The latest edition of the World Economic League Table, WELT 2026, is produced by international economic forecasters, the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). It is Cebr’s 17th annual world economic outlook report. The WELT tracks the size of different economies across the globe, and projects changes over the next 15 years up to 2040.
Nina Skero, Chief Executive, said: ‘As global growth moderates, wide-ranging differences in economic performance are becoming more pronounced, pointing to a gradual rebalancing of economic power. Near and medium-term challenges of over-indebtedness, above-target inflation, inability to shrink state spending, and ageing populations remain evident across many economies, with US-imposed tariffs and geopolitical tensions fanning the flames. Europe has been at the forefront of many of these struggles and has seen dwindling growth rates as a result. The US has been propelled by the AI boom, but faces its own challenges, including an unsustainable debt path which may trigger a painful financial market correction. Yet other countries, including India and smaller Asian economies, continue to expand due to sustained investment, reform progress, and favourable demographic dynamics. Together, these trends underscore a world economy in which resilience varies significantly across regions and where long-term shifts in economic influence are gaining momentum, setting the stage for a more dispersed and dynamic global order.’
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Global GDP growth is expected to amount to 2.6% in real terms in 2025, easing from the 2.8% recorded in 2024. Elevated uncertainty stemming from shifts in the global trade order due to US tariff increases have weighed on activity. In contrast to other forecasters, we expect global GDP growth to ease marginally to 2.5% in 2026, as the spillover effects of higher US tariffs continue to weigh on global trade and investment. This is reinforced by our below-consensus outlook for the US: tech-driven capital spending is expected to remain supportive, but a weakening consumer environment and the emergence of a dual-speed economy are expected to constrain the overall pace of expansion.
World GDP, in nominal terms, is estimated to amount to $117 trillion for 2025 as a whole and will almost double to $227 trillion by 2040.
China shows measured resilience, supported by firmer exports and targeted policy easing, though its expansion remains constrained by weak domestic demand and structural pressures. Fiscal policy is expected to turn more accommodative in 2026 to support households, though its push for industrial and technological self-sufficiency will likely continue to weigh on prices. Although our near-term forecasts sit above external consensus, we do not expect China to reclaim its former role as the principal engine of global growth, and it therefore retains a more moderate medium-term trajectory in the league table.
Nevertheless, despite these headwinds, our long-range projections indicate that China is now expected to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy by 2045, earlier than envisaged last year, driven primarily by downgrades to the US’ long-term outlook, rather than a material structural improvement in China’s own performance.
India remains firmly on track to solidify its position as a global economic powerhouse. In 2026, it is projected to supplant Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy. In 2028, it is expected to cross the $5 trillion milestone and by 2029, overtake Germany, securing its place as the world’s third-largest economy. We continue to project that India will reach $10 trillion dollars by 2036 and become the world’s largest economy by the end of the century.
Across much of the developed world, fiscal policy is coming under heightened scrutiny, with recent sharp sell-offs in sovereign bond markets highlighting investor sensitivity to rising debt burdens and increasingly constrained budget positions. As monetary policy gradually normalises, fiscal choices are set to play a more dominant role in shaping medium-term outcomes. The UK is no exception: while it is on track to overtake Japan and become the world’s fifth-largest economy by 2040 in nominal terms, limited progress in lifting underlying growth means it is projected to slip in the GDP-per-capita rankings, from 19th in 2025 to 21st by 2040.
The report includes:
- An economic outlook report on every country in the world
- A chapter outlining global economic trends impacting the outlook for 2026
- GDP forecasts over the next 15 years for every country in the world
- GDP per capita forecasts over the next 15 years for every country in the world