Key findings

 

The key findings of the extension to our study on plain packaging for tobacco to the individual nations and regions of the UK are presented in this addendum report, which can be obtained by clicking on the link below.

 

We find that lower prices for legal tobacco, increased illicit trade and a shift by customers from convenience retailers to larger retailers as a result of increased transaction times and longer queues are expected to have the most significant absolute impacts on small independent retailers (SIRs) in urban and suburban areas of the South East of England, London and the North West regions. But, in relative terms, the same is true of losses in the other nations and regions.

 

Significant losses are also expected to the East Midlands and Northern Ireland economies as a result of the negative impact of plain packaging on UK tobacco manufacturing, which is concentrated in this region and nation.

 

For the UK nations and English regions, our key findings include the following:

 

• Job losses in SIRs are expected to be greatest in the South East of England, London and the North West of England, with 4,466, 3,683 and 3,305 fewer jobs respectively due to the lost tobacco and non-tobacco sales that can be expected to result from plain packaging. These job losses are more likely to be concentrated in urban and suburban areas because the options to switch to larger stores in anticipation of longer tobacco transaction times and queues in SIRs will be more readily available.

 

• The East Midlands economy is expected to be the worst affected by plain packaging, with a reduction in regional GVA from tobacco manufacturing of between £175 million and £303 million.

 

• Northern Ireland would, however, experience the greatest percentage reduction in the size of its economy, falling by between 0.4 and 0.7 per cent as a result of the impact of plain packaging.

 

SIR’s will bear the brunt of plain packaging with job losses across all regions of the UK. With so many local communities dependent on SIRs, such effects would have negative implications in terms of the wider social impact of SIRs. Plain packaging would also increase the likelihood of business failures at a time and in circumstances in which retail space occupancy rates on the High Street are already noticeably depressed. Plain packaging would also hit manufacturing at a time when the sector is just starting to recover from the global economic downturn.