Blogs

A recession is coming, but probably not in 2020. We will all become trade experts. Taiwanese and Israeli elections set to return current leaders. Tech and Finance may prove the toughest issues for Brexit. Could England win a major final at Wembley? Cebr’s Top Ten for 2020
January 1, 2020

Marking our own report card,we reckon we were 100% correct in our political and economic predictions last year (copy of last year’s predictions available here for

The Times – India set to be world’s fourth-biggest economy
December 30, 2019

India is on track to overtake Germany as the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2026, dumping all leading European economies out of the top flight as

Business Today – India may overtake Germany to become fourth-largest economy by 2026: CEBR report
December 30, 2019

India, Germany and Japan would continue to battle for the position of third-largest economy over the next 15 years, the CEBR report stated   India

The election’s over, now the hard work starts…
December 16, 2019

Under PM Boris Johnson, the Conservatives have won a large majority in the general election held last Thursday. It may sound harsh to say so but

Forbes – The Economic Risk Of A Very Left Wing Labour
December 11, 2019

Thursday, December 12 2019 will be an election day in the U.K. that has echoes of 1979. That year was marked by Margaret Thatcher coming

The Telegraph – Labour’s plans to seize 10pc of firms will cause £67bn hit to UK economy, analysis shows
December 11, 2019

Stark warnings of a £67bn hit from Labour’s plans to seize 10pc of UK firms have raised the stakes for Thursday’s general election after alarming

Ten things you find out if you drive from Beijing to Paris…
December 9, 2019

Forecasting Eye    We will be holding the launch party for my book ‘Driving the Silk Road – Halfway Round the World in a Bentley

The Times – Consumer confidence rises despite election doubts
December 3, 2019

Consumer confidence rose last month as households shrugged off uncertainty about the impending general election, a poll has suggested.   People are growing increasingly confident about

Retailers hoping to see final quarter revenue boost from Black Friday will be disappointed
December 2, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Christmas period sales have risen in line with retail sales values for the rest of the year since Black Friday started to

Tory party manifesto is released late Sunday PM. Can be afforded in the short term but in the long term someone will have to pay…..
November 25, 2019

We produced our comments on the Lib Dem and Labour manifestos over the weekend. Our line was that they were unaffordable. But the Lib Dems,

No party’s manifesto can be afforded, but Labour’s could lead to a run on the £
November 25, 2019

Forecasting Eye    The Lib Dems and Labour have produced their manifesto launches in the last week. The Tories seem to be delaying theirs until

Cebr welcomes delegation of the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission
November 21, 2019

Cebr was delighted to welcome the National Development and Reform Comission, led by Liu Xilong, Director of the Division of Coal Management of the Bureau

The global manufacturing recession
November 18, 2019

Forecasting Eye   Just over a year ago, Cebr wrote about the risk of a global recession rising to one in three for the 2019-20

Evening Standard – Returns are the unknown quantity in online shopping
November 12, 2019

The new warehouses in contrast were sited near towns so that van drivers could access them and take advantage of the “extra mile” of delivery.

Independent – Nudging employers to do better on equality doesn’t work – they need a shove instead
November 12, 2019

A leading economist says the productivity gap will close with legislation to help women achieve their potential. But what about Bame and disabled workers, asks James Moore.  

Could the unleashing of women’s true economic potential be the answer to solving our productivity puzzle
November 11, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Our present short term focused market system does not lead to proper allocation of resources because it doesn’t price externalities properly with

The Times – Are we facing another Winter of Discontent?
November 10, 2019

Strike threats and Labour poll pledges have summoned the spectre of 1979   The South Western strike has greater potential for causing problems. It will

City A.M. – UK public spending set to hit 1970s levels after election, think tank says
November 4, 2019

Douglas McWilliams, deputy chairman of research institute Cebr, said: “Unusually, it appears that the choices made in the coming election will have an impact on

Unusually, this election will make a difference to the shape of the economy
November 4, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Finally, after months of resisting, Parliament gave in last week and permitted the Prime Minister Boris Johnson to hold an election on

The Times – Black Friday bonanza cannot hide the gloom being felt on high street
October 30, 2019

“For retailers, this is a hand-to-mouth existence. Average shop prices for non-food stores are falling at an annual rate of 1.5 per cent, according to

The Times – Treasury’s silence over Brexit says loud and clear that it is powerless
October 29, 2019

“Before looking into the reason that this is a strategic mistake, let us first dismiss a political red herring: that lawmakers do not have the

Composite China Import Index falls to four-month low as tariffs start to affect China’s regional trade partners
October 28, 2019

On 1 October, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) presented its latest forecast for trade growth. The outlook has darkened considerably since the last report in

The Telegraph – Retailers’ woes raise fears for festive shopping season
October 17, 2019

Stagnant retail sales have raised fears over the key Christmas trading period as cautious shoppers kept a rein on their wallets last month.   Sales

Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams interviewed in the Telegraph on his new book ‘The Inequality Paradox’
October 17, 2019

Prosperity paradox: more wealth leads to higher inequality   Douglas McWilliams believes China is a classic case of the paradox at the heart of the

Trick or treat? If we spent as much per head on Halloween as the Americans, retailers would be boosted by a £1.1 billion treat…
October 14, 2019

Rising household debt, shifting consumer preferences and fierce competition have created a challenging environment for UK retailers. Although the ONS data is stronger, the September

Cebr estimates that the Brexit-related inventory overhang will be £11 billion at the end of October
October 7, 2019

A critical issue affecting the level of economic growth in the UK in the coming months will be the extent of the pre-Brexit inventory overhang.

Cebr appoints Nina Skero Chief Executive
October 1, 2019

Cebr’s board of directors has appointed Ms Nina Skero as Cebr’s new Chief Executive from today 1 October 2019. She succeeds Graham Brough, who has

Sky News – Dementia care crisis ‘costing businesses £3.2bn’ as carers forced to quit jobs
September 30, 2019

The Alzheimer’s Society says the cost is likely to double to £6.3bn over the next 20 years.   A crisis in dementia care has cost

The Times – Exodus of workers to care for relatives costs £3bn
September 30, 2019

More than 100,000 Britons quit their jobs last year to care for relatives with dementia, research shows.   This workforce exodus cost businesses about £3.2 billion

The Guardian – Dementia care failings cost businesses in England £3.2bn
September 30, 2019

Alzheimer’s charity says people forced to quit or change work hours to care for loved ones   Businesses in England lost £3.2bn last year because

Daily Mail – More than 112,000 Britons are giving up their jobs to look after loved ones with dementia every year at a cost of £3.2billion
September 30, 2019

The Alzheimer’s Society claims dementia costs business £3.2 billion in lost hours Staff have been forced to take time off to care with relatives suffering

A weaker pound wipes out the dollar cost of higher stamp duty on luxury property – is it time the tax was cut for everyone?
September 30, 2019

Changes to Stamp Duty in 2014 upped the tax burden on luxury house-buyers.  But for foreign buyers, the collapse in sterling since the Brexit referendum

Reuters – UK consumer sentiment falls to six-year low – YouGov/Cebr
September 26, 2019

View the full article here.   LONDON (Reuters) – British consumer sentiment has fallen to a six-year low due to increased worries about job security

Your Money – 13 million households “dependent on discounts”
September 24, 2019

Nearly half (47 per cent) of households in the UK rely on discounts to afford their weekly necessities.   Millions of households across the country

Can the glitz and glamour of fashion week give a much-needed boost to the struggling UK high street?
September 24, 2019

Forecasting Eye    For fashion buyers, designers and fans around the world, September is one of the most important months of the year. This is

City A.M. – Why the Bank of England will buck the trend and hold interest rates
September 18, 2019

The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) both slashed interest rates at their last meetings, citing trade wars and stubborn inflation respectively.  

As an island nation, the UK is still heavily reliant on the maritime economy for economic prowess and trade facilitation
September 16, 2019

Forecasting Eye    The maritime sector is a vital aspect of the UK economy, providing access to global markets and contributing to economic growth. The

Politicians fiddle while the economy burns….
September 9, 2019

Forecasting Eye    While the politicians play parliamentary games, the UK economy is close to recession.   GDP fell in Q2 2019 by 0.2% after

Launch party for The Inequality Paradox, the latest book by Douglas McWilliams
September 4, 2019

Cebr is grateful to pollsters Com Res for hosting a launch party for The Inequality Paradox, the latest book by Cebr founder and Deputy Chairman

Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams Interviewed on Jazz FM
September 4, 2019

Cebr Founder and Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams was interviewed on Jazz FM’s Business Breakfast this morning to discuss today’s business headlines and the launch of

To preserve capitalism we will need to redistribute wealth more equally
September 3, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Thomas Piketty drew attention to the increasingly unequal distribution of income and wealth in many countries in his best selling book ‘Capital in

The Times – Consumers fear slide towards recession
August 29, 2019

View the full article here.   Consumer confidence has hit a five-year low with the majority of people expecting a recession before the end of

The Sunday Times – Turing Fest leads Scottish digital drive
August 28, 2019

View the full article here.   Scotland’s digital economy now accounts for 10% of the country’s GDP and is poised for further growth, according to

The Scottish digital / creative economy is about a 10th of GDP already and will keep growing
August 25, 2019

Forecasting Eye    On 20 August, the ONS released newly revised data on UK GDP up to 2016 showing the economy was £26 billion larger

Reuters – UK expenditure strains budget as Johnson eyes more spending
August 22, 2019

View the full article here.   LONDON (Reuters) – Higher government spending ate into Britain’s seasonal budget surplus in July, underlining the budget constraints facing

The Times – Can lightning strike yet again on the grid?
August 19, 2019

View the full article here.   Chaos caused by last week’s power cuts leaves industry chiefs facing big questions   When lightning struck part of

Why alarm bells should still be ringing in Whitehall after last Friday’s power cut
August 16, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Following Blackout Friday, a week ago, the reaction of National Grid, the Electricity System Operator (ESO), is remarkable: the power cut apparently

Q2 GDP – on one level it is erratic and misleading but it is a likely harbinger of a period of weak growth
August 13, 2019

Forecasting Eye    I was mentored in economics by Sir Donald MacDougal who had been responsible for ensuring that there were adequate food supplies during

Cebr staff climb the O2
August 9, 2019

For the Cebr away day this year, the staff had the opportunity to climb over the roof of the world’s most popular entertainment venue, the

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