The growth of resale, refurbished, and open-box markets has been one of the most notable consumer shifts of recent years. Often thought of in terms of second-hand clothing platforms or refurbished electronics, the Second Chance economy now stretches across multiple categories and geographies. Yet until now, its true scale and impact had not been measured.
In this context, we collaborated with Amazon, whose own Second Chance initiatives – ranging from the resale of returned products at discounted prices via Amazon Resale, to the offering of refurbished items backed by the Amazon Renewed Guarantee via Amazon Renewed – reflect the very consumer behaviours we set out to measure.
Our work covered five major European markets – namely the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain – combining large-scale consumer survey evidence with national accounts data and economic modelling. This approach allowed us to measure not just the size of the market, but also the savings generated for households, the contribution to economic output, and the sustainability benefits from keeping products in circulation for longer.
A market moving into the mainstream
As with all our work, the challenge was to cut through anecdote and quantify the reality. By grounding our estimates in robust national accounts data, aligning them with consumer survey evidence, and modelling behavioural responses, we were able to move from what people say about online Second Chance purchases to what they actually do, and what this means for the economy at large.
The findings were striking. In 2024, the online Second Chance economy was worth €21.6 billion across the five countries. The benefits went beyond just mere consumer expenditure however, with Second Chance keeping more than 740 million items in use. These numbers illustrate how consumer choices in aggregate can shift the balance of demand for resources, ease pressure on supply chains, and contribute meaningfully to Europe’s sustainability goals.
Wider implications for households, businesses and policymakers
The Second Chance economy is more than a story of bargains, however. It represents a structural shift in how households, firms and governments interact with consumption and sustainability. For families, the €37.7 billion saved in 2024 offered a buffer against the ongoing pressures of inflation and rising living costs. These savings were not left idle: nearly €32 billion flowed back into other purchases, sustaining demand in sectors far beyond resale and refurbishment.
For businesses, the growth of online Second Chance markets opens opportunities for new revenue streams and deeper customer engagement. Our findings suggest that consumers’ willingness to buy refurbished goods is strongest when there is trust in quality and durability. Platforms and businesses that can build that trust are well placed to capture a share of this expanding market, while also demonstrating alignment with consumer values around affordability and responsibility.
The environmental dividend is equally significant. By keeping over 740 million items in circulation, online Second Chance activity helped avoid significant raw material usage. This underlines its potential to support Europe’s broader shift towards a circular economy by reducing waste, easing pressure on supply chains, and contributing to sustainability targets that governments across the continent are striving to meet.
Different countries, different stories
While the overall trend of upwards momentum is consistent – the online Second Chance economy is expected to grow by €2 billion in 2025 – the motivations behind Second Chance purchases differ across countries. In Germany, durability and trust play a central role, whereas in France practicality dominates. In the UK, there is pride attached to securing a bargain, while in Spain and Italy affordability is the primary driver, although both markets show significant headroom for expansion as consumers grow more comfortable with refurbished and resale options. These differences matter, as they highlight how cultural norms and perceptions shape the trajectory of a single economic phenomenon across different contexts.
This collaboration with Amazon is another example of how Cebr’s independent analysis brings underexplored economic forces into sharper focus. By combining rigorous data with insights, we help clients turn complex questions into clear, actionable stories, whether for business strategy, policy influence, or public engagement. If you are interested in establishing a thought leadership programme, or learning more about our approach, click here
Contact:
Pushpin Singh, Managing Economist, psingh@cebr.com, 020 7324 2871