Forecasting Eye
One of Cebr’s recent themes has been to sidestep the Brexit debate to focus attention on those economic factors within the country’s control. Whatever the final result on Brexit, we still need to pay our way in the world which means being more competitive.
Transport infrastructure is important to this. In a paper submitted to the DfT’s consultation on appraisal and modelling Cebr Head of Transport Ian Birch and former Cebr Managing Economist Dominic Walley of Connected Economics argued for a new way of looking at transport. This note is based on their paper. The National Infrastructure Commission, now led by Sir John Armitt, is a promising start. But too much of Whitehall’s transport thinking is mired in an old economy mindset that needs to look forward.
Britain is a small island and as such is likely to need a degree of planning. In the past, issues of planning and the roles of the public and private sector were considered matters of ideology. Now, these issues are looked at more pragmatically. We are at a point where a confluence of technologies means that transport’s role in the UK’s economic system is enhanced. Emerging economies like China and India realise this and so have futuristic plans. Too many UK projects are being considered and developed in isolation from each other. We need more joined-up thinking.
Our transport vision takes account of the emergence of transport hubs as high quality development zones; of the likely greening of road transport (meaning increased importance for using congestion charging rather than congestion as the control factor); of the need to make smart cities work; of the need to integrate planning, transport, and housing; of the need to link the country both north-south and east-west and industrial areas with the ports and link all areas better with the outside world. Specifically we have 7 ideas on our shortlist:
1) As cars become greener and eventually largely autonomous the Uberisation of motoring will proceed apace. Cebr’s plans for smart vehicles and transport systems that permit road pricing as set out in https://www.mida.rs/demo/cebr/reports/the-future-of-road-transport-abolishing-traffic-jams/ should be given top priority.
2) HS2 needs to be made more economic and seen less as a standalone project. It needs to be redesigned to fit better with the urban transport improvements that are needed to unlock its benefits fully. One sensible economy is to consider splitting trains at key hubs to reduce station construction costs.
3) Crossrail 2 needs to be redesigned to make best use of HS2 by increasing the connectivity it offers to London’s main employment centres. This probably means a creating a ‘Crossrail Swap’. It should also open up more housing in East London and link the HS2 terminal at Euston to that of HS1 at St Pancras.
4) We need to develop port-based industrial zones, ideally free trade zones, to make use of coastal raw material supply and manufacturing becoming more logistics based. These zones will require high quality transport infrastructure connecting them with the rest of the country.
5) We need to become proactive about air travel, building infrastructure in line with need and not many years in arrears; with free trade zones around cargo airports to take advantage of the 35% by value of world physical trade which is air freighted. Also we now need to prepare for urban air taxis. Though not an exact model for the UK, it’s worth noting that Sao Paolo alone has 400 heliports and building regulations that high-rise buildings contain provision for heliports.
6) Boris’s bridge to Ireland may be a bridge too far but a joint Anglo-Irish agreement about improving the links across the UK from Ireland to the Continent makes sense, though Dublin ought to make a financial contribution.
7)Cebr also has innovative ideas about financing transport based on Mike McWilliams’ Finance Engineer Lease and Transfer concept. This can reduce the cost of risk by up to 50% which would substantially reduce the financing costs of privately financed infrastructure.
There is now an opportunity for Britain’s transport infrastructure to help drive the economy forward rather than hold it back. Why not take it?
Contact: Ian Birch ibirch@cebr.com or Douglas McWilliams dmcwilliams@cebr.com or Cebr: 0207 324 2850