YouGov-Cebr Consumer Confidence Release

September 1, 2017

Consumer confidence improves slightly but household finances fall for fifth month in a row

 

  • Consumer confidence at highest level since the general election

 

  • Strong improvements in expectations for house values and job security in year ahead

 

  • However, backward-looking household finances decrease for fifth successive month – something that has not happened since YouGov started tracking it

 

UK consumer confidence rose slightly during August, the latest data from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research shows.

 

The latest analysis finds that the YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index stands at 107.6 this month – up from 107.2 in July. Any score over 100 means more consumers are confident than unconfident and the August score is the highest the Index has been since the General election.

 

YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents are asked about household finances, property prices, job security and business activity, both over the past 30 days and looking ahead to the next 12 months.

 

Five measures improved in August, while three declined. The areas seeing the strongest increase over the past month are anticipated job security over the next 12 months and house values in the coming year. It should be noted, though, that both measures are still below the level they were at before the general election.

 

The data also shows that household finances over the past 30 days have continued to decline – falling for the fifth month in a row, something that has never previously happened in the eight years YouGov has tracked it. Meanwhile, both backward and forward-looking business activity measures have declined to their lowest levels in three-and-a-half and four-and-a-half years respectively.

 

Stephen Harmston, Head of YouGov Reports: “Although this month’s consumer confidence figures bring good news, they have to be placed in context – they have not yet returned to where they were ahead of the election. This is demonstrated vividly when it comes to homeowners’ expectations over the coming year. While there has been a notable improvement on this measure, it is still someway short of where it was in May and even further away from where it was ahead of last year’s EU referendum.”

 

Nina Skero, Head of Macroeconomics at the Centre for Economics and Business Research: “At the moment the UK economy is treading water rather than making waves – the question being whether this is a relatively good or bad thing. Our latest consumer confidence figures are positive in certain respects, with the house price measures gaining ground and job security improving. However, people’s household financial situations over the past 30 days have declined for the fifth successive month – something that has never happened since we started tracking it in 2009.”

 

– ENDS –

 

Notes to editors:

Please source all information to YouGov/Cebr.

 

Media enquiries:

Andrew Farmer, PR Director, YouGov

T: 020 7012 6157

E: andrew.farmer@yougov.com

 

Douglas McWilliams, Deputy Chairman, Cebr

T: 07710 083 652

E: dmcwilliams@cebr.com

 

About the YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index:

  • The YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index collects data on a daily basis throughout the month, conducting up to 7,000 interviews per month and more than 77,000 per year online with people aged 18+.
  • The sample is nationally representative and the YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index has a margin of error of +/-1.5%. The data is not seasonally adjusted.
  • Current month’s data in the press release is provisional and based on 21 days’ worth of data. End of month scores may differ from the provisional figure.
  • For further information about the YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence report please visit: http://research.yougov.co.uk/services/household-economic-activity-tracker/

 

 

The YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Index is based on eight measures:

 
 

Job security over the past month

 

 

Based on the question: “Compared to one month ago, how secure do you think your job is?”

 

 

Job security over the next year

 

Based on the question: “How likely do you think it is that you will be laid off or let go from your job in the next 12 months?”

 

Business activity at your place of work over the past month

 

 

Based on the question: “Compared to one month ago, how has the level of business activity at your place of work changed?”

 

 

Business activity at your place of work over the next year

 

 

Based on the question: “How do you think the level of business activity at your place of work will have changed 12 months from now?”

 

 

House value over the past month

 

Based on the question: “Compared to one month ago, how do you think the value of the property/dwelling in which you live has changed?”

 

 

House value over the next year

 

Based on the question: “Expected change in value of current dwelling, 12 months from now (among homeowners ONLY)”

 

 

Household finances over the past month

 

Based on the question: “Compared to one month ago, how has your household’s financial situation changed?”

 

 

Household finances over the next year

 

Based on the question: “How do you think your household’s financial situation will have changed 12 months from now?”

 

 

About YouGov:

YouGov is an international, full-service market research agency and is the pioneer of market research through online methods. Our suite of syndicated, proprietary data products includes: BrandIndex, the daily brand perception tracker; Profiles, our new tool for media planning, market segmentation and forecasting; and Reports which provide comprehensive market intelligence on a range of sectors. The market-leading YouGov Omnibus provides a fast and cost- effective service for obtaining answers to research questions from both national and selected samples. Our custom research business conducts a wide range of quantitative and qualitative research, tailored to our specialist teams to meet our clients’ specific requirements.

 

YouGov has a panel of 3 million people worldwide, including over 600,000 people in the UK representing all ages, socio-economic groups and other demographic types.

 

As the most quoted market research agency in the UK, YouGov has a well-documented and published track record illustrating the accuracy of its survey methods.

 

For further information visit yougov.co.uk

 

About the Centre for Economics and Business Research:

Cebr – the Centre for Economics and Business Research – is a leading economics consultancy, founded in 1993 by Douglas McWilliams. Cebr has wide ranging experience and expertise on subjects from micro-economic impact studies to macro-economic forecasting across the UK, the Eurozone and global economy.

 

For more information and the latest reports from Cebr, please visit www.cebr.com