More than one in 20 pubs are at risk of closure next year with the loss of 12,000 jobs unless the Government stops taking so much money out of the till, a report has warned.

Landlords have said a combination of high business rates, alcohol duty and Labour’s jobs tax are making it impossible for increasing numbers of pubs to make a profit.

An estimated 378 pubs are expected to close in the current calendar year, but next year that figure could rise sixfold to 2,200 of the remaining 38,000 pubs in England and Wales, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

Already more than one pub a day is closing its doors for good, often in rural areas where they are a vital hub for the community.

The pub trade is struggling as a result of Rachel Reeves’s increase to employers’ National Insurance contributions, an increased minimum wage and high rates of duty.

The industry now faces the looming threat of revaluations of pubs for business rates and the loss of a 40 per cent discount on rates that applies to the hospitality industry – introduced during Covid – which had already been cut from 75 per cent at the start of this financial year. The changes will be announced in the Budget in November.

The British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) is calling on the Chancellor to keep the same level of discount for pubs, which would enable them to stay profitable, contribute towards economic growth and generate tax revenue for the Treasury.

The BBPA said Ms Reeves’s overhaul of business rates was a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to rebalance a system that they said punished pubs by making them hand over far more of their turnover to the Treasury than other businesses.

‘The last community space’

Emma McClarkin, the chief executive of the BBPA, told The Telegraph: “There are publicans out there who are literally waiting to hear what the new rateable value of their pub is and what the Chancellor will do in her Budget before they know whether they can stay open beyond this year.

“A lot of them don’t even pay themselves a wage because the margins are so tight. This is a reset moment and if the Chancellor gets this right, then businesses can plan for the core costs they know they will have to cover.

“Pubs are often the last community space that exist in a village and it might be the only place people meet their neighbours, and that is what we stand to lose. We are a network that exists hopefully in every town and village, and we can fire those local economies if we can be profitable and grow.”

The pub trade has long argued that it is overtaxed: pubs and bars account for 0.4 per cent of UK turnover but pay 2.1 per cent of all business rates.

If pubs paid the same business rates to turnover ratio as other businesses, they would be paying a combined £130m instead of the £637m they actually pay. Pubs also hand over around a third of the price of a pint of beer to the Treasury in duty and VAT.

As well as scrapping the business rates relief introduced during Covid, Ms Reeves is changing the way business rates are calculated.

The BBPA said Ms Reeves must give pubs a 20p in the pound discount on the so-called multiplier being used to calculate business rates – the maximum allowed under the new system – which is roughly similar in cash terms to the current discount they receive.

Without it, the CEBR said in its report commissioned by the BBPA, 2,200 pubs would be at risk of closure because they would no longer be in profit.

A spokesman for the Government said: “Pubs are vital to local communities, that’s why we’re cutting the cost of licencing, lowering their business rates and helping more pubs offer pavement drinks and al fresco dining, on top of cutting alcohol duty on draught pints and capping corporation tax.”