Blogs

Autumn Statement: Cebr’s Immediate Review
November 22, 2023

“The Chancellor has delivered an Autumn Statement that rightly focuses on tackling the UK’s main economic problem, stagnant long-term growth. The only way to sustainably

National Grid’s optimistic approach leaves our energy system vulnerable to black swan events
November 20, 2023

With the clocks going back and the nights drawing in, once again it is time to assess the likelihood of the lights going out this

Chinese tourists are returning to London, but spending far less
November 15, 2023

CHINESE tourists are returning to London after restrictions on travel were lifted, but they are spending dramatically less than before the pandemic. The New West End

Bank of England review into forecast failings must focus on the people, not just the models
November 13, 2023

“Central banks have come under fire for missing their inflation targets, but at least as much because their inflation forecasts have really missed outturns.” This

Covid lockdowns cost at least £118 billion in lost GDP, but what did it save?
November 6, 2023

Our conservative estimates are that lockdowns cost £118 billion in lost GDP, and possibly more than that in additional public spending. The current Covid Inquiry

The new normal – interest rates are likely to settle well above zero
October 30, 2023

Over the past few years, the world economy has faced a number of shocks that can be described as anything but ‘normal’. Global GDP fell

Cloud of uncertainty darkens over the Bank of England amidst doubts over ONS data
October 20, 2023

We expect the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold interest rates steady when they meet early next month, following confusing signals

Despite their differences the French and the UK economies have achieved remarkably similar growth
October 16, 2023

The British and the French like to think of themselves as belonging to two very different countries, both culturally and economically. Looking at the data,

A rise in bond yields could stop the MPC raising rates further – yet another example of the Law of Self Contradicting Expectations
October 5, 2023

In an eerie repetition of the bond squeeze a year ago, which was caused by a combination of Bank of England failures and a bad

HS2 northern cancellations are a no brainer economically, if not politically
September 29, 2023

The UK Prime Minister is considering cancelling or delaying northern sections of HS2. This has been motivated by rising costs, with the scheme now potentially

Wealthify Enlists TikTok Stars in Schools Campaign to Engage Young People with Money Skills
September 27, 2023

Digital investment platform, Wealthify, is today launching a groundbreaking campaign aimed at tackling low financial literacy levels in young people.  Partnering with financial and enterprise education

The delayed ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars shows that the UK Prime Minister is now dancing to the beat of the evidence
September 22, 2023

The UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has this week pushed back the date of the forthcoming ban on petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030 to

PAY RISES IN THE TECH SECTOR OUTSTRIPPING UK AVERAGES DESPITE VACANCY DECLINE
September 20, 2023

The average earnings in the IT sector across the UK have increased at a greater rate than the wider economy despite a slowdown in hiring,

The recent rise in the oil price shows that central bankers cannot rely on endlessly falling energy prices to bring inflation back to target
September 18, 2023

Central bank policymakers are once again finding themselves in a balancing act as they head into the September round of rate setting meetings, hoping to

Germany needs to rethink its growth model – also for the benefit of UK plc
September 11, 2023

Following the recent data revision by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK is estimated to have performed significantly stronger than initially thought in

Britain likely to witness 7,000 business insolvencies per quarter in 2024, as high interest rates cause financial strain
September 4, 2023

There were over 6,700 business insolvencies in Britain in Q2 2023, more than double what was seen in a typical quarter during the pandemic, though

The Chinese economy – we see growing pains but not a collapse
August 28, 2023

It’s interesting that no one official in China talks about when the Chinese economy will be bigger than that of the US. Their immediate objective

Teens urged to claim Child Trust Fund proceeds: Typical account worth £2,100
August 24, 2023

New research has found as much as £1.7 billion lies unclaimed in the government-run savings accounts which were launched in 2005 and scrapped in 2011. Under the

The world inventory cycle could ease the pressure on the Bank of England
August 21, 2023

The inflation data from the UK over the past week has hinted that the Bank of England’s rate raising cycle may not yet be over.

Immigration is estimated to yield £3.3 billion annually for public finances as the UK sees near threefold increase in non-EU immigration since 2018
August 13, 2023

The latest immigration figures for 2022 showed another steep increase in the number of people coming to the UK. Based on the latest estimates, nearly

Nearly 1 in 2 school leavers in England have reconsidered going to university, as cost of living soars
August 11, 2023

New survey from The Open University shows that 49% of 18–19-year-olds in England have reconsidered going to university in the last year, due to rising

Global manufacturing sectors are in recession – expect this to worsen as the inventory cycle turns
July 31, 2023

We are expecting a major inventory cycle in worldwide manufacturing over the next two years, hitting already fragile manufacturing sectors in global economies. Even in

We forecast that China will be the world’s largest economy for only 21 years before the US overtakes again in 2057. And by 2081 India will have overtaken the US. How does this affect geopolitics?
July 24, 2023

Cebr’s last World Economic League Table (WELT) published in December 2022 suggested that China leapfrogging the US to become the world’s largest economy measured in

US inflation is falling back fast – will prices in the UK follow suit?
July 17, 2023

This week brought some welcome news from the US as inflation in the world’s largest economy slowed to 3% in June, down from 4% a

How a rapid post vaccine recovery, labour market tightness and shifting consumer behaviours created a perfect inflationary storm
July 7, 2023

On Wednesday, 5th July, I had the privilege of joining Professor Sir Charles Bean, (former Monetary Policy Committee and OBR Budget Responsibility Committee member), Stephen

The US economy continues to confound expectations of a looming recession – so why are consumers so downbeat?
July 3, 2023

Over the past two years, the US has faced a series of challenges that have tested its resilience. Alongside the global battle against the pandemic,

Reaction – Inflation: once the genie is out of the bottle, it’s really hard to stuff it back in.
June 26, 2023

The following article was written by Cebr’s Deputy Chairman, Douglas McWilliams. It all looked so easy. When Rishi Sunak pledged to halve inflation this year most commentators

An interest rate of 6% would mean nearly 10,000 extra home repossessions in the next three years
June 23, 2023

Please note: the figures in the report below were published before the Government announced additional measures to protected mortgage holders on 23 June. These measures

The end of the free lunches…
June 19, 2023

I was recently asked to give a briefing on the UK property market for a range of foreign investors, mainly from South East Asia. This

Increase in mortgage rates expected to cost UK households £9 billion over 2023 and 2024, with London and the South East experiencing the sharpest rises
June 12, 2023

The volatility in the UK mortgage market has yet again intensified as major banks swiftly withdraw their mortgage offerings, creating more uncertainty for potential homebuyers

Greedflation will soon be a thing of the past as consumers’ patience wears thin
June 5, 2023

Inflation now seems firmly on the retreat across most developed economies. While concerns remain regarding the speed with which inflation is expected to fall back

With global manufacturing in crisis, economies are dangerously reliant on consumer spending to avoid a recession in 2023
May 29, 2023

Compared to the gloomy forecasts at the nadir of the energy crisis last winter, recent months have seen widespread upward revisions to growth forecasts, particularly

Reaction – UK inflation falls below 10% for first time since last August
May 25, 2023

UK inflation on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure slowed to 8.7% in April, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning

Understanding the UK productivity collapse – the bulk of the shortfall comes from online shopping and the government sector
May 22, 2023

New government data released in the past week has shown that the UK’s productivity has fallen over the last year. Output per person hour in

Industrial action cost the UK economy £243m in Q1 due to lost working days, but indirect costs will drive bigger overall impacts
May 12, 2023

The ongoing wave of industrial action that has been sweeping the UK has eased since the end of last year, but with little progress being

A credit crunch is squeezing the global economy
May 8, 2023

Recent economic data have painted a more positive picture of business activity for most developed economies. For example, service sector PMI data for April point

UK economy raises a glass to £337 million Coronation boost from tourism and pub activity
May 1, 2023

As May approaches, the UK eagerly anticipates not only three bank holidays but also the once-in-a-lifetime Coronation ceremony for King Charles III. With an extended

Reaction – Call for an inquiry into Tourist Tax Fiasco
April 28, 2023

The VAT Retail Export Scheme was withdrawn after December 2020 despite protests from retailers and from Global Blue, the company that specialises in obtaining VAT rebates for tourists. Post

YouGov – Consumer confidence falls for the first time in 2023
April 26, 2023

After months of steady improvement, consumer confidence fell from 100.4 to 99.4 (-1) in March 2023, according to the latest analysis from YouGov and the

The costs of Net Zero may not be net zero
April 24, 2023

The UK government’s rush to act on Net Zero is resulting in a failure to recognise that there are more (and less) efficient methods to

The Times – Effects of strikes on UK economy less damaging than feared
April 19, 2023

The hit to the economy from strikes is lower than originally feared, experts have said. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said that

Research Live – Consumer confidence down in March
April 19, 2023

UK – Consumer confidence fell in March, with the most serious declines seen in short-term job security and business activity, according to research by YouGov

The Times – Can Rishi Sunak give the economy wings ahead of an election?
April 19, 2023

Pounding around his first London Marathon last October, Jeremy Hunt spotted a placard thanking participants for “showing the government how to run things”. Given that

With discretionary incomes falling, why do we see the savings rate increasing?
April 17, 2023

With inflation still near record-highs and real wages falling, it would be easy to see how UK consumers are drawing down their savings to pay

The Telegraph – The return of 100pc mortgages could spell disasters for the housing market
April 13, 2023

Deposit-free mortgages are about to return to the housing market – but experts have warned they pose a risk of negative equity and threaten to

Mirror – Warnings over vaping amid Government plan to wean a million smokers off tobacco
April 13, 2023

Watermelon bubble gum, blueberry sour raspberry, gummy bear, ginger cola… no, not some of the sugary treats on the shelves of your childhood sweet shop,

Reaction – Energy prices drive US inflation downwards, but core price growth remains stubborn
April 13, 2023

The annual rate of inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), stood at 5.0% in March. This

Sustaining the economic miracle: South Korea to break global top ten by 2026
April 10, 2023

Korea’s growth miracle: 1953 – present In the aftermath of the Korean War, South Korea was one of the poorest economies on the planet. The

More than £200 billion has been written off the value of the UK’s commercial real estate in the past nine months. How does this affect an already struggling economy?
April 3, 2023

The UK’s non-residential building stock (excluding land value) was worth £899 billion at the end of 2020, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) Blue

The Guardian – Rising bills and tax hikes to make UK families hundreds of pounds worse off
March 31, 2023

A wave of rising bills and tax hikes coming into effect in April will leave a family on a £50,000 annual income almost £700 a

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