Our conservative estimates are that lockdowns cost £118 billion in lost GDP, and possibly more than that in additional public spending. The current Covid Inquiry under Baroness Hallett is expected to cost £200 million[1]. While it is right that it covers medical outcomes, we must also account for the economic impacts and ask – was
Over the past few years, the world economy has faced a number of shocks that can be described as anything but ‘normal’. Global GDP fell by 2.8% in 2020, then bounced back from its Covid-induced recession, growing by 6.3% in 2021 (the highest since IMF records started in 1980) as vaccines became widely available. The
We expect the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold interest rates steady when they meet early next month, following confusing signals sent by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The ONS has recently made headlines with its decision to delay the release of critical labour market data. This move has raised concerns
The British and the French like to think of themselves as belonging to two very different countries, both culturally and economically. Looking at the data, this seems to hold some true across some key variables. For example, the French public sector plays a substantially larger role in the domestic economy compared to the UK. This
In an eerie repetition of the bond squeeze a year ago, which was caused by a combination of Bank of England failures and a bad market reaction to Liz Truss’s mini-budget, the yield on the UK government 30-year bond rose 21 basis points in the week to Wednesday 4 October to reach 5.00%, its highest
The UK Prime Minister is considering cancelling or delaying northern sections of HS2. This has been motivated by rising costs, with the scheme now potentially costing upwards of £100bn. These rising costs are not a surprise – it has long been clear that it is hard to justify HS2 on value for money grounds alone,
The UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has this week pushed back the date of the forthcoming ban on petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030 to 2035. He argues that this is a pragmatic move, that helps prevent UK households bearing large costs in the process of meeting the objective to deliver substantial carbon savings in
Central bank policymakers are once again finding themselves in a balancing act as they head into the September round of rate setting meetings, hoping to bring inflation down to the 2% target while minimising damage to the economy. Rising oil prices mean that their job has got considerably more difficult. For most of the year,
Following the recent data revision by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK is estimated to have performed significantly stronger than initially thought in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. The ONS now estimates that the UK economy in Q4 2021 was 0.6% larger than two years earlier before the start of the pandemic.
There were over 6,700 business insolvencies in Britain in Q2 2023, more than double what was seen in a typical quarter during the pandemic, though during that period businesses were largely protected from insolvency through a range of measures. However, even compared with a more normal period these are up by 50% compared with the
It’s interesting that no one official in China talks about when the Chinese economy will be bigger than that of the US. Their immediate objective is that China becomes a high income economy (defined by the World Bank’s metrics) by 2025. Having been remarkably successful at reducing (on their own figures they claim to have
The latest immigration figures for 2022 showed another steep increase in the number of people coming to the UK. Based on the latest estimates, nearly 1.2 million people immigrated in 2022 while around 557,000 left the country, leading to a net migration figure of 606,000. This is up by 118,000 compared to 2021. Looking at the
The analysis of VAT refund schemes for international visitors has become somewhat of a specialty at Cebr in recent years. With over a dozen reports across various jurisdictions, Cebr has been a leading voice in evaluating the costs and benefits associated with such schemes. Furthermore, we were asked to provide expert evidence in the court of
We are expecting a major inventory cycle in worldwide manufacturing over the next two years, hitting already fragile manufacturing sectors in global economies. Even in normal times, the shape of the current economic cycle would lead to a knock-on inventory cycle, but high interest rates will amplify its shape in 2024 and 2025. This will
Cebr’s last World Economic League Table (WELT) published in December 2022 suggested that China leapfrogging the US to become the world’s largest economy measured in dollar terms might be delayed to 2036 from the 2028 date previously forecast. The next version of WELT to be published this coming December will update this forecast but we