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Having access to faster data is extremely useful. But don’t ignore B2B and the knowledge economy
February 8, 2021

The coronavirus pandemic has been a challenge for economic forecasters. While we at Cebr have probably fared better than most other forecasters (our March 2020 forecasts revision predicted global output to decline by 4.0% for the year at a time when many of our rivals were still forecasting growth – the latest data suggest the

Could COVID-19 induced innovations have started a productivity turnaround in the UK?
February 1, 2021

In Q3 2020, a record 16% expansion in GDP helped push productivity in the UK – as measured by output per hour worked – to the highest it has ever been. Much of this can be attributed to sectoral factors, with traditionally low productivity sectors such as hospitality accounting for a smaller share of the economic

Tech P/Es are at levels reminiscent of those before the dotcom crash – but how long will the boom last?
January 10, 2021

There are two reasons for expecting that the market structure in tech sectors will differ from the model of perfect competition with plentiful companies competing on price, quality and increasingly innovation. First is the economics of information. Once some research has been completed, the costs of replication are very low. So we get what I

The world economy recovering at its fastest rate since 1976; the UK since 1941. Tourism, hospitality, tech and pharma to come roaring back in the second half of the year. But watch out for inflation.
December 31, 2020

Daniel Defoe in his Journal of the Plague Year points out that: ‘One mischief always introduces another. These terrors and apprehensions of the people led them into a thousand weak, foolish, and wicked things….and this was running about to fortune-tellers, cunning-men, and astrologers to know their fortune’. So much for forecasting. As far as I

World Economic League Table 2021
December 29, 2020

Click here to download the full report. Since its first publication in 2009, Cebr’s World Economic League Table (known as the WELT) has established itself as the go to measure of the comparative economic success of different countries. Media of all kinds around the world eagerly await the release of the latest issue every Boxing

Cebr comment on the provisional Brexit deal
December 24, 2020

Cebr welcomes the announcement of a provisional deal between the UK and the EU to regulate the post Brexit partnership. Obviously this deal remains unratified but we would expect it to be ratified, not necessarily without glitches. We will be examining the details in the coming days and will comment accordingly. As we said in

The Fiscal Impact of a permanent stamp duty holiday for Kensington Mortages
December 21, 2020

The full report can be downloaded here Executive Summary Stamp duty has long been a controversial tax. Critics highlight the role of the tax in stifling housing market activity and the seemingly arbitrary penalty it applies to properties that change hands more frequently, while advocates point to the tax’s progressive structure and its role in

Savings more than double in 2020, but the £197 billion question is will households spend them?
December 14, 2020

In April, Cebr forecast that in Q2, households would accumulate £23 billion more in savings than in a normal year. This note updates our projections, to calculate the total savings amassed by UK households in 2020 as a whole. We find that households will save 19% of their disposable incomes in 2020.[1] This is more

Covid-19 business impact tracker for E.ON
December 9, 2020

Covid-19 has brought about many difficulties for businesses in the UK. From a loss of demand, to new policies for social distancing, most enterprises have seen their resilience tested and have had to adapt to new ways of working in 2020. This report, for E.ON, measures the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on a range

Christmas spending to decline by £3bn this year with entertainment and hospitality set to lose out, while retailers see a boost
December 7, 2020

Like everything else this year, Christmas 2020 will be different. It has been a long and difficult year, and at times it was difficult to see anything but gloom – on people’s faces, in the news headlines, and within economic forecasts. However, a couple of recent developments (end of second lockdown and vaccine approval) have

Brexit – let them eat fish….
November 30, 2020

Last Tuesday there was a 5 mile lorry queue on the M20 near my home as the French allegedly tested Brexit procedures. It is still possible that this was a coincidence, though it happened at a tense time in the Brexit negotiations. Meanwhile a 27-acre site near the Ashford Designer Outlet shopping centre has been

Making road pricing work requires the Treasury not to be too greedy
November 23, 2020

The government’s green agenda has started to emerge in a series of announcements, mainly affecting motoring. Road pricing is again under active consideration, there is a threat of higher fuel taxes and the ban on sales of petrol and diesel vehicles, originally scheduled to commence in 2040, has been brought forward to 2030. Meanwhile, FairFuel

The Impact of Imposing an additional 2p on Fuel Duty
November 18, 2020

Cebr founder Douglas McWilliams presented the findings of our report for Fair Fuel UK and RHA to the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Motoring. The full report is available here and a summary can be found below.   Rumours in Whitehall have been rife as to how Rishi Sunak will pay off the huge Covid deficit.

Despite appearances, the UK is unlikely to be in the deep freeze under Biden
November 9, 2020

Despite appearances, the UK is unlikely to be in the deep freeze under Biden​   At the time of writing, we don’t know who will be declared winner in the US Presidential election. But on past form, the Democrats normally pull ahead when the postal votes get counted and the judicial system tends to rule

The second wave could reduce monthly GDP by about 5-10% in the Western world
November 2, 2020

France went into full lockdown on Friday. It is illegal to leave your home except for essential shopping, to work in essential businesses, for medical reasons or to take the one hour of exercise allowed. Non essential businesses will be shut down. Germany has announced also announced a national lockdown, though less severe than in

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