League Table (WELT) published in December 2022 suggested that China leapfrogging the US to become the world’s largest economy measured in

US inflation is falling back fast – will prices in the UK follow suit?
July 17, 2023

This week brought some welcome news from the US as inflation in the world’s largest economy slowed to 3% in June, down from 4% a

How a rapid post vaccine recovery, labour market tightness and shifting consumer behaviours created a perfect inflationary storm
July 7, 2023

On Wednesday, 5th July, I had the privilege of joining Professor Sir Charles Bean, (former Monetary Policy Committee and OBR Budget Responsibility Committee member), Stephen

The US economy continues to confound expectations of a looming recession – so why are consumers so downbeat?
July 3, 2023

Over the past two years, the US has faced a series of challenges that have tested its resilience. Alongside the global battle against the pandemic,

City A.M. – Housing market a ‘ticking time bomb’ as prices slow amid mortgage mayhem
June 26, 2023

Cebr’s estimates for the costs to homeowners of renegotiating their mortgage is featured in the following City A.M. article. The housing market has slowed amid

The Guardian – Warm weather pushes up retail sales in Great Britain as people turn to outdoor goods
June 26, 2023

Cebr’s comments on the impact of interest rate rises were featured in following Guardian article. Warmer weather and online bargains drove a surprise increase in

Bloomberg UK – BOE Must Not Enter Panic Mode on Inflation: Cebr CEO
June 26, 2023

Nina Skero, CEO at Centre for Economic and Business Research, doesn’t see “the need for this complete sense of panic” over the latest UK inflation

Reaction – Inflation: once the genie is out of the bottle, it’s really hard to stuff it back in.
June 26, 2023

The following article was written by Cebr’s Deputy Chairman, Douglas McWilliams. It all looked so easy. When Rishi Sunak pledged to halve inflation this year most commentators

Bloomberg UK – Recruiter Warns Pay Grievances Could Drive UK Wage-Price Spiral
June 26, 2023

Cebr’s findings for Robert Half’s Jobs Confidence Index were quoted in the following Bloomberg UK article. A worrying combination of high job confidence and low

The Telegraph – Why Britain’s mortgage crisis risks triggering the biggest house price crash on record
June 26, 2023

Featured in this article: comments from Cebr Director and Head of Forecasting and Thought Leadership Kay Neufeld. Nikki Kopelman and her husband James Bore bought

An interest rate of 6% would mean nearly 10,000 extra home repossessions in the next three years
June 23, 2023

Please note: the figures in the report below were published before the Government announced additional measures to protected mortgage holders on 23 June. These measures

The end of the free lunches…
June 19, 2023

I was recently asked to give a briefing on the UK property market for a range of foreign investors, mainly from South East Asia. This

City AM – London homeowners face ‘grim’ mortgage cost hike of £7,300 if Bank raises rates again
June 13, 2023

London homeowners looking to renegotiate their mortgage this year face a whopping £7,300 rise in annual costs as experts warn of the “grim reality” of rising

Bloomberg – UK Loses Nearly Four Million Days to Worst Strikes Since 1990
June 13, 2023

Britain’s economy has lost nearly 4 million working days to strikes since the start of last year, with little end in sight to the worst

Daily Express – UK homeowners face £9billion mortgage rate shock with one area hit hardest this year
June 13, 2023

Homeowners will have to spend an extra £9billion in interest payments over 2023-24 as they re-finance, with rates doubling, research by the Centre for Economics and Business

The Telegraph – London homeowners face £7,300 mortgage rate shock
June 13, 2023

London homeowners will see their annual bill jump by up to £7,300 when they remortgage this year as 3.5 million borrowers face a rate shock. Nationally,

Daily Mail – Unions line up another year of strike mayhem
June 13, 2023

Sports fans face rail chaos today – with another year of strikes in prospect. Train drivers represented by Aslef will bring network services to a

Scottish Daily Express – Minimum pricing has had no impact on Scotland’s worst problem drinkers
June 12, 2023

A new study has revealed the SNP’s flagship minimum alcohol pricing policy has done little to curb harm to Scotland’s most hardened drinkers. The controversial

City AM – Our digital economy won’t pay off unless everyone in the UK can benefit from it
June 12, 2023

The UK’s economic future is intrinsically linked to the continued and growing success of technology. It is the primary driver of progress across our cities

Increase in mortgage rates expected to cost UK households £9 billion over 2023 and 2024, with London and the South East experiencing the sharpest rises
June 12, 2023

The volatility in the UK mortgage market has yet again intensified as major banks swiftly withdraw their mortgage offerings, creating more uncertainty for potential homebuyers

Daily Express – Side hustles can boost income ‘by £10,000 a year’
June 9, 2023

Side hustlers in the UK are earning almost £10,000 a year through their additional ventures, a new report unveiled today. The new figures, that form part

The Telegraph – Mortgage approvals to slump to lowest level since financial crisis
June 5, 2023

Mortgage approvals are on track to slump to their lowest level since the financial crisis as high interest rates continue to hammer borrowers, figures show.

Greedflation will soon be a thing of the past as consumers’ patience wears thin
June 5, 2023

Inflation now seems firmly on the retreat across most developed economies. While concerns remain regarding the speed with which inflation is expected to fall back

The Telegraph – Borrowing costs surge back to Truss-era highs after inflation shock
May 30, 2023

UK borrowing costs surged to levels last reached under Liz Truss’s ill-fated premiership after traders were spooked by unexpectedly strong inflation. The consumer prices index (CPI)

With global manufacturing in crisis, economies are dangerously reliant on consumer spending to avoid a recession in 2023
May 29, 2023

Compared to the gloomy forecasts at the nadir of the energy crisis last winter, recent months have seen widespread upward revisions to growth forecasts, particularly

Reaction – UK inflation falls below 10% for first time since last August
May 25, 2023

UK inflation on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure slowed to 8.7% in April, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning

Understanding the UK productivity collapse – the bulk of the shortfall comes from online shopping and the government sector
May 22, 2023

New government data released in the past week has shown that the UK’s productivity has fallen over the last year. Output per person hour in

Forbes Advisor – Household Finances: Soaring Living Costs See Millions Struggling With Bills
May 18, 2023

As the cost of living crisis drags on, almost a third of UK adults have dipped into their savings to make ends meet, collectively withdrawing more than

Reaction – US inflation eases as Fed signals end to monetary tightening cycle
May 18, 2023

The annual rate of inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), stood at 4.9% in April.

Financial Times – MyBnk calls for 30 hours a year of financial education in UK schools
May 18, 2023

Young people require a working week of tuition each year to be financially literate by the time they leave school, according to a new report.

Bloomberg – UK Loses Another Half a Million Days to Strikes in One Month
May 18, 2023

Britain’s economy lost another half a million working days to strikes in March amid the most severe round of industrial action in nearly four decades.

The Independent – Financially desperate Britons turning to gambling as a ‘quick fix’ amid historic wealth lows
May 18, 2023

Financially desperate Britons are increasingly turning to gambling as a “quick fix” as wealth levels fall to historic lows, a study suggests. The annual LifeSearch Health, Wealth and Happiness

Industrial action cost the UK economy £243m in Q1 due to lost working days, but indirect costs will drive bigger overall impacts
May 12, 2023

The ongoing wave of industrial action that has been sweeping the UK has eased since the end of last year, but with little progress being

The Conversation – Does British tourism really need the royal family?
May 10, 2023

Love them or loathe them, the royal family are up there with red telephone boxes and scones when it comes to images of Britishness. Souvenir

The Telegraph – Renters offered deposit-free mortgages, if they’re quick
May 10, 2023

Deposit-free mortgages have returned for the first time since the financial crisis, as lenders help renters onto the property ladder. Skipton Building Society has launched a

BBC – Bunting, biscuits, beer – Brits spend on Coronation
May 9, 2023

The British public is refusing to let typical bank holiday weather spoil its Coronation plans and is gearing up for street parties and family celebrations.

A credit crunch is squeezing the global economy
May 8, 2023

Recent economic data have painted a more positive picture of business activity for most developed economies. For example, service sector PMI data for April point

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