The UK economy is slipping into recession. Cebr’s numbers are not very far apart from the OBR’s forecast of -1.4 per cent GDP growth next year. Yet, driven by the US Federal Reserve Bank, interest rates are still rising around the world, and it will be hard for the UK to reverse that trend for a few more months at least.
With Covid largely over in terms of its economic effects in the UK, and with growth post-Brexit roughly in line with Germany, serious analysts may be puzzled that the latest forecast for the budget deficit for the coming financial year 2023/24 is as high as £140bn.
Our analysis of the Autumn Statement starts by working out how we got here.
The budget deficit is essentially the difference between public spending and tax revenue raised. Both have underperformed.