Over the past 15 years, Black Friday has cemented itself as a major fixture in the British retail calendar. Once virtually unknown, it is now a highly anticipated event among retailers and one that noticeably influences the UK’s seasonal spending habits. In anticipation of the 2025 season, Cebr has analysed Black Friday’s long-term economic footprint and forecasted how it is likely to shape up spending over the week ahead.

Even before Black Friday, November was long a slightly busier month for retailers. However, the share of annual spending attributed to November has increased in the last decade, largely coinciding with the growing popularity of Black Friday. Since 2013, when the event became more firmly established in the UK, average retail spending in November has been over 5% higher than the average for other months — up from only around 2% in the preceding decade.

How much of this higher turnover in November represents an actual economic boost is another question. It is not implausible that some spending on Black Friday is simply displaced from other periods of the year, with shoppers forgoing earlier sale periods or bringing forward their festive expenditure. Indeed, the share of spending attributed to December, the most important month for retailers, has shown a slight downward trend in recent years.

To quantify this, Cebr has examined how the pattern of November spending has evolved alongside Black Friday’s growing popularity, using Google Trends data. In doing so, we estimate that Black Friday has generated at least an additional £1 billion in retail spending for the UK economy each year since 2014. Its impact grew steadily from 2010 to 2019, before the pandemic interrupted this upward trajectory. Now, we expect some of that growth to return in 2025, bringing its impact to £1.5 billion, up from around £1.4 billion last year.


When looking at total retail spending over the 4-day “weekend” from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, we estimate that consumers will spend around £7 billion – roughly 30% more than would be expected in a counterfactual late November “weekend” without Black Friday. This represents a modest increase over an estimated £6.7 billion in 2024 and £6.9 billion in 2023.

What will this mean for the UK economy? The expected boost arrives against a mixed backdrop. Though income growth remains strong, consumption growth has been meagre, with consumers instead saving at elevated rates amidst high inflation and ongoing domestic and international policy uncertainty. At the same time, retailers report that consumers have further slowed spending in anticipation of both the Autumn Budget and Black Friday sales. As a result, many households have delayed major purchases, and turnout over the Black Friday weekend will carry added significance for many businesses.

Looking ahead, we expect Black Friday spending to grow modestly over the next couple of years, supported by steady growth in real consumption in 2026 and 2027. In practice, however, consumer engagement will also play a key role in shaping how spending evolves. Though it remains to be seen whether interest in Black Friday will mount further, its successful integration into the UK market means it will likely remain a key anchor of the retail calendar, shaping seasonal spending patterns in the years ahead.

For more information contact:
Mario Ventura, Economist
Email: mventura@cebr.com Phone: 020 7324 2859