From September 7 to 11, Tube and DLR strikes caused major travel disruption across London. Ahead of the strikes, Cebr estimated a direct economic cost of £230 million. This article outlines the economic rationale behind this estimate and considers the other factors dictating the wider impact of the strikes.
Estimating the direct impact of the Tube strikes
Following disputes between the Rail, Maritime and Transport (RMT) union and Transport for London (TfL) over staff pay and conditions, RMT members voted in favour of strike action, impacting Tube and DLR services for several days between September 7 and 11.
It was clear from the outset that disruption from the strikes would have an economic impact, but quantifying this required a robust underlying framework. We based our analysis on ‘lost working days’ – a widely-used approach for analysing the impact of strikes. This approach seeks to measure how a decrease in labour supply affects output. Lost working days are converted into lost output using data on earnings and Gross Value Added (GVA) per unit of earnings.
Cebr conducted the analysis ahead of the strikes, which required an estimate of the number of working days lost. To capture the full direct costs, this estimate accounted for working days lost among both striking workers and commuters unable to reach work. Although the Office for National Statistics (ONS) collects precise data on working days lost for striking workers, two factors required us to estimate this ourselves. First, the strikes had not yet taken place, and this ONS data is published with a lag of several months. More importantly, however, a major share of the direct costs was likely to come from non-striking commuters who lost working days due to being unable to reach work – an effect that isn’t
captured in the official lost working days data.
To estimate the number of lost working days, we drew on publicly available ONS data and Freedom of Information (FOI) requests. This allowed us to estimate (1) the number of TfL and DLR staff expected to strike, and (2) the proportion of Londoners reliant on the Tube or DLR for their work commutes and unable to work from home. We estimated approximately 700,000 working days would be lost over the week, most of which stemmed from commuters unable to reach work as opposed to striking TfL staff.
Applying sectoral earnings data and GVA per unit of earnings, we estimated the total direct economic loss in terms of GVA at £230 million.
The wider impact of strikes
On top of the £230 million in direct costs we estimated, the strikes would have resulted in indirect costs stemming from factors such as reduced consumer spending and increased congestion.
A major indirect cost results from reduced footfall in restaurants, shops, pubs, and leisure venues as consumer mobility is impeded. Recent reports offer evidence of these indirect impacts: UK Hospitality, the trade body for the hospitality sector, estimates that in the week of the Tube and DLR strikes, the sector may have suffered up to £600 million in lost sales. As our analysis was conducted before the strikes occurred, it was difficult to fully account for the range of consumer responses and spending patterns in
advance.
Another major indirect cost arises from greater congestion across alternative modes of transport and disrupted commuting patterns, which raise the cost of travel more broadly. For instance, the Elizabeth Line (not affected by strikes) and the bus network both experienced surges in passengers, while the London Ambulance Service reported a 44% increase in bike collisions. With commuters shifting to alternative methods of commuting, congestion further drove up the costs of those options. At the
same time, a shift to other modes of transport – particularly cycle hires – suggests that some commuters adapted to the strikes by using viable alternatives, potentially reducing the direct costs of future strikes.
Post-strike reflections and the rise of cycle hires
With the strikes now over, we can begin to reflect on how events unfolded and whether they aligned with expectations. While it’s still too early to compare the outturn data with our cost estimates – due to a lack of official figures – we can reflect on one of the most notable effects of the Tube strikes: a significant shift to cycle hires from commuters.
The popularity of cycle hires has grown rapidly over the last two years, encouraging more Londoners to consider cycling as a viable commuting option and reducing dependence on the Tube and DLR. Lime, the largest e- bike provider, reported rush hour surges of 50% or more for three consecutive days, and over a quarter of Londoners said they were more likely to cycle after the strikes. This shift suggests that strikes help to shape commuter behaviour. A willingness to shift to alternative modes of transport during strikes would potentially reduce the direct costs associated with lost working days in the future.
However, this trend requires nuance. Cycle hires remain more accessible to those already well-connected to their workplaces by road, meaning that their primary effect may have been to ease pressure on congested buses and roads, rather than expand access to workplaces. While the rise in cycling reflects a noteworthy shift that lowers the economic costs of train strikes, much of its effect is likely to operate through indirect channels rather than by directly increasing access to workplaces.
Final thoughts
Overall, the Tube and DLR strikes had wide-ranging economic effects, including estimated direct costs of £230 million. At the same time, a rise in cycle hires helped to mitigate some of these costs by offering an alternative travel option for some commuters.
More broadly, this estimate is intended not just as a headline figure, but also as a framework for thinking about the economic implications of disruptive events. At Cebr, we apply robust economic modelling to help clients quantify complex impacts and deliver clear, actionable insight (for instance, see our previous work on strikes).
Contact:
Mario Ventura, Economist, mventura@cebr.com, 020 7324 2859