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Browse releases

Equity markets performing strongly but UK stocks held back by a number of market-specific issues
April 8, 2024

In Cebr’s Top Ten for Twenty Four we argued ‘The outlook for bond and equity markets is the best for many years, though some of 2024’s gains have already been taken (in thin markets) during the last weeks of December 2023. Falling interest rates and steady growth are normally a great background for financial markets.

Easter week to mark a turning point in consumer prospects, with spending set to eclipse £11.4 billion, up 5.7% on last Easter, despite the weather
March 30, 2024

Easter weekend typically stands out as a highlight for retailers, as shoppers are enticed to venture out and make the most of the long bank holiday weekend. Despite challenging economic conditions amid the cost-of-living crisis, British consumers appear confident about opening their wallets once again as Easter week ushers in a resurgence in spending. Cebr

Remote working artificially boosts London’s economy by £8 billion, at the expense of the East and South East
March 24, 2024

Amongst the plentiful economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, arguably the most significant has been the acceleration in the adoption of remote working. In addition to changing the structure of the labour market, this has had implications for the regional distribution of economic activity. This has been of particular detriment to London, shifting output away from

The Chancellor’s approach to boosting growth in the Budget was short-sighted. The next government should provide the long-term policy certainty businesses need to invest
March 18, 2024

The headlines from the recent Spring Budget were rightly dominated by the 2p decrease in National Insurance Contributions, given it will make a notable difference in workers’ take-home pay, even if obscured by other tax changes. There were other commendable announcements, too, notably changes to child benefit charge thresholds and a focus on improving public

EMPOWERING COMMUNITIES: ECONOMIC & SOCIAL GAINS OF HOUSING INITIATIVES
March 5, 2024

Swift Economic Boost In recently published research by Shelter and the National Housing Federation, executed by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a compelling case is made for the economic and social benefits of constructing 90,000 social rented homes annually. This initiative, beyond addressing the dire need for affordable housing, promises a staggering £51.2bn addition

UK economy to receive £8.6 billion boost from this week’s leap year day, increasing growth by 0.3 percentage points
February 29, 2024

Cebr analysis published last week considered the effect of the leap year day on earnings. In this short follow-up note, we present our estimates of the GDP impact. Though higher frequency economic statistics are seasonally- and calendar-adjusted, meaning the impact of extra working days is largely smoothed out, there is no adjustment for leap days

The economic impact of building social housing
February 28, 2024

Cebr conducted an economic and social impact assessment for the National Housing Federation and Shelter, examining the effects of constructing 90,000 social homes. Our report provides a thorough, long-term analysis of the costs and benefits to the economy, government, social housing residents, and society in general. The scenario modelled in the report focuses on the

Non-salaried workers to earn an extra £530 million due to next week’s leap year day
February 26, 2024

Thanks to Pope Gregory XIII’s overhaul of the shoddy Julian calendar in 1582, 2024 is a leap year. Relative to 2023, England will see three extra working days this year: one for the leap year day of February 29th, one due to the lack of a coronation, meaning fewer public holidays, and one less weekend day. This

Assessments of the labour market remain subject to uncertainty, but this should not deter the Bank of England from cutting rates
February 19, 2024

In October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) unexpectedly pulled the plug on the publication of some of its flagship labour market statistics, covering metrics such as unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity. Citing issues with sample sizes and the broader methodology behind the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the statistics were deemed to be unreliable. The figures

House price growth could be dampened by Gove’s planning reforms, experts say
February 15, 2024

Office buildings struggling to meet higher energy efficiency standards could be used to increase housing supply, according to experts. House price growth could be dampened by Michael Gove’s relaxation of planning rules but the reforms are unlikely to solve Britain’s housing crisis, experts have said. Under legislation laid in Parliament on Tuesday, laws allowing commercial buildings to

UK house prices still falling, but the outlook for 2024 is changing course
February 12, 2024

The UK housing market has faced a period of significant headwinds, with elevated mortgage rates, a sluggish economy, and a cost-of-living crisis all contributing towards a gloomy picture. Indeed, the most recent official data released by the Land Registry are particularly notable, demonstrating that average UK house prices fell by 2.1% on an annual basis in

Cebr raises its forecasts for corporate insolvencies in 2024 from 28,000 to 33,000
February 5, 2024

In September last year, Cebr predicted that we would see 7,000 companies going insolvent each quarter in the UK in 2024 [1]. When the data came out for Q4 2023 about a week ago it was clear that we had reached that level already, with 6,788 insolvencies in England and Wales, 314 in Scotland and 81

Hunt must scrap the tourist tax if the UK wants to stay competitive
February 1, 2024

The tourist tax is causing the UK to fall behind European rivals Ahead of his Spring Budget, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is casting around for measures to promote that most elusive of things, economic growth. It’s a feeling I know well from my days at the Treasury as an adviser to George Osborne. Happily, there is

With an expected recession in the rear-view mirror, the UK’s prospects for 2024 have improved
January 29, 2024

The UK economy has battled sluggish growth for years. Though shocks such as the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis take a large share of the blame, questions remain regarding the country’s economic fundamentals. Still, signs are emerging that the economy has already hit the depths of the current economic cycle and is, therefore, now on the path

The economic case for gender equality in the workplace and the need for further government action
January 25, 2024

In this piece, Professor Vicky Pryce, Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), discusses the sources of gender inequality in the UK’s economy, as well as the policy measures needed to address them. Research and a proliferation of books, including mine, highlight that women, society and the economy suffer because of gender inequality. Gender equality economics

Are tax increases starting to suffer from the law of diminishing returns?
January 22, 2024

The September UK borrowing figures indicated to the OBR that borrowing was running £19.8 billion below forecast. Just two months later, the November data showed borrowing £6.3 billion above forecast. A £26 billion turnaround in two months is quite a change. At first sight the financial turnaround suggested a dramatic collapse in public finances. But

People who see a financial planner have better quality of life
January 18, 2024

People who see a financial planner have a better quality of life and more financial confidence than those who don’t, according to the CISI and Financial Planning Standards Board.  The research conducted by the professional body found that almost two in five of those who see a financial planner said their mental health and family

More generous childcare support would make the UK more attractive to international talent
January 12, 2024

Arguments in favour of government childcare support are often built on emotional pillars, pleading to one’s sense of righteousness – we should help parents with childcare because it is the fair thing to do, the nice thing to do. It is the fair and nice thing to do, but it is also the economically sensible

Bank of Family saves young parents £38bn per year in childcare costs
January 11, 2024

In the last year, almost half (42%) of parents and grandparents aged 55 and over have assisted younger family members with childcare. Those who have provided childcare spend the equivalent of a long workday (almost 9 hours) childminding per week. Parents and grandparents – the ‘Bank of Family’ – are offering childcare support to family

An expected recovery in disposable income might encourage a late election but is unlikely to change its result
January 8, 2024

We are predicting a recovery in disposable income which might encourage a late election but is unlikely to be sufficient to change the result. The Prime Minister has announced that it is his working assumption that the next UK General Election will be held in the second half of 2024. Given the predictions in Cebr’s

Top Ten for Twenty Four – A year of political change, economic clouds gradually lifting, debt problems lingering, England favourites for a soccer competition, and break dancing a new Olympic sport
January 1, 2024

Our main forecast a year ago was that the UK would suffer a recession. Although the latest data released just before Christmas suggests that a technical recession may well be taking place in Q3 and Q4 this year, the reality is that the economy has flatlined rather than fallen back. We would treat this prediction

The cost of Christmas is up nearly a quarter in three years
December 11, 2023

Last year’s Christmas season was the weakest for retailers since 1998, with elevated inflation and reduced consumer spending power leading to a significant cutback in festive expenditure. This continued a trend of problematic recent festive periods for retailers. Christmas 2020 was significantly impacted by pandemic-related restriction measures, which reduced retail sales. 2021 was on the

Scotland’s Entrepreneurial Spirit Drives Growth and Revenue
December 4, 2023

Scotland stands out as the most entrepreneurial of the UK’s devolved nations, with a high number of well-established entrepreneurs. According to research from YFM Equity Partners, these Scottish founders contribute £52bn in revenue, despite constituting only 7% of the nation’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The firm’s inaugural Entrepreneur Economy report stated that as the third fastest

Failing to plan for migration means many of its significant benefits are lost
December 4, 2023

At the time of Brexit, few thought it would be followed by a two- to three-fold increase in net migration INTO the UK. Yet new migration data have recently been released that seem to suggest that this is, in fact, the case. Compared to a pre-Brexit average of around 250,000 a year, net migration into

Autumn Statement: Cebr’s Immediate Review
November 22, 2023

“The Chancellor has delivered an Autumn Statement that rightly focuses on tackling the UK’s main economic problem, stagnant long-term growth. The only way to sustainably do so is to improve the productive capacity of the economy. Policies such as permanent full expensing of capital allowances and R&D tax credit reform represent a strong forward step

Vaping is big business in Britain
November 21, 2023

But a government consultation may signal a crackdown. Even after Britain’s ban on indoor smoking came into force in 2007, the smell of cigarette smoke was never far away. It wafted across pub gardens and lingered outside workplaces. Today you are almost as likely to inhale the scent of blue razz lemonade or the “refreshing, mellow

National Grid’s optimistic approach leaves our energy system vulnerable to black swan events
November 20, 2023

With the clocks going back and the nights drawing in, once again it is time to assess the likelihood of the lights going out this winter.  Each Autumn National Grid, the Electricity System Operator (ESO), publishes its annual Winter Outlook report – its own assessment of this issue. In the past few years, we have

Chinese tourists are returning to London, but spending far less
November 15, 2023

CHINESE tourists are returning to London after restrictions on travel were lifted, but they are spending dramatically less than before the pandemic. The New West End Company, which represents stores and hotels in the busy London district, has found that tourists are increasingly aware that the UK no longer offers tax-free shopping post-Brexit, and are diverting

Bank of England review into forecast failings must focus on the people, not just the models
November 13, 2023

“Central banks have come under fire for missing their inflation targets, but at least as much because their inflation forecasts have really missed outturns.” This is a quote from a recent speech by Catherine Mann, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member. It is a position that seems to be shared across the Bank, given the terms

First time buyer economy worth £74.1bn by 2025
November 6, 2023

The value of the first time buyer (FTB) economy, comprised of lending and spending, is set to reach a total of £74.1bn by 2025, according to latest research by Coventry for intermediaries in partnership with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). This research forms part of Coventry for intermediaries’ second edition of The First Time Buyer Economy

Covid lockdowns cost at least £118 billion in lost GDP, but what did it save?
November 6, 2023

Our conservative estimates are that lockdowns cost £118 billion in lost GDP, and possibly more than that in additional public spending. The current Covid Inquiry under Baroness Hallett is expected to cost £200 million[1]. While it is right that it covers medical outcomes, we must also account for the economic impacts and ask – was

The new normal – interest rates are likely to settle well above zero
October 30, 2023

Over the past few years, the world economy has faced a number of shocks that can be described as anything but ‘normal’. Global GDP fell by 2.8% in 2020, then bounced back from its Covid-induced recession, growing by 6.3% in 2021 (the highest since IMF records started in 1980) as vaccines became widely available. The

Revealed: The hidden cost of ignoring women’s health in the workplace
October 26, 2023

The latest economic modelling from AXA Health and Centre of Economic and Business Research shows that when businesses neglect women’s health in the workplace, the UK economy loses £20.2bn a year. The report also found that despite 68 per cent of women reporting that they have faced health issues at some point in their career, almost a third

Financial wellbeing and productivity in the workplace
October 25, 2023

Download the full report here This report represents an update to prior research conducted by Cebr and Aegon regarding financial wellbeing and its implications for workplace productivity. Cebr’s original 2018 report aimed to comprehensively assess financial wellbeing among the UK employee population and gauge its impact on workplace productivity. The 2021 update extended this inquiry

Cloud of uncertainty darkens over the Bank of England amidst doubts over ONS data
October 20, 2023

We expect the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold interest rates steady when they meet early next month, following confusing signals sent by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The ONS has recently made headlines with its decision to delay the release of critical labour market data. This move has raised concerns

Why beating the ‘digital drag’ could help your small business thrive
October 16, 2023

These businesses have faced immense challenges with sky high inflation, reduced consumer spending and record late payments making things increasingly hard. Despite this, the smallest firms – those employing up to nine people – have continued to deliver for our economy and provide over a quarter of total UK jobs.  But their contribution could be

Despite their differences the French and the UK economies have achieved remarkably similar growth
October 16, 2023

The British and the French like to think of themselves as belonging to two very different countries, both culturally and economically. Looking at the data, this seems to hold some true across some key variables. For example, the French public sector plays a substantially larger role in the domestic economy compared to the UK. This

A rise in bond yields could stop the MPC raising rates further – yet another example of the Law of Self Contradicting Expectations
October 5, 2023

In an eerie repetition of the bond squeeze a year ago, which was caused by a combination of Bank of England failures and a bad market reaction to Liz Truss’s mini-budget, the yield on the UK government 30-year bond rose 21 basis points in the week to Wednesday 4 October to reach 5.00%, its highest

Despite continued economic volatility, global financial inclusion improved according to the Global Financial Inclusion Index from Principal
October 5, 2023

DES MOINES, Iowa — Singapore is the world’s most financially inclusive market across 42 analyzed, alongside Hong Kong, Switzerland, the United States, and Sweden, according to the second edition of the Global Financial Inclusion Index (the Index) from Principal Financial Group®.  The research released today, conducted by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) and Principal®, examines

HS2 northern cancellations are a no brainer economically, if not politically
September 29, 2023

The UK Prime Minister is considering cancelling or delaying northern sections of HS2. This has been motivated by rising costs, with the scheme now potentially costing upwards of £100bn. These rising costs are not a surprise – it has long been clear that it is hard to justify HS2 on value for money grounds alone,

Wealthify Enlists TikTok Stars in Schools Campaign to Engage Young People with Money Skills
September 27, 2023

Digital investment platform, Wealthify, is today launching a groundbreaking campaign aimed at tackling low financial literacy levels in young people.  Partnering with financial and enterprise education charity, Young Enterprise, Future Skills provides free resources to help teachers equip 16 to 18-year-olds with essential money skills, just as they approach financial independence. In what the charity say

The delayed ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars shows that the UK Prime Minister is now dancing to the beat of the evidence
September 22, 2023

The UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has this week pushed back the date of the forthcoming ban on petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030 to 2035. He argues that this is a pragmatic move, that helps prevent UK households bearing large costs in the process of meeting the objective to deliver substantial carbon savings in

PAY RISES IN THE TECH SECTOR OUTSTRIPPING UK AVERAGES DESPITE VACANCY DECLINE
September 20, 2023

The average earnings in the IT sector across the UK have increased at a greater rate than the wider economy despite a slowdown in hiring, indicating a continued struggle with skills shortages. This is according to the latest Robert Half Jobs Confidence Index (JCI), an economic confidence tracker produced in partnership with the Centre for

The recent rise in the oil price shows that central bankers cannot rely on endlessly falling energy prices to bring inflation back to target
September 18, 2023

Central bank policymakers are once again finding themselves in a balancing act as they head into the September round of rate setting meetings, hoping to bring inflation down to the 2% target while minimising damage to the economy. Rising oil prices mean that their job has got considerably more difficult. For most of the year,

Germany needs to rethink its growth model – also for the benefit of UK plc
September 11, 2023

Following the recent data revision by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK is estimated to have performed significantly stronger than initially thought in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. The ONS now estimates that the UK economy in Q4 2021 was 0.6% larger than two years earlier before the start of the pandemic.

Britain likely to witness 7,000 business insolvencies per quarter in 2024, as high interest rates cause financial strain
September 4, 2023

There were over 6,700 business insolvencies in Britain in Q2 2023, more than double what was seen in a typical quarter during the pandemic, though during that period businesses were largely protected from insolvency through a range of measures. However, even compared with a more normal period these are up by 50% compared with the

The Chinese economy – we see growing pains but not a collapse
August 28, 2023

It’s interesting that no one official in China talks about when the Chinese economy will be bigger than that of the US. Their immediate objective is that China becomes a high income economy (defined by the World Bank’s metrics) by 2025. Having been remarkably successful at reducing (on their own figures they claim to have

Teens urged to claim Child Trust Fund proceeds: Typical account worth £2,100
August 24, 2023

New research has found as much as £1.7 billion lies unclaimed in the government-run savings accounts which were launched in 2005 and scrapped in 2011. Under the CTF scheme the government gave every child born between 2002 and 2011 a sum of money which was invested in a tax-free savings account. Parents, grandparents and others were then

The world inventory cycle could ease the pressure on the Bank of England
August 21, 2023

The inflation data from the UK over the past week has hinted that the Bank of England’s rate raising cycle may not yet be over. Wage inflation of 8% and core CPI inflation of 6.9% suggest that the target of 2% remains distant, despite falling producer prices. It is unlikely that the wage price cycle

Immigration is estimated to yield £3.3 billion annually for public finances as the UK sees near threefold increase in non-EU immigration since 2018
August 13, 2023

The latest immigration figures for 2022 showed another steep increase in the number of people coming to the UK. Based on the latest estimates, nearly 1.2 million people immigrated in 2022 while around 557,000 left the country, leading to a net migration figure of 606,000. This is up by 118,000 compared to 2021. Looking at the

Nearly 1 in 2 school leavers in England have reconsidered going to university, as cost of living soars
August 11, 2023

New survey from The Open University shows that 49% of 18–19-year-olds in England have reconsidered going to university in the last year, due to rising living costs 71% say they would consider distance learning if it meant saving money The Centre for Economic and Business Research (Cebr) estimates that studying with the OU could potentially

Removal of tax-free shopping costing £10.7bn in lost GDP and deterring two million tourists a year, report concludes
August 4, 2023

The analysis of VAT refund schemes for international visitors has become somewhat of a specialty at Cebr in recent years. With over a dozen reports across various jurisdictions, Cebr has been a leading voice in evaluating the costs and benefits associated with such schemes. Furthermore, we were asked to provide expert evidence in the court of

London Loves Business – Virgin Media O2 & Cebr data shows rural economy missing out on £65.1 billion boost
August 2, 2023

Improved rural connectivity could boost the UK economy by £65.1 billion, new economic modelling from the Cebr for Virgin Media O2 has found. The report, titled ‘The Great Rural Revival’, addresses four sectors central to the UK’s rural economy – tourism, agriculture, manufacturing, and small businesses – and finds connectivity improvements could boost rural employment

Global manufacturing sectors are in recession – expect this to worsen as the inventory cycle turns
July 31, 2023

We are expecting a major inventory cycle in worldwide manufacturing over the next two years, hitting already fragile manufacturing sectors in global economies. Even in normal times, the shape of the current economic cycle would lead to a knock-on inventory cycle, but high interest rates will amplify its shape in 2024 and 2025. This will

We forecast that China will be the world’s largest economy for only 21 years before the US overtakes again in 2057. And by 2081 India will have overtaken the US. How does this affect geopolitics?
July 24, 2023

Cebr’s last World Economic League Table (WELT) published in December 2022 suggested that China leapfrogging the US to become the world’s largest economy measured in dollar terms might be delayed to 2036 from the 2028 date previously forecast. The next version of WELT to be published this coming December will update this forecast but we

US inflation is falling back fast – will prices in the UK follow suit?
July 17, 2023

This week brought some welcome news from the US as inflation in the world’s largest economy slowed to 3% in June, down from 4% a month earlier. This is the lowest inflation reading since March 2021, and though the fall back is at least partly driven by base effects, it is hard not to see this

How a rapid post vaccine recovery, labour market tightness and shifting consumer behaviours created a perfect inflationary storm
July 7, 2023

On Wednesday, 5th July, I had the privilege of joining Professor Sir Charles Bean, (former Monetary Policy Committee and OBR Budget Responsibility Committee member), Stephen King (Senior Economic Adviser to HSBC) and Dr Sushil Wadhwani CBE (former MPC member) in giving evidence to the Treasury Select Committee. The session examined the Bank of England’s inflation

The US economy continues to confound expectations of a looming recession – so why are consumers so downbeat?
July 3, 2023

Over the past two years, the US has faced a series of challenges that have tested its resilience. Alongside the global battle against the pandemic, the nation has grappled with a surge in inflation, adding to its woes. The inflationary surge has prompted the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) to raise its base interest rates

City A.M. – Housing market a ‘ticking time bomb’ as prices slow amid mortgage mayhem
June 26, 2023

Cebr’s estimates for the costs to homeowners of renegotiating their mortgage is featured in the following City A.M. article. The housing market has slowed amid the mortgage crisis, with experts warning it is like a “ticking time bomb” before it crashes. This morning’s House Price Index from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show average UK

The Guardian – Warm weather pushes up retail sales in Great Britain as people turn to outdoor goods
June 26, 2023

Cebr’s comments on the impact of interest rate rises were featured in following Guardian article. Warmer weather and online bargains drove a surprise increase in retail sales in May after City forecasts predicted the cost of living crisis would persuade consumers to be more restrained. Retail sales in Great Britain rose 0.3% last month after

Bloomberg UK – BOE Must Not Enter Panic Mode on Inflation: Cebr CEO
June 26, 2023

Nina Skero, CEO at Centre for Economic and Business Research, doesn’t see “the need for this complete sense of panic” over the latest UK inflation data and explains why the Bank of England should not deliver a 50-basis point hike on Thursday. She speaks with Francine Lacqua on “Bloomberg Surveillance Early Edition.” Watch the interview

Reaction – Inflation: once the genie is out of the bottle, it’s really hard to stuff it back in.
June 26, 2023

The following article was written by Cebr’s Deputy Chairman, Douglas McWilliams. It all looked so easy. When Rishi Sunak pledged to halve inflation this year most commentators thought that this was already locked in. The base for comparison was inflated and many prices were near their cyclical peaks – indeed energy prices had already fallen sharply and this was

Bloomberg UK – Recruiter Warns Pay Grievances Could Drive UK Wage-Price Spiral
June 26, 2023

Cebr’s findings for Robert Half’s Jobs Confidence Index were quoted in the following Bloomberg UK article. A worrying combination of high job confidence and low satisfaction with pay is likely to keep driving tightness in the UK labor market and fueling pay growth, according to recruitment firm Robert Half.  Sixty-two percent of workers felt confident

The Telegraph – Why Britain’s mortgage crisis risks triggering the biggest house price crash on record
June 26, 2023

Featured in this article: comments from Cebr Director and Head of Forecasting and Thought Leadership Kay Neufeld. Nikki Kopelman and her husband James Bore bought their £420,000 home in 2019, securing a five-year fixed mortgage at a bargain rate of 2.5pc.  But the era of cheap money is now coming to a brutal end for Britain’s

An interest rate of 6% would mean nearly 10,000 extra home repossessions in the next three years
June 23, 2023

Please note: the figures in the report below were published before the Government announced additional measures to protected mortgage holders on 23 June. These measures will likely reduce the number of mortgage repossessions over the coming 12 months. UK mortgage holders just can’t catch a break at the moment. Gilt yields, which had been trending

The end of the free lunches…
June 19, 2023

I was recently asked to give a briefing on the UK property market for a range of foreign investors, mainly from South East Asia. This is an expanded version of some of my comments. Investing in the UK Since the Brexit vote many overseas investors have downgraded the UK. Simon French of Panmure Gordon estimates

City AM – London homeowners face ‘grim’ mortgage cost hike of £7,300 if Bank raises rates again
June 13, 2023

London homeowners looking to renegotiate their mortgage this year face a whopping £7,300 rise in annual costs as experts warn of the “grim reality” of rising interest rates.  The Bank of England is predicted to hike interest rates for the 13th consecutive time this year to 5.5 per cent in efforts to cool soaring inflation, with the decision set

Bloomberg – UK Loses Nearly Four Million Days to Worst Strikes Since 1990
June 13, 2023

Britain’s economy has lost nearly 4 million working days to strikes since the start of last year, with little end in sight to the worst industrial unrest in decades. Another 257,000 days were lost in April, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday, a month in which junior doctors, nurses and some civil servants protested against below-inflation

Daily Express – UK homeowners face £9billion mortgage rate shock with one area hit hardest this year
June 13, 2023

Homeowners will have to spend an extra £9billion in interest payments over 2023-24 as they re-finance, with rates doubling, research by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) shows. Two and a half million homeowners will come to the end of fixed rate deals across 2023 and 2024 with another one million on variable rate deals.

The Telegraph – London homeowners face £7,300 mortgage rate shock
June 13, 2023

London homeowners will see their annual bill jump by up to £7,300 when they remortgage this year as 3.5 million borrowers face a rate shock. Nationally, homeowners will have to spend nearly an extra £9bn in interest over 2023 and 2024 as they are forced to refinance at rates that are double what they are used

Daily Mail – Unions line up another year of strike mayhem
June 13, 2023

Sports fans face rail chaos today – with another year of strikes in prospect. Train drivers represented by Aslef will bring network services to a standstill for the second time this week in a bitter dispute over pay. The union’s 11th walkout since last June will hit fans trying to make it to the Epsom

Scottish Daily Express – Minimum pricing has had no impact on Scotland’s worst problem drinkers
June 12, 2023

A new study has revealed the SNP’s flagship minimum alcohol pricing policy has done little to curb harm to Scotland’s most hardened drinkers. The controversial move saw cheap alcohol effectively banned in Scotland when it was finally introduced five years ago following a long legal battle. Ministers promised it would reduce deaths, hospital admissions and jobless rates

City AM – Our digital economy won’t pay off unless everyone in the UK can benefit from it
June 12, 2023

The UK’s economic future is intrinsically linked to the continued and growing success of technology. It is the primary driver of progress across our cities and regions, shaping the way we produce, connect and innovate, giving everyone access to more and better goods and services, upon which our economy fundamentally depends. The world is experiencing

Increase in mortgage rates expected to cost UK households £9 billion over 2023 and 2024, with London and the South East experiencing the sharpest rises
June 12, 2023

The volatility in the UK mortgage market has yet again intensified as major banks swiftly withdraw their mortgage offerings, creating more uncertainty for potential homebuyers and homeowners alike. April’s higher-than-expected inflation reading has unsettled the recent steady falls in fixed mortgage rates, highlighting affordability as the primary concern for the housing market. With the Bank

Daily Express – Side hustles can boost income ‘by £10,000 a year’
June 9, 2023

Side hustlers in the UK are earning almost £10,000 a year through their additional ventures, a new report unveiled today. The new figures, that form part of a report from Utility Warehouse (UW) and Cebr, show there are over 20 million multi-income individuals (‘Miis’) in the UK representing more than one in three of the adult population.

The Telegraph – Mortgage approvals to slump to lowest level since financial crisis
June 5, 2023

Mortgage approvals are on track to slump to their lowest level since the financial crisis as high interest rates continue to hammer borrowers, figures show. Based on the current trajectory, the number of home loans agreed will fall this year to the lowest level recorded since 2008, according to Capital Economics. It comes as Bank

Greedflation will soon be a thing of the past as consumers’ patience wears thin
June 5, 2023

Inflation now seems firmly on the retreat across most developed economies. While concerns remain regarding the speed with which inflation is expected to fall back to target and the UK in particular seems to grapple with stubbornly high core inflation, the trend is encouraging. Still, if you were to ask two economists for the reasons

The Telegraph – Borrowing costs surge back to Truss-era highs after inflation shock
May 30, 2023

UK borrowing costs surged to levels last reached under Liz Truss’s ill-fated premiership after traders were spooked by unexpectedly strong inflation. The consumer prices index (CPI) dropped to 8.7pc last month from 10.1pc in March, but the Bank of England had expected a bigger fall to 8.4pc. Meanwhile, core inflation increased to 6.8pc in April, its

With global manufacturing in crisis, economies are dangerously reliant on consumer spending to avoid a recession in 2023
May 29, 2023

Compared to the gloomy forecasts at the nadir of the energy crisis last winter, recent months have seen widespread upward revisions to growth forecasts, particularly for the UK, which now looks set to avoid recession in the first half of 2023. The Eurozone, too, has fared less badly than predicted albeit growth remains anaemic and

Reaction – UK inflation falls below 10% for first time since last August
May 25, 2023

UK inflation on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure slowed to 8.7% in April, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning in line with Cebr’s forecast for the month. The rate of price growth on the CPI measure has now fallen below 10% for the first time since August 2022. Core inflation,

Understanding the UK productivity collapse – the bulk of the shortfall comes from online shopping and the government sector
May 22, 2023

New government data released in the past week has shown that the UK’s productivity has fallen over the last year. Output per person hour in Q1 2023 was down 0.6% on the same quarter a year ago and output per worker was down 0.9%.[1] Without productivity growth, the economy cannot prosper – a continuation of

Forbes Advisor – Household Finances: Soaring Living Costs See Millions Struggling With Bills
May 18, 2023

As the cost of living crisis drags on, almost a third of UK adults have dipped into their savings to make ends meet, collectively withdrawing more than £53 billion, writes Bethany Garner. In the 12 months to April 2023, 29% of UK adults say they used savings to keep up with living costs, according to a study commissioned

Reaction – US inflation eases as Fed signals end to monetary tightening cycle
May 18, 2023

The annual rate of inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), stood at 4.9% in April. This is according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday. Inflation on the CPI-U measure has now slowed for ten consecutive months since last June’s peak of 9.1%, with

Financial Times – MyBnk calls for 30 hours a year of financial education in UK schools
May 18, 2023

Young people require a working week of tuition each year to be financially literate by the time they leave school, according to a new report. MyBnk, the education charity which led the Money & Pensions Service’s financial workshops for 16 and 17-year-olds, said that 30 hours of financial education each year for 11 to 18-year-olds

Bloomberg – UK Loses Another Half a Million Days to Strikes in One Month
May 18, 2023

Britain’s economy lost another half a million working days to strikes in March amid the most severe round of industrial action in nearly four decades. The UK has now lost more than 3.5 million days to walkouts since the Office for National Statistics began collecting the data last June following a pause during the Covid

The Independent – Financially desperate Britons turning to gambling as a ‘quick fix’ amid historic wealth lows
May 18, 2023

Financially desperate Britons are increasingly turning to gambling as a “quick fix” as wealth levels fall to historic lows, a study suggests. The annual LifeSearch Health, Wealth and Happiness Index compiled by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) fell 11 per cent over the last year to lows not seen since the height of the pandemic. The wealth index

Industrial action cost the UK economy £243m in Q1 due to lost working days, but indirect costs will drive bigger overall impacts
May 12, 2023

The ongoing wave of industrial action that has been sweeping the UK has eased since the end of last year, but with little progress being made in negotiations between unions and government it looks set to drag on. In the nine months to February, more than 3 million working days were lost to strikes, and

The Conversation – Does British tourism really need the royal family?
May 10, 2023

Love them or loathe them, the royal family are up there with red telephone boxes and scones when it comes to images of Britishness. Souvenir shops are full of their faces, newspapers across the world discuss them, and television dramas based on their lives have never been more popular. Whenever people are critical of the royal family,

The Telegraph – Renters offered deposit-free mortgages, if they’re quick
May 10, 2023

Deposit-free mortgages have returned for the first time since the financial crisis, as lenders help renters onto the property ladder. Skipton Building Society has launched a 100pc mortgage exclusively for renters aged over 21, who will not need a cash deposit to buy their first home. Instead, potential buyers must pass a credit and affordability check, as

BBC – Bunting, biscuits, beer – Brits spend on Coronation
May 9, 2023

The British public is refusing to let typical bank holiday weather spoil its Coronation plans and is gearing up for street parties and family celebrations. Around £200m will be spent on food and drink this weekend, according to the Centre for Retail Research (CRR). Supermarket chain Lidl said it had sold enough bunting to line

A credit crunch is squeezing the global economy
May 8, 2023

Recent economic data have painted a more positive picture of business activity for most developed economies. For example, service sector PMI data for April point towards expansion at the fastest rate in a year raising hopes that a more protracted economic slowdown can be avoided. Odds of a recession or even a single quarter of

Daily Express – New reports reveal how Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ scheme will ‘clobber’ London and south’s economy
May 3, 2023

Two devastating reports have revealed that Sadiq Khan’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) expansion, taxing thousands of drivers each day, will cost London hundreds of million of pounds a year and hit 1.2 million cars in the commuter belt. The London Mayor had planned for the rollout to take place this Autumn but they are subject to

The Times – Ditch ‘unrealistic’ pledge to ban petrol cars by 2030, ministers told
May 3, 2023

Ministers have been urged by MPs, economists and motoring groups to rethink plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. Criticism is growing over the most significant government intervention in the car market to date, amid claims that regulation is not needed to promote electric vehicles (EVs). The sale of

CNN – Why everyone in business loves India right now
May 3, 2023

When Tim Cook arrived in India earlier this month to open Apple’s first physical store in the country, he was welcomed like a hero. The CEO was greeted with cheers and applause, presented with a vintage Macintosh and held court with the country’s officials, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Cook’s visit, the latest by a top global executive, exemplifies the

UK economy raises a glass to £337 million Coronation boost from tourism and pub activity
May 1, 2023

As May approaches, the UK eagerly anticipates not only three bank holidays but also the once-in-a-lifetime Coronation ceremony for King Charles III. With an extended weekend and pubs allowed to stay open for longer, it should be a joyous occasion. How will these celebrations affect the UK economy? The Coronation weekend promises to bring a

The Telegraph – Teachers’ strikes force parents to plan for six-day weekend
April 28, 2023

Parents forced to take time off work for childcare during teachers’ strikes are planning for a possible six-day weekend. The majority of state schools in England were closed to some or all pupils on Thursday and are expected to close for further strikes after the Bank Holiday on Tuesday, forcing tens of thousands of parents to take time off

The Times – ‘Slash taxes or tourists will shun the hotspots’
April 28, 2023

The chancellor is facing renewed pressure from the retail industry to reintroduce tax-free shopping for tourists. The scheme allowed visitors from non-EU countries to recover the VAT on purchases bought within the trip but was withdrawn by the Treasury on December 31, 2020, during the pandemic. Last autumn, when Jeremy Hunt said he would keep

Daily Mail – Britain is missing out on millions from international visitors due to tourist tax, new figures reveal
April 28, 2023

Figures today lay bare how British stores are missing out on millions of pounds from international visitors after the removal of tax-free shopping for overseas tourists. As the campaign to scrap the hated tourist tax widens, data shows how holidaymakers are spending far more on the Continent than Britain. European shops have enjoyed their best month for

Reaction – Call for an inquiry into Tourist Tax Fiasco
April 28, 2023

The VAT Retail Export Scheme was withdrawn after December 2020 despite protests from retailers and from Global Blue, the company that specialises in obtaining VAT rebates for tourists. Post Brexit the government would eventually have had to extend the scheme to tourists from the EU as well as from outside the area. Paradoxically, because of the Northern Ireland Protocol,

The Telegraph – Europe ‘eats Britain’s lunch’ as tourist tax raid costs UK £3bn
April 26, 2023

The UK will miss out on more than £3bn of tourist spending this year as “Europe eats Britain’s lunch” after a tax raid on travellers by Rishi Sunak, new data suggests. Figures show that spending by visitors from the US and Gulf states has surged in France and Italy while barely reaching pre-pandemic levels in the UK after the

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