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Not quite as seismic as the Treasury spokesperson suggested…
June 14, 2021

The Treasury hailed the new G7 agreement for a minimum level of corporate tax announced on Saturday as ‘seismic’. I’m always a bit suspicious when normally staid bodies resort to extravagant language. Normally the explanation is quite prosaic, like the inexperience of the weekend duty press officer. But sometimes extravagant language is used as a

Euro 2020 will unleash an estimated £143 million into the UK economy through spending in pubs, ticket sales and stadium snacks
June 7, 2021

So far this Spring, Brits have responded to their newly restored freedoms with gusto, unleashing a wave of spending in the process. Add to this a spell of glorious weather (London is forecast to witness sunshine and temperatures in the mid-twenties throughout the next two weeks) and an England football team that looks poised for

The boot on the other foot – how to cope with the UK’s growing shortage of labour
May 31, 2021

They may not think so but in recent years British employers have had a relatively easy life. The combination of Thatcherite labour market deregulation, globalisation, migration and a huge increase in the number of older people working have meant that compared with their predecessors in the 1960s or 1970s and indeed compared with their counterparts

The Eurozone’s economic recovery is finally picking up the pace – and proponents of a fiscal union see a historic chance to take the next step
May 24, 2021

Based on the economic data releases and news of recent weeks one could be forgiven for thinking of the Eurozone economy as a basket case, doomed to lag behind the recoveries of other advanced economies. Just this week, Eurostat confirmed that the currency union entered a second technical recession since the pandemic began, following GDP

Douglas McWilliams, Deputy Chairman of Cebr, explains more about our Research for Protect & Connect
May 18, 2021

View the full interview here – https://www.protectandconnect.co.uk/report Our research demonstrates that the proposed revisions to the Electronic Communications code will: cost small landowners an extra £50 million per year – on top of the £209 million per year the existing changes to the Code have already cost them slow down the UK’s 5G rollout, with up to 9 million people missing

Sometimes our most useful forecasts are those that turn out wrong!
May 17, 2021

Reading some of the media in recent weeks we at Cebr have a sense of déjà vu. Some of the stories seem simply to show how other people are now catching up with what we were predicting half a year ago. Ambrose Evans Pritchard in the Telegraph said (12 May) that the UK’s recovery might

If we keep the present migration arrangements, it will cost an additional £30 billion a year in higher taxes within a decade
May 10, 2021

At the beginning of the year, a report claimed [1] that up to 1.3 million people born abroad had left the UK during 2020 as jobs in sectors such as hospitality and construction disappeared. Relatively quickly, it became clear that the figure was vastly overblown and that the pandemic had introduced some serious response bias

Carbon Border Taxes could transform world trade, but the cost is likely to be higher prices
May 4, 2021

The UK has given a high level of priority to the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow on 1 – 12 November 2021, with a leading Cabinet Minister, Alok Sharma, being specifically tasked with making the conference a success. This partly reflects the country’s need to acquire a different international

The main economics question right now: Will the fiscal and monetary blowout lead to a serious bout of inflation?
April 25, 2021

We are currently undertaking an amazing live experiment to see if the traditional belief that highly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies will eventually lead to a revival of high inflation, leading to higher interest rates and then a recession, still holds true today. In the decade since the financial crisis, advanced economies were more likely

What the first months have told us about Brexit
April 19, 2021

Download the full report here. It is still far too early to reach a definitive view on the basis of two months of trade data about how Brexit is likely to work out. But there are some hints from the data and the diplomatic developments so far and we have tried to analyse them to

Brits to spend £1.4 billion on garden centres and DIY stores this Easter while other non-essential shops remain closed
April 5, 2021

The Easter weekend has traditionally been one of the highlights for retailers with shoppers being enticed to venture out and make the best of the long bank holiday weekend. However, with most non-essential stores still closed, this Easter will test the patience of retailers across the country while garden centres and DIY stores are set

One year since lockdown: The £251 billion cost to the UK economy
March 22, 2021

A year ago this week, Cebr closed its office for an indefinite period, in light of the hastening spread of a new coronavirus. Countless workplaces up and down the country did the same. Many were prompted towards mass remote working, while businesses more reliant on face-to-face contact ceased their operations completely. It was clear that

China’s net zero plan means a huge transformation between 2025 and 2060
March 15, 2021

China dominates the world market for most types of electric vehicles. The Chinese stock of electric cars at 4.6 million is 42% of the world’s total. For electric buses the share is even higher at 98%, for vans it’s 65%. Underpinning this is the Chinese production of lithium ion batteries – where 77% of the world’s

The trick is knowing how to bring the party to an end before the furniture starts to get smashed….
March 3, 2021

The Chancellor stood up this lunchtime with two major tasks: to ensure that the UK economy recovers post Covid and to bring public finances back under control. Despite the record-contraction in GDP in 2020, it was never going to be too difficult to get the economy to bounce back this year as long as vaccination

Institutional confidence is strengthening cryptocurrencies, but could this ultimately undermine their appeal?
February 15, 2021

In the years since Bitcoin first entered the public eye, it has gone from a relatively obscure and fringe cryptocurrency to an increasingly mainstream digital asset. Indeed, it appears that the crypto initially known for its fully anonymous features is in the process of becoming an accepted and legitimate payment method and asset. The price

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