Impact of potential Brexit scenarios on Greater London, Greater Manchester and Greater Bristol
This report looks at the impact on the economy of different potential Brexit outcomes. The study has an
obvious focus on London, as the UK’s largest regional economy, but also the wider UK and in particular
large ‘metro’ conurbations like Manchester and Bristol.
The key conclusions are:
· The economy of the UK capital, London, is at immediate risk from Brexit if not handled carefully.
· The biggest Brexit related risks are loss of financial business from the City of London’s trading
activity with the remaining EU member states and loss of service sector business from reduced migration.
On the goods side the danger is that even if an agreement results in no tariffs being imposed on UK
exports there will still be extra costs in trading with the EU if the UK ends up without an arrangement
that replicates most of the benefits of the current customs union and the single market which will make
trade more costly with the EU. These costs include customs checks, border controls, direct regulatory
requirements when trading, increased government and company bureaucracy and legal differences that
will impact on firms trading across- they are non-tariff barriers on trade in goods, not only in services,
which means an end to ‘frictionless’ trade- adding extra costs.
Contact;
Douglas McWilliams
DMcWilliams@cebr.com