The housing market has had to cope with a lot over the past couple of years, from its pandemic closure in March 2020 to the reversal of the stamp duty cut last September and five interest rate rises in a row since December.
Now we have a cost-of-living squeeze and government in turmoil, with a sitting prime minister with an 80-seat majority and his potential successors damaging themselves in a leadership contest that some have likened to a circular firing squad.
So how’s the market coping with this latest challenge?
You will know that the general view of housing market commentators, including this one, is that the market will slow in the second half of the year.
Well, we are now in the second half, if only just, and you would be hard pressed to find evidence of that slowdown yet.
I think when people talk about the second half, they have in mind the autumn, which is more accurately closer to the final quarter of the year rather than the second half, but even so,
Recent evidence suggests anything but a slowdown.
Where does all this leave the housing forecasters?
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) in a new Housing Prospects report, has revised up its prediction for price growth this year from 5.8% to 6.9% in the context of the market’s resilience.
But it is sticking to its guns in prediction a 3.7% fall in prices next year, up from a previous forecast of a 3.4% reduction.
“UK unemployment is expected to tick up over the coming quarters, rising from its current level of 3.8% to a peak of 4.5% in Q2 2023,” it says.
“Whilst relatively moderate, this forecasted uptick in unemployment is likely to reduce average household earnings, with negative knock-on implications for housing market demand and prices.”
On this view, the big slowdown has been delayed rather than cancelled.
It may be right.
But, given the market’s resilience, you would not necessarily want to bet against it continuing to hold up better than the forecasters expect.