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Browse releases

Reaction – Have the Chinese abolished boom and bust?
August 2, 2021

View this article here. In the last month, China’s highly successful private tutoring companies and many of its top tech companies, including entertainment giant Tencent, online retailer AliBaba and ride hailing app Didi, have all fallen foul of new Chinese government regulations and faced sharp share price falls. Meanwhile the second-largest Chinese property company Evergrande, which

Could the Chinese, unlike Gordon Brown, have ‘abolished boom and bust’ despite an average property costing 28 times average income?
August 2, 2021

In the last month, China’s highly successful private tutoring companies and many of its top tech companies, including entertainment giant Tencent, online retailer AliBaba and ride hailing app Didi, have all fallen foul of new Chinese government regulations and faced sharp share price falls. Meanwhile the second-largest Chinese property company Evergrande, which has now broken

The Times – US economy bigger than before Covid in consumer-led recovery
July 30, 2021

View this article here. The American economy is larger than it was before the pandemic thanks to huge stimulus efforts and widespread vaccination, but growth in the second quarter still failed to live up to analysts’ expectations. The US economy is enjoying a strong, consumer-led recovery thanks to the government’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Output is

The Pew Charitable Trusts – To Better Fight Illegal Fishing, Governments Advance Information Sharing and Capacity Development
July 29, 2021

View this article here. Illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a major issue worldwide, accounting for up to 1 in 5 wild-caught ocean fish every year. Now, with more States joining a treaty intended to stop IUU fishing, effective coordination across regional, national and international boundaries to fight this illicit activity grows ever more

Bloomberg – U.K. Food Fears Return as Covid Pings Spark Labor Shortages
July 27, 2021

View this article here. British food producers, retailers and transport companies descended into panic mode over the weekend as a surge in workers being forced to self-isolate hits suppliers across the country. Workplaces have seen a rush of absences after 1.7 million people were “pinged” as of last week by a National Health Service app that tells

Bloomberg – U.K. Economy Faces $6.3 Billion Hit From Pingdemic, CEBR Says
July 25, 2021

View this article here. The U.K.’s economy could face a loss of more than 4.6 billion pounds ($6.3 billion) in just four weeks if rules on self-isolation following a “ping” from the NHS app aren’t relaxed, according to data from Centre for Economics and Business Research. Since July 19 “freedom day,” the surge of Covid cases in

The Star – UK economy faces US$6.3b hit from ‘pingdemic’, CEBR says
July 24, 2021

View this article here. The U.K.’s economy could face a loss of more than 4.6 billion pounds ($6.3 billions) in just four weeks if rules on self-isolation following a “ping” from the NHS app aren’t relaxed, according to data from Centre for Economics and Business Research. Since July 19 “freedom day,” the surge of Covid

The National – ‘Pingdemic’ could cost UK economy $6.3bn
July 24, 2021

View this article here. The UK’s economy could face a loss of more than £4.6 billion ($6.3bn) in just four weeks if rules on self-isolation following a “ping” from the NHS app aren’t relaxed, according to data from the Centre for Economics and Business Research. Since the UK’s “Freedom Day” on July 19, a surge

The Kuwait Times – UK ‘pingdemic’ leads to supermarket shortages
July 24, 2021

View this article here. LONDON: British supermarkets and suppliers warned Thursday of possible food shortages due to staff self-isolating, as rising coronavirus cases threaten chaos after the government controversially eased all restrictions earlier this week. With millions of workers and school children currently forced to stay home under COVID-19 tracing rules — in what has been

The Telegraph – £4.6bn pingdemic bill as disruption dents economic recovery
July 23, 2021

View this article here. The recovery is being crippled by the “pingdemic” as experts put the cost of the economic damage from millions of self-isolating workers at almost £5bn. Private sector firms suffered their slowest growth since the economy began unlocking in April as a surge in self-isolating staff worsened existing recruitment difficulties and labour

New pings data suggest £4.6 billion self-isolation cost to the economy following Freedom Day
July 22, 2021

With Covid-19 cases exploding in recent weeks, so has the number of self-isolation ‘pings’ received by unsuspecting individuals via the NHS COVID-19 app, asking them to isolate for 10 days. This has led to a headache for business owners, many of whom are only now getting their operations back to normal after months of restrictions.

Daily Express – Risk of debt: over-55s hit by urge to splurge
July 22, 2021

View this article here. Silver spenders have been warned against going on a spree to celebrate Freedom Day, as new research shows that many risk falling into debt as they borrow money to fund their pursuit of fun. The urge to spend, spend, spend is understandable after constant lockdowns, with millions of people looking to

Levelling up the Green Book – A Cebr Report for Homes for the North
July 22, 2021

In his first speech as Prime Minister, Boris Johnson promised to ‘level up across Britain’ and ‘answer the plea of the forgotten people and the left-behind towns’. In doing so, he pledged to ‘unleash the productive power’ of every corner of the country and made clear that boosting economic performance would be a priority of

Mortgage Strategy – Borrowing by over-55s set to rise: More2life and CEBR
July 21, 2021

View this article here. Total debts held by over-55s are forecast to swell by £10bn over the next year to £236bn, up from £226bn last year as consumer confidence returns, according to new analysis. The study, by More2life and the Centre for Economics and Business Research, suggests that returning optimism will result in lead to

Edinburgh Evening News – Edinburgh Festival: The value of this £1 billion event to city’s economy has been clear for decades – Steve Cardownie
July 21, 2021

View this article here. Bold headlines proclaimed that festivals can drive the capital’s recovery, according to Liz McAreavey the chief executive of Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce who said: “What has been really clear over the last 18 months is the connection between the economy and festivals”. However I would suggest that “the connection between the economy and

CGTN – England’s ‘Freedom Day’: A balancing act between economics and safety
July 20, 2021

View this article here. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said COVID-19 was the main cause of the $348 billion drop in the value of UK goods and services over the past year. Forecasters warn that not fully opening up the economy could cost upwards of $76 million a day. “In the entertainment

Stimulus spending can’t go on forever – but cutting Universal Credit too early risks derailing the economic recovery just as it gets going
July 19, 2021

It is clear that the Universal Credit (UC) uplift of £20 per week has improved the living standards of the UK’s worst-off households since it was implemented in March 2020, helping many to stay above the poverty line. Cebr’s Income Tracker research – conducted with ASDA – confirms this, showing that the increased value of social

Assembly – US Businesses Are Optimistic and Primed to Spend
July 16, 2021

View this article here. Good news! According to a new survey of global businesses conducted by American Express and the Centre for Business and Economic Research (CEBR), U.S. companies are the most bullish and optimistic when it comes to business-to-business (B2B) spending than companies in five other industrialized countries. The Global Business Spend Indicator (GBSI)

In Your Area – Digital Minister visits Harpenden to celebrate Openreach’s five millionth customer getting access to ultrafast full fibre broadband
July 14, 2021

View this article here. Minister for digital infrastructure, Matt Warman, has visited Harpenden, Hertfordshire, to officially ‘switch on’ the five millionth home to get access to Openreach’s ultrafast ultra-reliable broadband network. The Minister was given a guided tour of the town’s exchange building where Openreach engineers have installed new digital broadband equipment.  He then helped

International Airport Review – Heathrow and UK aviation industry to support economic pivot post-Brexit
July 14, 2021

View this article here. New research has highlighted how the UK could undergo an economic pivot post-Brexit, with non-European Union (EU) trade potentially increasing by 20 per cent over the next five years, from nearly £473 billion in 2019 to £570 billion in 2025. According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, aviation will

Markets Insider – Economic Turning Point? New American Express Survey Shows Signs of Renewed Optimism for 2021 As B2B Spending Rises
July 12, 2021

View this article here. As COVID-19 restrictions loosen, the new Global Business Spend Indicator by American Express shows that Canadian businesses are spending more While still down from Q1 2020, business travel, entertainment and expense spending increased 8.3% between Q4 2020 and Q1 2021. 72% of Canadian businesses feel positive about their prospects over the

Lifting of restrictions on Freedom Day to boost UK GDP by £2.2 billion per month
July 12, 2021

In more ordinary times, economic trajectories are shaped by technological advances, demographic trends and policymakers’ use of fiscal or monetary levers. Over the past 16 months, by far the most influential driver of the UK’s economic performance has been the public health restrictions implemented in order to control the spread of Covid-19. The government has

Passenger Terminal Today – Heathrow banking on non-EU trade boost, but highlights need for government support
July 9, 2021

View this article here. The UK’s Heathrow Airport has highlighted new research that suggests the UK could undergo an economic pivot post-Brexit, with non-EU trade potentially increasing by 20% over the next five years from nearly £473bn (US$653bn) in 2019 to £570bn (US$787bn) in 2025. According to the Centre for Economics & Business Research, aviation

Construction News – The £3bn digital opportunity to transform UK construction
July 9, 2021

View this article here. The construction industry has shown its mettle during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the bounce back is now well and truly under way – with Britain’s construction sector recently seeing its fastest rate of growth since 2014. And that’s because the sector adapted quickly to new ways of working and delivering for customers after

Yahoo Finance – Economic Turning Point? New American Express Survey Shows Signs of Renewed Optimism for 2021 As B2B Spending Rises
July 9, 2021

View this article here. As COVID-19 restrictions loosen, the new Global Business Spend Indicator by American Express shows that Canadian businesses are spending more While still down from Q1 2020, business travel, entertainment and expense spending increased 8.3% between Q4 2020 and Q1 2021. 72% of Canadian businesses feel positive about their prospects over the

Aircraft Interiors International – Heathrow: aviation can deliver a ‘trade bonanza’ for the UK
July 8, 2021

View this article here. New research highlights how the UK could undergo an economic pivot post-Brexit, with non-EU trade potentially increasing by 20% over the next five years, from nearly £473 billion in 2019 to £570 billion in 2025. According to the Centre for Economics & Business Research (CEBR), aviation will need to be at

Breaking Travel News – Aviation well placed to lead economic renaissance in UK
July 8, 2021

View this article here. New research highlights how the UK could undergo an economic pivot post-Brexit, with non-EU trade potentially increasing by 20 per cent over the next five years from nearly £473 billion in 2019 to £570 billion in 2025. According to the Centre for Economics & Business Research, aviation will need to be

eTurbo News – How Aviation could be Cornerstone of the UK’s Global Britain ambitions
July 7, 2021

View this article here. New research highlights how the UK could undergo an economic pivot post-Brexit, with non-EU trade potentially increasing by 20% over the next five years from nearly £473 billion in 2019 to £570 billion in 2025. New CEBR report highlights how aviation could be the cornerstone of the UK’s Global Britain ambitions,

Airport World – Aviation can supercharge the UK’s economy post-Brexit
July 7, 2021

View this article here. London Heathrow, desperate to speed up the return of safe international travel, today flagged up a new report by the Centre for Economics & Business Research, which claims that aviation needs to be at the heart of the UK’s future economic growth. The new research highlights how the UK could undergo

DFNI Frontier – Heathrow launches quick-check trial for vaccinated travellers
July 7, 2021

View this article here. Heathrow Airport is running a trial with Virgin Atlantic to help vaccinated travellers pass through check-in quickly on arrival. The new scheme means that travellers can present their Covid-19 vaccination proof in either a digital or paper format ahead of arrival, which will allow them to enter the UK safely and quickly. The scheme, which is

Supporting a Global Britain – The Economic impact of Heathrow Airport
July 6, 2021

Download the full report here. Cebr has undertaken research to quantify the economic impact associated with Heathrow Airport. Headline results are summarised below. In 2019, the value of trade going through Heathrow Airport stood at approximately £188bn. Cebr forecast that by 2025 this will grow to over £204bn, representing 21.2% and 32.0% of UK trade of goods and non-EU trade of

On the Wight – Newport train line extension from Ryde: Business case submitted to Government
July 6, 2021

View this article here. A business case considering the re-opening of the railway between the existing Island Line and Newport has been submitted to the Department for Transport by the Isle of Wight Council. The authority, supported by Island MP Bob Seely, is seeking government support from the ‘Restoring Your Railway’ programme to further develop

Isle of Wight County Press – £67m Isle of Wight train plan sent to Department for Transport
July 6, 2021

View this article here. A business case considering the re-opening of the railway between Island Line and Newport has been submitted to the Department for Transport by the Isle of Wight Council. The authority, supported by Island MP Bob Seely, is seeking government support from the ‘Restoring Your Railway‘ fund. The plan is to further develop

Isle of Wight Radio – Newport Railway Extension: Feasibility Study Goes to Government
July 6, 2021

View this article here. A feasibility study looking at the re-opening of the railway between the existing Island Line and Newport has been submitted to the Department for Transport. The Isle of Wight Council, supported by Island MP Bob Seely, is seeking government support from the ‘Restoring Your Railway’ programme to further develop the case for

Honest News Reporter – Scarcity Economics Revives The Ghosts Of The UK’s 1970s
July 4, 2021

View this article here. The UK economy is taking off strongly after the acute covid crisis . However, this rapid recovery in activity can generate major problems in the short and medium term. The islands’ greater isolation after Brexit and global supply problems threaten to bring back the economy from the shortages seen in the

Retail Times – UK seeks to stimulate economic and digital growth with investment
July 2, 2021

View this article here. According to research, if digital investment is maintained, GDP could be £74 billion higher by 2025, £127 billion higher by 2030, and £232 billion higher by 2040. The research looked at the potential economic effect of a wave of digital transformation — powered technologies that enable new ways of working and interacting

Reaction – Is the UK heading for 1970s-style shortages?
July 2, 2021

View this article here. Most readers will not remember the shortages of the early 1970s, specifically 1973 and 1974. My parents were furnishing a newly built house overlooking the first fairway of the Muirfield golf course in December 1973 and I vividly remember them having to get the furniture made in Malaysia and then shipped to

The Press and Journal – Douglas McWilliams: Shortages and inflation fears reminiscent of the 1970s
July 2, 2021

View this article here. Some readers will remember the shortages of the early 1970s, and specifically 1973 and 1974. My parents were furnishing a newly built house overlooking the first fairway of the Muirfield golf course in December 1973, and I vividly remember them having to get the furniture made in Malaysia and then shipped

The shortage economy – if shortages cause inflation to hit 10%, it might cost 4% of GDP to get it back down again
July 2, 2021

Most readers will not remember the shortages of the early 1970s and specifically 1973 and 1974. My parents were furnishing a newly built house overlooking the first fairway of the Muirfield golf course in December 1973 and I vividly remember them having to get the furniture made in Malaysia and then shipped to the UK

The Times – Nightclubs struggle to get back into the groove
June 28, 2021

View this article here. Suggest to the boss of Britain’s biggest nightclub operator that the drinking in his venues inevitably leads to snogging and he’ll give you an earful. “How outdated!” he snorts. “Nightclubs haven’t done slow dances for 25 years. Get real!” Peter Marks’s outburst is hardly surprising given that his company’s 47 sites

BBC – Covid: Cardiff city centre working ‘50% lower’ than pre-pandemic
June 28, 2021

View this article here. The number of people working in Cardiff city centre is 50% lower than before the pandemic, according to research. A study by the The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) found the city had a lower share of workers back in the office than four other major UK cities. It found

Whether inflation becomes persistent will depend on the labour market
June 28, 2021

Inflation is back. US CPI inflation hit 5.0% this May, the highest reading in 13 years, while UK inflation soared above the Bank of England’s target to 2.1% in the same month. Even the eurozone, where a slower initial vaccine roll-out has led to a delayed recovery, saw above target inflation of 2.0% last month.

Wales Online – Number of workers in Cardiff halved since Covid
June 27, 2021

View this article here. The number of people working in Cardiff city centre has halved compared to the time before the pandemic. That’s according to a study by the The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which has found the Welsh capital had a lower share of workers back in the office than four other

Retail Week – The £21bn opportunity: how digital investment can transform the retail sector
June 25, 2021

View this article here. Digital investment is the key for companies to boost their fortunes as we head out of the pandemic, says Mike Smith, managing director at Virgin Media Business. The past year has been like no other in the retail sector. Every retail enterprise, from local corner shops to global fashion giants, had

Business Live – Openreach rolls out £112m ultrafast full fibre broadband project in South West
June 24, 2021

View this article here. Another 280,000 South West homes and businesses are set to benefit from a £112m broadband boost in the region. A national upgrade plan from Openreach, the UK’s largest broadband network provider, will mean people living and working in parts of Bristol, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, Somerset and Wiltshire will benefit with the

The Independent – Single parents bear the brunt of Covid debt as living standards slide
June 23, 2021

View this article here. Single parent households are facing disproportionate Covid debt as new data reveals they are three times more likely to have fallen into the red than adult-only households. Data seen exclusively by The Independent suggests households with one parent saw average debts rise by a staggering 44 per cent of their total monthly income

The Times – Digital dividends: how everyday tech could unlock billions for the UK
June 22, 2021

View this article here. Digital transformation is now at the top of the agenda for organisations across the UK, according to Virgin Media’s managing director of direct business, Mike Smith. “Together, we’ve made years of progress in months, even weeks,” he says. “Now, we have the chance to do things better than before. To improve

The Times – Labour shortage is forcing pay up but how long can it last?
June 22, 2021

View this article here. At £10 an hour for kitchen porters, £1,000 on the spot for chefs who sign up and £2,000 in referral bonuses for existing staff, working in the hospitality industry has rarely been so lucrative. Then again, for pubs, restaurants and hotels that are having to increase their pay as they struggle

The Times – Cities starved of billions by staff working from home
June 21, 2021

View this article here. Britain’s biggest cities are losing hundreds of millions of pounds a month in spending because of remote working. Purchases in London, Manchester, Glasgow, Newcastle and Cardiff will fall by a combined £322 million a month across their city centres if office workers continue to spend at least part of the week

London, Manchester, Glasgow, Newcastle and Cardiff set to see a total of £322 million a month lost in city centre spending as offices plan for hybrid working long-term
June 21, 2021

Cebr calculates that the coronavirus pandemic has resulted in a total of £11.9 billion of displaced city centre spending, as many workers swapped offices for their homes in major UK cities. This is the amount we estimate that workers would have otherwise spent in shops, pubs and eateries near employment hubs in five of the

Daily Express – Stamp duty end date looms – will house prices drop in 2021?
June 15, 2021

View this article here. Stamp duty land tax means taxes owed on the first £500,000 of any property has been scrapped until the end of this month, June 30. The stamp duty holiday was brought in by Chancellor Rishi Sunak as part of an array of measures trying to get the economy rolling again. The stamp duty relief

The Week – Freedom Day delay: ‘catastrophic’ for businesses on life support
June 14, 2021

View this article here. Forecasters have warned that the UK’s Covid-hit economy will suffer losses of £55m a day if Boris Johnson confirms that “Freedom Day” is to be delayed by four weeks. Government sources have told the BBC that “most coronavirus rules will remain in place” in England for another four weeks after the planned 21

The Daily Mail – Boris Johnson will make appeal to the nation TODAY as he and senior ministers sign off four-week delay to freedom after being told it will keep THOUSANDS out of hospital amid surge in Delta cases
June 14, 2021

View this article here. Boris Johnson will today urge Britons to be patient as he announces that the relaxation of Covid restrictions will be pushed back until next month. The Prime Minister will confirm that the June 21 Freedom Day has been delayed until July 19 in ‘one last heave’ of restrictions following a sharp

The Guardian Business Live – FTSE 100 hits pandemic closing high, but travel and hospitality stocks drop – as it happened
June 14, 2021

View this article here. Eurozone factory production jumps as Europe emerges from recession Production at eurozone factories picked up speed in April as the region recovers from its Covid-19 recession. Eurozone industrial production rose 0.8% month-on-month in April, twice as fast as economists expected. That followed a 0.4% rise in March, and a 1.2% contraction in

Not quite as seismic as the Treasury spokesperson suggested…
June 14, 2021

The Treasury hailed the new G7 agreement for a minimum level of corporate tax announced on Saturday as ‘seismic’. I’m always a bit suspicious when normally staid bodies resort to extravagant language. Normally the explanation is quite prosaic, like the inexperience of the weekend duty press officer. But sometimes extravagant language is used as a

The Telegraph – Delay to Freedom Day to wipe billions off economy
June 12, 2021

View this article here. The economy will suffer a hit of £55m a day if Boris Johnson confirms plans for a four-week delay to the final stage of the Covid-19 reopening roadmap, a leading forecaster has warned. Analysts at the Centre for Economics and Business Research released the figures as the Prime Minister prepares to

Bloomberg – A U.K. Economic Rebound With London Lagging Is No Rebound at All
June 11, 2021

View this article here. At London’s Globe Theatre, past is surely prologue. The famous stage along the Thames, the third iteration of the thatched-roof arena since 1599, has endured the Plague, the great fire and the violent objections of the Puritans. Such perseverance wasn’t lost on Sadiq Khan, who launched his second term as London

The Sun – Brits will blow whopping ­£3billion this weekend as Euro 2020 finally kicks off in 30C heatwave
June 11, 2021

View this article here. BRITS will unleash a ­£3billion spending frenzy this weekend as Euro 2020 kicks off in a 30C heatwave. Fans will down 50million pints — half in pubs, half at home — and munch through 30million burgers and 20million sausages. Experts say five million pizzas and ten million packets of crisps will be polished off as

The Times – Relaxing Covid lockdown rules gives boost to consumer confidence
June 7, 2021

View this article here. Easing lockdown restrictions has lifted consumer confidence to its highest level since before the EU referendum, a survey suggests. Household sentiment hit a score of 113.6 points last month, according to a gauge of the Centre for Economics and Business Research and YouGov. This was the highest reading since April 2016.

The Times – Economy to be football’s big winner
June 7, 2021

View this article here. The European football championship is expected to give the economy a £143 million kicker as fans pour into pubs to watch games. The competition, which begins on Friday, is being staged across Europe. Wembley, in London, will host eight games, including the final on July 11, while Hampden Park in Glasgow hosts four.

Research Live – GROWTH IN UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
June 7, 2021

View this article here. UK – Consumer confidence in the UK improved in May, according to the most recent analysis from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). The consumer confidence index increased by 3.1 points to 113.6 during the last month, the highest level recorded by YouGov since May 2016. A score higher

Euro 2020 will unleash an estimated £143 million into the UK economy through spending in pubs, ticket sales and stadium snacks
June 7, 2021

So far this Spring, Brits have responded to their newly restored freedoms with gusto, unleashing a wave of spending in the process. Add to this a spell of glorious weather (London is forecast to witness sunshine and temperatures in the mid-twenties throughout the next two weeks) and an England football team that looks poised for

The Times – ‘Historic’ deal on global tax rate to tackle Big Tech
June 5, 2021

View this article here. Tax experts welcomed today’s agreement among G7 finance ministers for a global minimum corporate tax rate, but warned that the apparent breakthrough left plenty of work to do. In the talks in London, which are being chaired by Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, G7 finance chiefs agreed to a global minimum corporate

Daily Express – Classic car experts warn emissions concerns are a ‘widespread misconception’
June 4, 2021

View this article here. Experts at the Historic Classic and Vehicle Association (HCVA) have warned classic car emissions are a “widespread misconception”. Instead, the HCVA says policymakers must have “all the facts” before making decisions which could affect owners. The HCVA said they would work hard to endure the facts were “properly understood”. They said:

The Times – Home loans boom gets second wind from stamp duty relief extension
June 3, 2021

View this article here. Mortgage lending fell from record highs in April, but the government’s decision to extend stamp duty relief is refueling the market, figures from the Bank of England show. Banks lent £3.3 billion to homebuyers in April, down sharply from the record £11.5 billion in March. Economists had forecast a drop of

The Irish News – Impact of cyber attacks a wake up call on level of threat
June 1, 2021

View this article here. The cost of cyber attacks on businesses across the UK is an eye-watering £34 billion annually, according to research by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). It’s a sobering figure and one that acts as a reminder to companies of all sizes of the importance of cyber security and

Travel Weekly – Heathrow opens dedicated ‘red list’ arrivals terminal
June 1, 2021

View this article here. A Heathrow spokeswoman said: “Red list routes will likely be a feature of UK travel for the foreseeable future as countries vaccinate their populations at different rates. “We’re adapting Heathrow to this longer-term reality by initially opening a dedicated arrivals facility.” She told the BBC that while opening the facility would be “logistically

LBC – Dedicated ‘red list’ arrivals terminal opens at Heathrow Airport
June 1, 2021

View the full article here. According to a recent report, the UK is set to miss out on billions of pounds of spending from passengers arriving into Heathrow if the green list is not extended as part of an upcoming travel review. Economic forecasting group the CEBR said its research suggested that business and leisure

Business Traveller – Heathrow renews calls to restore transatlantic routes
May 31, 2021

View this article here. Heathrow airport has once again called for the government’s “green list” to be extended later this week, stating that failure to do so will see the UK “missing out on a multi-billion-pound economic boost”. The airport cites new research from the Centre for  Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which shows that

The boot on the other foot – how to cope with the UK’s growing shortage of labour
May 31, 2021

They may not think so but in recent years British employers have had a relatively easy life. The combination of Thatcherite labour market deregulation, globalisation, migration and a huge increase in the number of older people working have meant that compared with their predecessors in the 1960s or 1970s and indeed compared with their counterparts

Financial Times – The Hong Kong dilemma: ‘Either you shut up or you leave’
May 30, 2021

View this article here. The 58-year-old office manager travelled to London with her two sisters and their children. Yet Vera and her family are not alone. Thousands of people are taking similar flights, part of a migration wave that has shocked even those who have made it their business to assist Hong Kong citizens to

The Eurozone’s economic recovery is finally picking up the pace – and proponents of a fiscal union see a historic chance to take the next step
May 24, 2021

Based on the economic data releases and news of recent weeks one could be forgiven for thinking of the Eurozone economy as a basket case, doomed to lag behind the recoveries of other advanced economies. Just this week, Eurostat confirmed that the currency union entered a second technical recession since the pandemic began, following GDP

Douglas McWilliams, Deputy Chairman of Cebr, explains more about our Research for Protect & Connect
May 18, 2021

View the full interview here – https://www.protectandconnect.co.uk/report Our research demonstrates that the proposed revisions to the Electronic Communications code will: cost small landowners an extra £50 million per year – on top of the £209 million per year the existing changes to the Code have already cost them slow down the UK’s 5G rollout, with up to 9 million people missing

Sometimes our most useful forecasts are those that turn out wrong!
May 17, 2021

Reading some of the media in recent weeks we at Cebr have a sense of déjà vu. Some of the stories seem simply to show how other people are now catching up with what we were predicting half a year ago. Ambrose Evans Pritchard in the Telegraph said (12 May) that the UK’s recovery might

Daily Mail – Britons will splurge £836million next week as indoor eating and drinking curbs are finally lifted… so what CAN you do from Monday?
May 15, 2021

View this article here. Britons will splash out an extra £836million next week as the nation toasts a return to indoor eating and drinking for the first time this year. Hospitality businesses have reported a surge in bookings and pubs said they expect to serve three million pints on Monday alone. The milestone will mark

The Times – If Brexit was about taking back control, let’s ease immigration rules
May 12, 2021

View this article here. A very early official estimate of the UK population suggests it was 67.1 million in mid-2020, up by 300,000 on 2019, and the smallest percentage increase since 2003. There was a net outflow of people when the pandemic struck and, of course, the significant loss of life. It was originally thought that the

Sky News – Mixed news on economic growth, but the travel sector’s starting to take off.
May 12, 2021

View this article and listen to the podcast here. Ian King speaks to the Chief Executive, Centre for Economics and Business Research about the UK economy, after latest figures showed it shrank 1.5% in the first quarter of this year. He’ll find out why the boss of one of the world’s biggest travel group’s putting

Independent – Happiness hits record lows despite a wealth boost
May 12, 2021

View this article here. The UK’s personal wealth has bounced back to its highest levels since before the pandemic began, but our happiness and health have plummeted, according to new figures that track the interplay between our emotional and financial sentiments. Unsurprisingly, the health, wealth and happiness of the UK population reached their lowest levels

If we keep the present migration arrangements, it will cost an additional £30 billion a year in higher taxes within a decade
May 10, 2021

At the beginning of the year, a report claimed [1] that up to 1.3 million people born abroad had left the UK during 2020 as jobs in sectors such as hospitality and construction disappeared. Relatively quickly, it became clear that the figure was vastly overblown and that the pandemic had introduced some serious response bias

Carbon Border Taxes could transform world trade, but the cost is likely to be higher prices
May 4, 2021

The UK has given a high level of priority to the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow on 1 – 12 November 2021, with a leading Cabinet Minister, Alok Sharma, being specifically tasked with making the conference a success. This partly reflects the country’s need to acquire a different international

The main economics question right now: Will the fiscal and monetary blowout lead to a serious bout of inflation?
April 25, 2021

We are currently undertaking an amazing live experiment to see if the traditional belief that highly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies will eventually lead to a revival of high inflation, leading to higher interest rates and then a recession, still holds true today. In the decade since the financial crisis, advanced economies were more likely

What the first months have told us about Brexit
April 19, 2021

Download the full report here. It is still far too early to reach a definitive view on the basis of two months of trade data about how Brexit is likely to work out. But there are some hints from the data and the diplomatic developments so far and we have tried to analyse them to

The Times – Surveys reveal rising confidence
April 12, 2021

The economy is poised to roar back to life with growing confidence among businesses and consumers, a hat-trick of closely watched surveys has claimed. The surveys, released overnight, revealed: • Consumer confidence has risen to its highest level since August 2018, according to analysis by YouGov, the pollster, and the Centre for Economics and Business Research. •

England’s outdoor drinkers and diners to provide the hospitality sector with a £314 million boost in the first week of reopening
April 10, 2021

The day many of us have been counting down to has finally arrived. April 12 marks the next phase of lockdown easing, meaning that after more than three months of closed doors England’s pubs, restaurants, bars and cafes will be allowed to re-open, albeit only for outdoor service. There is a palpable sense of excitement

Brits to spend £1.4 billion on garden centres and DIY stores this Easter while other non-essential shops remain closed
April 5, 2021

The Easter weekend has traditionally been one of the highlights for retailers with shoppers being enticed to venture out and make the best of the long bank holiday weekend. However, with most non-essential stores still closed, this Easter will test the patience of retailers across the country while garden centres and DIY stores are set

The Flat White Economy five years on – now established as the UK’s leading economic sector, 28% bigger than manufacturing
March 29, 2021

Five years ago on 24 March 2016 the paperback edition of my book The Flat White Economy was published by Duckworth. The key point I made was that the tech enabled sector was at least as important to the UK economy as the tech production sector. My second point was that the critical factor driving

One year since lockdown: The £251 billion cost to the UK economy
March 22, 2021

A year ago this week, Cebr closed its office for an indefinite period, in light of the hastening spread of a new coronavirus. Countless workplaces up and down the country did the same. Many were prompted towards mass remote working, while businesses more reliant on face-to-face contact ceased their operations completely. It was clear that

China’s net zero plan means a huge transformation between 2025 and 2060
March 15, 2021

China dominates the world market for most types of electric vehicles. The Chinese stock of electric cars at 4.6 million is 42% of the world’s total. For electric buses the share is even higher at 98%, for vans it’s 65%. Underpinning this is the Chinese production of lithium ion batteries – where 77% of the world’s

The Times – Economy set for rebound as Covid-19 vaccine raises household and business confidence
March 8, 2021

Jump in confidence to drive spending splurge Household and business confidence has rebounded to levels not seen since the start of the pandemic thanks to the rapid deployment of Covid-19 vaccines. The improving sentiment will raise hopes that the economy is poised for a robust recovery when restrictions are largely phased out in the summer. Consumer confidence

The Scotsman – UK Budget: Rishi Sunak’s tax rises are just the start of payback even as ‘party to end all parties’ looms
March 4, 2021

With Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s increases set to take the overall tax burden to 35 per cent of GDP by 2025/26 – the highest level since the late 1960s under Labour Chancellor Roy Jenkins – it is clear he is planning to get public finances back on a sound footing. But, in his Budget statement yesterday,

The trick is knowing how to bring the party to an end before the furniture starts to get smashed….
March 3, 2021

The Chancellor stood up this lunchtime with two major tasks: to ensure that the UK economy recovers post Covid and to bring public finances back under control. Despite the record-contraction in GDP in 2020, it was never going to be too difficult to get the economy to bounce back this year as long as vaccination

Don’t expect higher corporation tax rates to raise much more revenue
March 1, 2021

After Nigel Lawson’s great tax reforming budget in 1984, which cut the headline rate of corporation tax from 52% to 35%, I visited the then IBM Head of Tax Worldwide in Armonk, New York in my role as the IBM UK Chief Economist. I asked him if he was aware of the change, which he was,

The Great Texas Blackout is a warning; we must be prepared for a Dunkelflaute in the UK
February 20, 2021

At the time of writing some four million Texans are reportedly without power in freezing conditions. Winter storm Uri and a loop in the jet-stream bringing the polar vortex south, have led to record-breaking low temperatures across parts of the southern US.  Rising electricity demand coupled with failure of power stations means that the grid operator,

Article by Douglas McWilliams in the Daily Mail – How Rishi Sunak can raise revenues without wrecking the Covid recovery
February 18, 2021

Rishi Sunak’s £400bn balancing act: With the Budget fast approaching, here’s how the Chancellor can raise revenues without wrecking the Covid recovery The last new tax proposed by an economist was the poll tax. That didn’t end well. So it is with trepidation that I put forward suggestions for Chancellor Rushi Sunak, on how to

Institutional confidence is strengthening cryptocurrencies, but could this ultimately undermine their appeal?
February 15, 2021

In the years since Bitcoin first entered the public eye, it has gone from a relatively obscure and fringe cryptocurrency to an increasingly mainstream digital asset. Indeed, it appears that the crypto initially known for its fully anonymous features is in the process of becoming an accepted and legitimate payment method and asset. The price

Having access to faster data is extremely useful. But don’t ignore B2B and the knowledge economy
February 8, 2021

The coronavirus pandemic has been a challenge for economic forecasters. While we at Cebr have probably fared better than most other forecasters (our March 2020 forecasts revision predicted global output to decline by 4.0% for the year at a time when many of our rivals were still forecasting growth – the latest data suggest the

The Times – Thousands at high risk of going bust
February 3, 2021

An estimated 1.8 million businesses could be at risk of insolvency as a result of pandemic-related disruption, including 336,000 that face a high risk of going bust, research has found. The winter wave of Covid-19 has resulted in business sentiment taking a fresh battering in January, with only about one in three companies reporting positive trading conditions,

Could COVID-19 induced innovations have started a productivity turnaround in the UK?
February 1, 2021

In Q3 2020, a record 16% expansion in GDP helped push productivity in the UK – as measured by output per hour worked – to the highest it has ever been. Much of this can be attributed to sectoral factors, with traditionally low productivity sectors such as hospitality accounting for a smaller share of the economic

Forbes – Openreach Accelerates Fibre Broadband Roll-Out
January 19, 2021

Telecoms company BT’s Openreach division is accelerating the roll-out of its gigabit-capable full fibre broadband across the UK, with the aim of connecting 20 million households and firms to the network within the next 10 years. Gigabit-capable full fibre broadband provides the fastest and most reliable connection to the internet. As the pandemic and social

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