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Browse releases

England’s outdoor drinkers and diners to provide the hospitality sector with a £314 million boost in the first week of reopening
April 10, 2021

The day many of us have been counting down to has finally arrived. April 12 marks the next phase of lockdown easing, meaning that after more than three months of closed doors England’s pubs, restaurants, bars and cafes will be allowed to re-open, albeit only for outdoor service. There is a palpable sense of excitement

Brits to spend £1.4 billion on garden centres and DIY stores this Easter while other non-essential shops remain closed
April 5, 2021

The Easter weekend has traditionally been one of the highlights for retailers with shoppers being enticed to venture out and make the best of the long bank holiday weekend. However, with most non-essential stores still closed, this Easter will test the patience of retailers across the country while garden centres and DIY stores are set

The Flat White Economy five years on – now established as the UK’s leading economic sector, 28% bigger than manufacturing
March 29, 2021

Five years ago on 24 March 2016 the paperback edition of my book The Flat White Economy was published by Duckworth. The key point I made was that the tech enabled sector was at least as important to the UK economy as the tech production sector. My second point was that the critical factor driving

One year since lockdown: The £251 billion cost to the UK economy
March 22, 2021

A year ago this week, Cebr closed its office for an indefinite period, in light of the hastening spread of a new coronavirus. Countless workplaces up and down the country did the same. Many were prompted towards mass remote working, while businesses more reliant on face-to-face contact ceased their operations completely. It was clear that

China’s net zero plan means a huge transformation between 2025 and 2060
March 15, 2021

China dominates the world market for most types of electric vehicles. The Chinese stock of electric cars at 4.6 million is 42% of the world’s total. For electric buses the share is even higher at 98%, for vans it’s 65%. Underpinning this is the Chinese production of lithium ion batteries – where 77% of the world’s

The Times – Economy set for rebound as Covid-19 vaccine raises household and business confidence
March 8, 2021

Jump in confidence to drive spending splurge Household and business confidence has rebounded to levels not seen since the start of the pandemic thanks to the rapid deployment of Covid-19 vaccines. The improving sentiment will raise hopes that the economy is poised for a robust recovery when restrictions are largely phased out in the summer. Consumer confidence

The Scotsman – UK Budget: Rishi Sunak’s tax rises are just the start of payback even as ‘party to end all parties’ looms
March 4, 2021

With Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s increases set to take the overall tax burden to 35 per cent of GDP by 2025/26 – the highest level since the late 1960s under Labour Chancellor Roy Jenkins – it is clear he is planning to get public finances back on a sound footing. But, in his Budget statement yesterday,

The trick is knowing how to bring the party to an end before the furniture starts to get smashed….
March 3, 2021

The Chancellor stood up this lunchtime with two major tasks: to ensure that the UK economy recovers post Covid and to bring public finances back under control. Despite the record-contraction in GDP in 2020, it was never going to be too difficult to get the economy to bounce back this year as long as vaccination

Don’t expect higher corporation tax rates to raise much more revenue
March 1, 2021

After Nigel Lawson’s great tax reforming budget in 1984, which cut the headline rate of corporation tax from 52% to 35%, I visited the then IBM Head of Tax Worldwide in Armonk, New York in my role as the IBM UK Chief Economist. I asked him if he was aware of the change, which he was,

The Great Texas Blackout is a warning; we must be prepared for a Dunkelflaute in the UK
February 20, 2021

At the time of writing some four million Texans are reportedly without power in freezing conditions. Winter storm Uri and a loop in the jet-stream bringing the polar vortex south, have led to record-breaking low temperatures across parts of the southern US.  Rising electricity demand coupled with failure of power stations means that the grid operator,

Article by Douglas McWilliams in the Daily Mail – How Rishi Sunak can raise revenues without wrecking the Covid recovery
February 18, 2021

Rishi Sunak’s £400bn balancing act: With the Budget fast approaching, here’s how the Chancellor can raise revenues without wrecking the Covid recovery The last new tax proposed by an economist was the poll tax. That didn’t end well. So it is with trepidation that I put forward suggestions for Chancellor Rushi Sunak, on how to

Institutional confidence is strengthening cryptocurrencies, but could this ultimately undermine their appeal?
February 15, 2021

In the years since Bitcoin first entered the public eye, it has gone from a relatively obscure and fringe cryptocurrency to an increasingly mainstream digital asset. Indeed, it appears that the crypto initially known for its fully anonymous features is in the process of becoming an accepted and legitimate payment method and asset. The price

Having access to faster data is extremely useful. But don’t ignore B2B and the knowledge economy
February 8, 2021

The coronavirus pandemic has been a challenge for economic forecasters. While we at Cebr have probably fared better than most other forecasters (our March 2020 forecasts revision predicted global output to decline by 4.0% for the year at a time when many of our rivals were still forecasting growth – the latest data suggest the

The Times – Thousands at high risk of going bust
February 3, 2021

An estimated 1.8 million businesses could be at risk of insolvency as a result of pandemic-related disruption, including 336,000 that face a high risk of going bust, research has found. The winter wave of Covid-19 has resulted in business sentiment taking a fresh battering in January, with only about one in three companies reporting positive trading conditions,

Could COVID-19 induced innovations have started a productivity turnaround in the UK?
February 1, 2021

In Q3 2020, a record 16% expansion in GDP helped push productivity in the UK – as measured by output per hour worked – to the highest it has ever been. Much of this can be attributed to sectoral factors, with traditionally low productivity sectors such as hospitality accounting for a smaller share of the economic

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