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Your results for searching: Flat white
The Flat White Economy five years on – now established as the UK’s leading economic sector, 28% bigger than manufacturing
March 29, 2021

Five years ago on 24 March 2016 the paperback edition of my book The Flat White Economy was published by Duckworth. The key point I made was that the tech enabled sector was at least as important to the UK economy as the tech production sector. My second point was that the critical factor driving

Sweden’s weak currency puts its booming Flat White Economy at risk
July 1, 2019

Endless midsummer nights, stunning archipelagos and tasty meatballs, there are many reasons to go to Sweden for a holiday. In the summer of 2019, you can also snap up a real bargain. Cebr analysis of the Scandinavian currencies illustrates that UK workers will get the best deal should they convert their pounds into Swedish kronor. The

Evening Standard – Immigration curbs will sour thriving Flat White economy
May 14, 2019

The British Business Bank does not always get the high profile it deserves. Its annual report showed it had supported 27,000 businesses and had £2.1 billion of funding deployed since 2012 when it was set up by Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat minister in the coalition government, to foster small and middle-sized businesses. In start-ups,

Bloomberg – Digital ‘Flat White Economy’ Becomes U.K.’s Biggest Sector
April 2, 2019

The digital economy has become the U.K.’s largest economic sector, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.   The so-called “flat white economy,” which encompasses media, Internet and creative businesses such as film, music and advertising, accounted for 14.4 percent of gross value added last year and almost half of its growth. That

The Times – ‘Flat white’ sector gives economy a lift
April 1, 2019

They are calling it the “flat white” sector and it is overtaking industry as the largest driver of UK economic output.   According to research the coffee-drinking, bicycle-riding millennials of digital and creative businesses, notably those in the “Silicon Roundabout” in east London, propelled it above a more traditional part of the UK economy representing

The Flat White Economy has overtaken industry to become the UK’s largest economic sector. In 2018
April 1, 2019

The Flat White Economy has overtaken industry to become the UK’s largest economic sector. In 2018 it accounted for 14.4% of GVA and 47% of GVA growth   As the author of the best selling (it actually held the No 1 slot on Amazon for 18 hours!)  book The Flat White Economy, I take an

Łódź and the Flat White Economy
March 4, 2019

For those who don’t know the term, ‘Flat White Economy’ is an extension of the tech economy; it is the ecosystem that surrounds the IT industry in its broadest sense – from the baristas that make flat-white coffees that drive the IT workers through to the co-working spaces that host a myriad start-ups and the

The Times – Douglas McWilliams commenting on the growth of the Flat White Economy
January 22, 2018

Corrales is not alone in sensing the stirrings of a tech boom — not just on Tyneside, but across northern England. The economist Douglas McWilliams studied the growth of the digital economy in America and identified three factors crucial to success: a highly skilled workforce, cheap housing and a sense of cultural buzz.   The

The UK will need EU based migrants post Brexit for the 9.7% of GDP represented by the Flat White Economy. Best start by guaranteeing the positions of those already in the country
April 5, 2017

The UK economy’s fastest growing sector is that mix of tech and the creative sector that I named in the eponymous book ‘The Flat White Economy’ (the updated version was published in paperback by Duckworth in March 2016). New data released by Cebr today show that the sector grew by 9.8% to reach 9.7% of

Innovation £2bn won’t reach flat whites
November 29, 2016

Douglas McWilliams interview

‘Flat White Economy’ listed as new phrase to join the English language in 2015
January 11, 2016

  The phrase ‘flat white economy’, first coined by Cebr economists and used by Douglas McWilliams Cebr’s founder and director as the title of his book published early last year, has been listed as a neologism of 2015 by language experts, according to the Daily Mail.   In his book The Flat White Economy, Douglas McWilliams explains the meteoric success

Flat white economy driving London
May 17, 2013

London to outperform UK economy, driven by business services and ‘flat white economy’

The Times – Inflation fears as oil price nears $100 amid Ukraine crisis
February 23, 2022

Oil prices came within a whisker of hitting $100 a barrel and gas prices surged yesterday as the Ukraine crisis escalated. Brent crude, the global benchmark oil price, touched $99.50 a barrel, the highest since September 2014, after Moscow ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. Western leaders responded with moves to impose

Why did the authorities get economic policy so right on Covid but are behind the curve on inflation?
November 22, 2021

The labour market data out in the past week highlighted two facets of official policy: The early post-furlough employment data showed that employment had bounced back with 160,000 more workers added to company payrolls during October. The unemployment rate for the three months to September (when furlough still existed but when its impact on the labour

London seems to have been less dynamic through the pandemic than New York. Is this because of Brexit or Low Traffic Neighbourhoods?
April 18, 2022

Poor Sadiq Khan. His Mayoralty has coincided with both the pandemic and Brexit, both of which have hit London by more than the rest of the country. And yet there is a sense that he may have used these problems to disguise some of his own making, notably the negative economic impact of Low Traffic

You can’t even out regional disparities without the entrepreneurial and creative fillip of immigration!
February 7, 2022

Displaying its policy wonk origins, Michael Gove’s long-awaited white paper on Levelling up the United Kingdom and one of the government’s flagship policies, is full of historical analogies and quotes.  The 322-page epic starts with a tour d’horizon going back 7,000 years, the middle part is a detailed analysis of productivity differentials between regions, somewhat

The Greek-British Symposium 2021
September 27, 2021

View this article here. On Friday 24th September the 2021 Anglo Greek Symposium featured Cebr’s Deputy Chairman, Douglas McWilliams, speaking about the virtues of a Flat White Economy. The session was also chaired by Cebr Board Member, Vicky Pryce.

The Times – If Brexit was about taking back control, let’s ease immigration rules
May 12, 2021

View this article here. A very early official estimate of the UK population suggests it was 67.1 million in mid-2020, up by 300,000 on 2019, and the smallest percentage increase since 2003. There was a net outflow of people when the pandemic struck and, of course, the significant loss of life. It was originally thought that the

If we keep the present migration arrangements, it will cost an additional £30 billion a year in higher taxes within a decade
May 10, 2021

At the beginning of the year, a report claimed [1] that up to 1.3 million people born abroad had left the UK during 2020 as jobs in sectors such as hospitality and construction disappeared. Relatively quickly, it became clear that the figure was vastly overblown and that the pandemic had introduced some serious response bias

What the first months have told us about Brexit
April 19, 2021

Download the full report here. It is still far too early to reach a definitive view on the basis of two months of trade data about how Brexit is likely to work out. But there are some hints from the data and the diplomatic developments so far and we have tried to analyse them to

Having access to faster data is extremely useful. But don’t ignore B2B and the knowledge economy
February 8, 2021

The coronavirus pandemic has been a challenge for economic forecasters. While we at Cebr have probably fared better than most other forecasters (our March 2020 forecasts revision predicted global output to decline by 4.0% for the year at a time when many of our rivals were still forecasting growth – the latest data suggest the

Tech P/Es are at levels reminiscent of those before the dotcom crash – but how long will the boom last?
January 10, 2021

There are two reasons for expecting that the market structure in tech sectors will differ from the model of perfect competition with plentiful companies competing on price, quality and increasingly innovation. First is the economics of information. Once some research has been completed, the costs of replication are very low. So we get what I

Brexit – let them eat fish….
November 30, 2020

Last Tuesday there was a 5 mile lorry queue on the M20 near my home as the French allegedly tested Brexit procedures. It is still possible that this was a coincidence, though it happened at a tense time in the Brexit negotiations. Meanwhile a 27-acre site near the Ashford Designer Outlet shopping centre has been

The take-up of tech – this is crucial for the recovery
August 10, 2020

This week Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman of Ogilvy, in a column in the Spectator, points out that the take up of tech is much more limited by the demand side than the supply side, which is true. He then suggests that he is one of the very few people to observe this, a more dubious

London still looks like a ghost town – costing its hospitality sector £2.3 billion between March and June in foregone lunches and after-work drinks
August 3, 2020

Cebr opens its London offices for the first time since the lockdown started on Monday, 3 August. We plan to split the team into two groups, Blue and Green, and to take turns in working in the office so as to maintain social distancing. But many of our clients, particularly in finance and insurance, are not

As many as 70,000 e-scooter trips to work could be made in London each day. Could this be an ingredient in bringing dynamism back to the Central London economy?
July 13, 2020

Last week it became legal to use an e-scooter on UK public roads – provided it is rented from one of the Government-approved schemes that are to be trialled by local councils over the next 12 months. The announcement has been greeted with enthusiasm. The first UK scheme is expected to be up and running

UK GDP could be boosted by £12-40 billion from migration of skilled Hong Kongers
July 6, 2020

The Foreign Secretary has developed proposals for a bespoke immigration route for the 2.8 million Hong Kong people who currently have the status of being British Nationals (Overseas) and their dependants. They will be granted five years leave to remain in the UK, with the right to work or study; after these five years, they will be able

Get Britain Back to Work
June 12, 2020

The below is an amended version of an article published in the Daily Mail on 10 June.   The economy has started to recover from the depths that it plumbed last month. But it looks likely that, after a bounce as lockdown ends, we may then be stuck for a while at around 85-90pc of

Article by Douglas McWilliams for the Daily Mail – Targeted tax cuts, a boost for tech and 50 years to pay off our corona debt… one expert’s view on how to get Britain back to work
June 11, 2020

By DOUG MCWILLIAMS FOR THE DAILY MAIL View the full article here   The economy has started to recover from the depths that it plumbed during the lockdown.   But according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Britain still faces the deepest recession in the developed world this year.   And it looks likely

Using Digital to revive the UK – Full Fibre Broadband and the growth of the Digital Economy could create an additional 1.2 million skilled jobs by 2025
June 7, 2020

FORECASTING EYE SPECIAL The UK economy is certainly starting to revive from its coronavirus caused crash and will continue to do so as lockdown diminishes. How far the recovery will go in the short term will depend on a series of factors – whether an effective Covid 19 vaccine will emerge from one of the

Britain’s booming lifestyle jobs – a nation of artists, musicians and writers? We now have nearly half a million earning their living from the arts…
May 18, 2020

Nearly half a million people in the UK now earn enough of a living as artists, musicians or writers to cite it as their main occupation. No doubt, many more work at these occupations in their spare time as well.   The ONS has now made more consistent the NOMIS data on activity by occupation and

The UK lockdown IS coming to an end gradually. And now we need to reboot the economy
April 27, 2020

As I write I can see 15 builders working. Last week on the same two sites there were only 5. Traffic data also confirms that where they can, people seem to be choosing to go back to work. It will be odd if a politician with as much sensitivity to the public mood as Boris

Douglas McWilliams and Mikael Pawlo on the Corona crisis
April 3, 2020

Douglas McWilliams talks to Mikael Pawlo about the possible financial impact of the Corona crisis. Also discussions about McWilliams’ books The Flat White Economy, The Inequality Paradox and Driving the Silk Road. Concept discussed are helicopter money, super-babies, hyper-inflation and good capitalist ambassadors. Best episode ever of you ask our producer Farid Abbaspour. But then

How will our economy bounce back from the Corona Virus? A blog by Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams
March 31, 2020

The full blog post can be found here.   Corona Virus and the associated shutdowns have shattered the world economy. According to my colleagues at Cebr, it looks as though this year we will see a fall in world GDP of 4% or more, the biggest fall in peacetime world economy growth since the 5% drop

The election’s over, now the hard work starts…
December 16, 2019

Under PM Boris Johnson, the Conservatives have won a large majority in the general election held last Thursday. It may sound harsh to say so but winning the election is the easy part. Views in the Cebr office have differed but I had always expected that the Conservatives could win a popular vote on the twin

Cebr Economic Analysis of the Brexit Deal agreed at the European Council on 17 October 2019
October 18, 2019

CEBR FORECASTING EYE SPECIAL    Summary   Cebr has performed a quick analysis of the likely economic impact of the Brexit deal agreed at the European Council on 17 October 2019.   Obviously this study has been produced at speed and relies heavily on past work. In particular it is based on a study by

Politicians fiddle while the economy burns….
September 9, 2019

Forecasting Eye    While the politicians play parliamentary games, the UK economy is close to recession.   GDP fell in Q2 2019 by 0.2% after a 0.5% rise in Q1. The swing was largely driven by the Brexit inventory cycle to which Cebr first drew attention.   There is a lively debate about whether GDP

The Scottish digital / creative economy is about a 10th of GDP already and will keep growing
August 25, 2019

Forecasting Eye    On 20 August, the ONS released newly revised data on UK GDP up to 2016 showing the economy was £26 billion larger and growing around 0.2% faster than had previously been thought. The revision was driven by more accurate measures of the digital economy.   Our latest estimate was previously that the

Q2 GDP – on one level it is erratic and misleading but it is a likely harbinger of a period of weak growth
August 13, 2019

Forecasting Eye    I was mentored in economics by Sir Donald MacDougal who had been responsible for ensuring that there were adequate food supplies during WW2, monitoring shipping losses and estimating the impact on food inventories. He forced me to pay particular attention to the inventory cycle, something I have found a huge advantage in

The Edinburgh Festival – the billion pound moneyspinner that showcases a dramatic change in the Scottish economy
August 4, 2019

Forecasting Eye    The last official estimate of the economic impact of the Edinburgh Festival in 2015 suggested that it contributed £312 million to Scottish GDP. If true this would have been about 0.15% of Scottish GDP at that time. The estimated contribution to Edinburgh’s GDP was about 1%.   To anyone wandering around Edinburgh

Five tips for Sajid Javid
July 29, 2019

Sajid Javid will find his background in hedging emerging market government debt rather useful in his new job as Chancellor of the Exchequer. And also his working in his Asian family retail business. Few Chancellors have had such hands on experience of the sectors they will be influencing in their work.   The outgoing Chancellor didn’t

Spanish unemployment has started to rise sharply. Is the star of the European economy losing its shine?
May 13, 2019

Forecasting Eye   Four of us from the Cebr team were in Spain for different reasons last week. I had the great good fortune to be invited to speak at the Power 50 conference on e-gaming in the wonderful Puente Romano resort in Marbella on behalf of BDO. The others were paying their own way

Does the government know what the UK’s largest industrial sector is? And if it doesn’t know, does it matter? Perhaps yes, given Brexit…..
April 15, 2019

Forecasting Eye    You might think that after Cebr published its report two weeks ago showing that The Flat White Economy is now the UK’s largest sector – heavily covered not only in The Times and Bloomberg but also in the main IT press – someone from the government and the Bank of England might

The World Bank already thinks it is easier to do business in Russia than France. This is what Russia needs to do to overtake French GDP….
February 11, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Cebr’s latest World Economic League Table released in December had Russian GDP effectively stagnating in real dollar terms, rising only from $1,540 billion in 2018 to $1,630 in 2033. By contrast, Korea’s GDP, which starts from about the same level, is forecast to rise by 55% over this period compared with Russia’s

What we can learn from the laid back Swedes….when the UK leaves they will have the most entrepreneurial economy in the EU…
September 17, 2018

Forecasting Eye   The joke about Sweden used to be ‘Question: What do famous Swedes have in common? Answer: They don’t live in Sweden’. Bjorn Borg, IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad, film director Ingmar Bergman and sports stars like skier Anja Paerson and Zlatan Ibrahimovic have lived elsewhere partly to avoid tax. Abba stayed in Sweden

The Times – Is Britain being left behind in the race for 5G?
August 13, 2018

“In the UK, Labour has raised the possibility of direct government subsidies to build a network, which may be necessary to bring 5G to rural areas. The good news is that 5G is a technology still in its infancy, so there is plenty of time for Britain to catch up.   Doing so should be

Strong economies will need a marriage of the creative and tech sectors – plus migrant talent
May 17, 2018

  Future economic success will depend on a fusion of creativity and technology, according to Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams.    Douglas was speaking at Birbeck College, London’s seminar ‘Trade and Talent – The Brexit Challenge’, supported by the Worshipful Company of World Traders.   Douglas said: “Successful economies in the coming years will depend on

Cebr celebrates its first 25 years
March 21, 2018

Cebr opened its doors for business in early 1993 and  tonight we celebrate our first 25 years with a party on HQS Wellington on the Thames for our clients and staff.   To celebrate Cebr’s 25 years of existence, tomorrow we will be publishing a new study of the economics consultancy sector itself, showing that

The Spectator – Changing lifestyles, not zombie companies, are the reason for low productivity
February 22, 2018

Access the article here.   The zombie company concept was developed in Japan, to suggest that persistent low interest rates allowed heavily indebted companies (who might, at more normal rates of interest, have been liquidated) to stay in business, thus preventing the Schumpeterian creative destruction that allows the business sector to innovate and improve. It

Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams with a Spectator blog titled – Changing lifestyles, not zombie companies, are the reason for low productivity
November 27, 2017

The zombie company concept was developed in Japan, to suggest that persistent low interest rates allowed heavily indebted companies (who might, at more normal rates of interest, have been liquidated) to stay in business, thus preventing the Schumpeterian creative destruction that allows the business sector to innovate and improve. It has since been applied to

Douglas McWilliams Cebr Deputy Chairman talking to the Indian Professionals Association
November 22, 2017

Douglas McWilliams Cebr Deputy Chairman talking to the Indian Professionals Association (22 November 2017) on the way in which the Indian economy is changing gear and starting to invest heavily in infrastructure.     Speaking notes for Douglas McWilliams for Indian Professionals Association Chatham House 22 Nov 2017   I’d like to talk about four

The Times – Price of an easier lifestyle may be lower productivity
November 8, 2017

The national chronic productivity problem has been blamed on poor investment, zombie companies and bad management, but economists have now added another possible reason to the list: trendy millennials who put lifestyle before hard work.   Douglas McWilliams, deputy chairman of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, who documented the ascendance of creative Britain

The lifestyle economy – great for employees but not so good for public finances
November 8, 2017

The lifestyle economy – great for employees but not so good for public finances   Introduction   This is a short Cebr research note about an important change in preferences towards work that is affecting the level of productivity, GDP and ultimately public finances.   The thesis is that people are increasingly taking on jobs

Cebr appoints Gareth Denley as non executive director
August 1, 2017

Cebr is delighted that Gareth Denley, former director of IBM UK and successful private equity entrepreneur, has accepted an invitation to join its board.   Gareth is an experienced Chairman, CEO, and General Manager; he has held executive positions in UK publicly quoted, large global multinational, and private equity owned technology and technology services companies.

A French economic revival is great news for the UK
July 13, 2017

Renewing the Entente: Macron’s “New France” is good for Britain too   The French mood this Bastille Day should be buoyant. And why not? The French economy has returned to growth with jobs growth of 90,000 in Q1, of which 80,000 were in the private sector. Cebr’s GDP forecast for France this year is 1.6%

Cebr comment on the implications of the UK General Election 2017
June 9, 2017

Cebr comment on the implications of the UK General Election 2017     ‘Whoever tries to form a government has perhaps the most difficult mandate of any government since 1945’ ‘Increased economic stability at the price of longer term political instability’ ‘The luck of the Irish…’ The political results of the election     I’ve

Cebr Special Report – Economic Consequences of Limiting Migration
May 24, 2017

Cebr Special Report – Economic Consequences of Limiting Migration[1] This short note gives Cebr’s analysis on the economic consequences of limiting migration as proposed in the Conservative Manifesto for the 2017 General Election. The note builds on earlier work by NIESR and the OBR but is unique in looking at the dynamic effects of reducing

A Budget for Treasury civil servants – and that’s not a polite description…
March 8, 2017

Philip Hammond seems to have been captured by his Treasury civil servants. These are essentially academic types without much understanding of the real world. This isn’t entirely a bad thing, because they are serious about keeping the country solvent and inflation down.   But they tend not to understand the damage to the economy from

Lack of housing is the biggest driver of inequality in London
February 17, 2017

An economist from a rival consultancy with the splendidly Scottish name of Ian Mulherin has been all over the airwaves postulating that Britain doesn’t need any more houses.   He has argued his case well and made some points that are not only backed by the statistics but are probably true. He has shown that

Speech by Douglas McWilliams at FSB report launch
January 11, 2017

Speech by Douglas McWilliams, Wednesday 11 January 2017   As David Smith’s analysis in the Sunday Times last Sunday showed, forecasters had a good year in 2016. Most of us got it roughly right. The Cebr forecast was GDP growth of 2.0% while the current estimate is growth of the year will turn out at

Cebr in the News
December 1, 2016

Bespoke analysis in the news:   Mind the Generation Gap, a report launched this month by Cebr and Brewin Dolphin looking at inter-generational wealth management and the financial challenges facing three generations of the UK population, was covered by The Times, the Daily Telegraph, the Spectator, the Independent, City AM, the Evening Standard, the Nottingham

How the UK economy’s key sectors link to the EU’s Single Market
November 28, 2016

The following are the key findings of this report: The report investigates the relative importance of main sectors of the UK economy and their dependence both direct and indirect on trading with the Single Market. The biggest sector in the UK is retail/wholesale trade, totalling £178 billion in 2014. This was followed closely by manufacturing

Growth to remain subdued while the 10 year gilt could rise to 4%
November 23, 2016

Cebr response to Autumn Statement

Cebr in the News
October 1, 2016

Bespoke analysis in the News:   Research by Cebr for Heathrow which calculated that an expansion at the airport could boost the UK economy by as much as £24,000 of GDP per family, was covered by the Daily Telegraph.   YouGov and Cebr’s Consumer and Business Confidence Indices, which saw confidence rise to pre-Brexit levels, was

Britain’s digital economy heads North
June 27, 2016

The Northern Powerhouse is set to become the cornerstone of the UK’s digital economy according to Flat White Economy guru Douglas McWilliams Digital economy in Northern Powerhouse to grow 20% pa over period to 2020 compared with 5%pa in London North of England digital jobs to grow from 284,000 in 2015 to 622,000 in 2020

The European economy isn’t quite as much of a disaster zone as it might look
June 6, 2016

Although I am sure that Europe is likely to be the slowest growing region in the world on average over the next 30 years, it does look as though it is facing a bit of a cyclical upturn at the moment.   By far the most reliable business survey produced anywhere, the Ifo survey from

Cebr in the News
June 1, 2016

Research in the News:   Research by Cebr in conjunction with Legal and General, titled Bank of Mum and Dad, which calculated that parents helped finance 25% of all UK mortgages transaction this year, amounting to £5bn in 2016, was covered by BBC News, the Daily Telegraph (x2), Newsweek, The Times (x2), the Spectator, the Financial Times (x2),

Cebr estimates that UK productivity has grown by only 0.2% in Q1 – but with changing lifestyles this isn’t as bad news as it looks
May 24, 2016

Most economists see stagnant productivity as a real problem. And in an ideal world we would all be migrating to extremely high value jobs with high pay and high productivity. But we had a bit of a false dawn with City jobs. The number of people working in City jobs rose from 204 thousand in

The Spanish upturn is more than a dead cat bounce. Growth will slow during the year but Spain will still be Western Europe’s fastest growing economy
May 13, 2016

Spain’s economy has had a relatively successful past 12  months despite (or some have alleged, because of) the lack of a government. GDP has risen at an annual rate of 3.4% in the year to Q! 2016, the fastest growth in Western Europe by some distance while unemployment has fallen by 1.8 percentage points from

The economics of the EU referendum
April 20, 2016

Cebr Forecasting Eye

Cebr in the News
April 1, 2016

March/April 2016

London tube strikes
February 6, 2014

The tube strike is unlikely to cost the London economy anything like £50 million a day – my best estimate is about £10 million says Cebr Executive Chairman Douglas McWilliams

London’s roads must be freed
April 30, 2013

In the future, London will need underground roads, better cycle lanes and a new body to manage road space

Daily Mail – Robert Jenrick warns the UK to brace for ‘the most difficult economic year of your lifetime’
March 9, 2022

Robert Jenrick has warned that the UK could face ‘the most difficult economic year that we’ve seen in our lifetime’ amid the heavy sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The Tory MP described how the country could be looking at ‘an energy crisis unrivalled since the 1970s’ and said the government had to ‘level

Will the expected rate rise on Thursday cause an asset price correction?
November 1, 2021

One of the surprises of the Budget was the rise in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s inflation forecast for 2022 to 4% (average across the year) despite frozen fuel duties and a squeeze on some alcohol duties. The figure is in line with Cebr forecasts but until recently officials in both Whitehall and Threadneedle Street

There is a way out of the Chancellor’s fiscal dilemma. But to find it, he has to be brave.
October 25, 2021

Though his popularity has tumbled in the last year as he has faced the hard choices demanded by the economy, more people still think Rishi Sunak is doing a good job than think he is doing a bad job, according to YouGov’s monthly survey. But he is now facing multiple challenges as he prepares his

After the ‘blue sweep’ the US will ramp up its fiscal stimulus, paving the way for a weaker US dollar
January 18, 2021

Once Joe Biden is sworn in on 20th January, the Democratic Party will not only be in charge of the White House and the House of Representatives but also the Senate, following the surprise victories of the Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in Georgia’s run-off election on 6th January. It will be the first

The Impact of Imposing an additional 2p on Fuel Duty
November 18, 2020

Cebr founder Douglas McWilliams presented the findings of our report for Fair Fuel UK and RHA to the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Motoring. The full report is available here and a summary can be found below.   Rumours in Whitehall have been rife as to how Rishi Sunak will pay off the huge Covid deficit.

The Sun – Raising fuel duty will crash the economy by £600m and cost Britain 8,000 jobs, report warns
November 18, 2020

RAISING fuel duty will crash the economy by over £600 million, cost the nation around 8,000 jobs and hit the White Van Man hardest according to a new report.   Chancellor Rishi Sunak is thought to be mulling over increasing the tax by two to three pence, but the Centre for Economics and Business Research say

The Chancellor has till mid-2021 to convince the markets that he has a policy to get the deficit under control but a messy Brexit could limit his fiscal options
October 5, 2020

The Chancellor has till mid-2021 to convince the markets that he has a policy to get the deficit under control but a messy Brexit could limit his fiscal options   There is clearly a debate going on in Whitehall about the appropriate size for the UK budget deficit. The Treasury line seems to be that

There are increasing risks of war and famine, to add to that of pestilence
June 22, 2020

Having already suffered pestilence, do we need to look out for the other three apocalyptic horsemen from the Book of Revelations: war, famine and death*?   In the past month, there have been some signs. China and India are facing off in the Himalayas, never a good sign when both parties are nuclear-equipped. Cyberwarfare has

Economist Douglas McWilliams: Getting Out of the Hole
April 21, 2020

The need to distance ourselves from each other socially and at work because of the Covid 19 virus has shattered our economies which are now suffering their worst hits since the 1930s. While it is true that online shopping and working from home have cushioned the shutdown, my colleagues at Cebr have estimated that the

The Times – US economy grew by 2.1% in last quarter, below Trump target
January 31, 2020

President Trump missed his ambitious growth target for the American economy by a wide margin last year, a report has confirmed.   Gross domestic product rose by 2.1 per cent annualised in the fourth quarter, the commerce department said in its first of three estimates. This meant the economy grew 2.3 per cent in 2019,

We get muddy, see first hand how the Kazakh economy works and how it will be transformed by the Belt and Road Initiative and arrive to a round of applause and chocolates in the newly renamed Nur Sultan (formerly Astana)
June 18, 2019

Sorry that we didn’t blog yesterday. The hotel in Pavlodar didn’t have working wifi, working air conditioning or indeed, at the time I went to bed, running water even. The food was good though….   Quite apart from that it wasn’t the very best day for most of us. We knew that the organisers had

The political crisis has diverted attention from an economic crisis…
December 17, 2018

Forecasting Eye    Last week was week 19 in the John Lewis Partnership financial year. Week 19 is the trough between the two peak trading weeks of week 17 (Black Friday) and week 21 (just before Christmas). But it is still one of their 5 strongest weeks of the year with weekly sales around £300m

House prices in 2017 will continue to rise despite Brexit negotiations, new report reveals
April 6, 2017

This is a sample of Cebr’s UK Housing Prospects analysis. To sign up for a 30 day free trial of Cebr’s forecasting and analysis service, please click here. Low transaction numbers over the coming years will hold price inflation down, with house price growth expected to remain subdued at 4.1% in 2018 before picking up

Cebr in the News
May 1, 2016

Bespoke research:   A report out this month from Cebr and Nutmeg found that the UK household savings ratio, the percentage of personal savings to disposable income, is forecast to fall to its lowest level in 50 years in 2016. The findings were covered by City AM and accompanied by a quote from the author, Managing Economist

Cebr in the News
April 1, 2015

March 2015

Cebr in the News
March 6, 2015

February 2015

London set for rapid growth in 2014
May 28, 2014

Capital expected to account for almost a third of all UK growth in next five years

Private sector take home pay rises
April 11, 2013

VocaLink’s Take Home Pay Index reveals private sector take home pay is at a six month high.

Top ten predictions for 2012
January 2, 2012

Top ten predictions for 2012 include a country leaving the Euro, economic recession in Europe including the UK, a sharp fall in inflation, a successful Diamond Jubilee and a disappointing Olympics

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