The coronavirus pandemic has been a challenge for economic forecasters. While we at Cebr have probably fared better than most other forecasters (our March 2020 forecasts revision predicted global output to decline by 4.0% for the year at a time when many of our rivals were still forecasting growth – the latest data suggest the

In Q3 2020, a record 16% expansion in GDP helped push productivity in the UK – as measured by output per hour worked – to the highest it has ever been. Much of this can be attributed to sectoral factors, with traditionally low productivity sectors such as hospitality accounting for a smaller share of the economic

There are two reasons for expecting that the market structure in tech sectors will differ from the model of perfect competition with plentiful companies competing on price, quality and increasingly innovation. First is the economics of information. Once some research has been completed, the costs of replication are very low. So we get what I

Daniel Defoe in his Journal of the Plague Year points out that: ‘One mischief always introduces another. These terrors and apprehensions of the people led them into a thousand weak, foolish, and wicked things….and this was running about to fortune-tellers, cunning-men, and astrologers to know their fortune’. So much for forecasting. As far as I

Click here to download the full report. Since its first publication in 2009, Cebr’s World Economic League Table (known as the WELT) has established itself as the go to measure of the comparative economic success of different countries. Media of all kinds around the world eagerly await the release of the latest issue every Boxing

Cebr welcomes the announcement of a provisional deal between the UK and the EU to regulate the post Brexit partnership. Obviously this deal remains unratified but we would expect it to be ratified, not necessarily without glitches. We will be examining the details in the coming days and will comment accordingly. As we said in

The full report can be downloaded here Executive Summary Stamp duty has long been a controversial tax. Critics highlight the role of the tax in stifling housing market activity and the seemingly arbitrary penalty it applies to properties that change hands more frequently, while advocates point to the tax’s progressive structure and its role in

In April, Cebr forecast that in Q2, households would accumulate £23 billion more in savings than in a normal year. This note updates our projections, to calculate the total savings amassed by UK households in 2020 as a whole. We find that households will save 19% of their disposable incomes in 2020.[1] This is more

Covid-19 has brought about many difficulties for businesses in the UK. From a loss of demand, to new policies for social distancing, most enterprises have seen their resilience tested and have had to adapt to new ways of working in 2020. This report, for E.ON, measures the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on a range

Like everything else this year, Christmas 2020 will be different. It has been a long and difficult year, and at times it was difficult to see anything but gloom – on people’s faces, in the news headlines, and within economic forecasts. However, a couple of recent developments (end of second lockdown and vaccine approval) have

Last Tuesday there was a 5 mile lorry queue on the M20 near my home as the French allegedly tested Brexit procedures. It is still possible that this was a coincidence, though it happened at a tense time in the Brexit negotiations. Meanwhile a 27-acre site near the Ashford Designer Outlet shopping centre has been

The government’s green agenda has started to emerge in a series of announcements, mainly affecting motoring. Road pricing is again under active consideration, there is a threat of higher fuel taxes and the ban on sales of petrol and diesel vehicles, originally scheduled to commence in 2040, has been brought forward to 2030. Meanwhile, FairFuel

Cebr founder Douglas McWilliams presented the findings of our report for Fair Fuel UK and RHA to the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Motoring. The full report is available here and a summary can be found below.   Rumours in Whitehall have been rife as to how Rishi Sunak will pay off the huge Covid deficit.

Despite appearances, the UK is unlikely to be in the deep freeze under Biden​   At the time of writing, we don’t know who will be declared winner in the US Presidential election. But on past form, the Democrats normally pull ahead when the postal votes get counted and the judicial system tends to rule

France went into full lockdown on Friday. It is illegal to leave your home except for essential shopping, to work in essential businesses, for medical reasons or to take the one hour of exercise allowed. Non essential businesses will be shut down. Germany has announced also announced a national lockdown, though less severe than in