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The Flat White Economy is about to go flat – the UK’s tech economy powered through the pandemic but looks likely to fall back relative to that in other countries in the coming years
March 27, 2023

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank draws attention to the continuing problems of the tech sector both in the US and here in the UK. While the Bank of England claims that there are no systemic issues in the UK resulting from the collapse it appears that many UK tech companies, perhaps a third, had relationships

While the Budget was distracting UK economists, a banking crisis was the real news…
March 17, 2023

The markets may have been unimpressed by yesterday’s Budget. But we will never know. The fall in both the equity and bond markets on Wednesday was all about the emerging banking crisis as the share price of Credit Suisse collapsed, not the Budget. While British economists were distracted by the Budget, one of the world’s

How to manage an economy that’s run out of growth …
March 15, 2023

Today’s Budget is the first against a background where economic growth in the UK has virtually ground to a halt. Official estimates of GDP for the end of last year (Q4) is estimated to have been 0.8% lower than in Q4 2019 pre pandemic and yet the labour market remains tight with unemployment stubbornly below 4%.

Is there really £60 billion to pay for goodies in the Spring Statement on 15 March?
March 13, 2023

Cebr has consistently pointed out that the fiscal outlook is nowhere near as bleak as official forecasts had indicated and data has emerged supporting our view, especially the borrowing data for January. In the past week, other organisations have joined the debate. The venerable National Institute for Economic and Social Research is alleged to have

Inflation is falling but the real test for the Bank of England is yet to come
March 6, 2023

Recent news on inflation has been mostly positive in the UK. In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that annual price increases slowed for a third consecutive month to reach 10.1%, down from a near-term high of 11.1% last October. However, forecasts that inflation will now quickly fall back to the Bank of England’s 2%

Renters at least four times more likely than outright homeowners to experience financial vulnerability as housing costs set to take centre stage in the cost-of-living crisis
February 27, 2023

Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this week provide rich insight into the nation’s recent experience with financial vulnerability. [1] The data, covering September 2022 to January 2023, reveal that respondents’ housing status is one of the strongest predictors of individuals’ likelihood of experiencing some form of financial vulnerability, even when controlling for

The Times – Impact on global growth from China’s reopening will be ‘limited’
February 22, 2023

China’s economic reopening will provide a limited boost to world growth this year and is unlikely to lead to a surge in global energy price inflation, a think tank has said. The Centre for Economics and Business Research estimates that China’s shift towards domestically generated consumer growth means there will be far more limited “spillover”

Hopes that China’s reopening will save global growth in 2023 are likely misplaced – here’s why…
February 20, 2023

China’s abrupt dismantling of its ‘zero-Covid’ policy towards the end of last year has provided optimism amidst the gloom associated with the global economic landscape. Indeed, many analysts believe that China’s reopening can provide an uplift to global GDP in an otherwise bleak outlook for the rest of the world, amidst elevated inflation, tighter monetary

Elite Business – SMBs will drive economic recovery – but they require innovation to succeed
February 17, 2023

There is no doubt that the immediate economic picture for the UK is challenging and is likely to get worse before it will get better. Research shows SMBs will be instrumental to economic recovery in the UK.   There is no doubt that the immediate economic picture for the UK is challenging and is likely to

YouGov – Consumer confidence rises as the public get more optimistic about household finances
February 17, 2023

Consumer confidence increased by 2.4 points in January 2023   Short-term (+5.7) and forward-looking (+10.5) household finance measures saw significant improvements   House value measures for the past 30 days (+3.7) and next 12 months (+5.8) also trended upwards  Job security and business activity metrics declined  Improving household finance and house value measures helped consumer confidence jump

Reuters – UK consumer sentiment jumps in January: YouGov/Cebr survey
February 13, 2023

LONDON, Feb 10 (Reuters) – British households’ expectations for their personal finances over the next 12 months recorded a record jump in January as wholesale gas prices fell, according to a monthly survey by market research company YouGov and economics consultancy Cebr. The overall YouGov/Cebr consumer confidence index rose by 2.4 points to 98.3, while

BusinessNewsWales – Thousands Across Newport Missing Out on Faster Broadband
February 13, 2023

Less than 20 per cent of people and businesses who can upgrade to Ultrafast Full Fibre across Newport have done so – with thousands still missing out on faster, more reliable broadband services. Following a £9.3 million pound local investment, Openreach engineers have been busy building the network to make ultrafast speeds of up to one gigabit per second

The new Department for Energy Security and Net Zero gives us a chance to reset energy policy
February 13, 2023

A new Department focused on the energy portfolio is a step forwards, and reflects a realisation by the government of the growing importance of energy. However, “Energy Security and Net Zero” sounds like a dichotomy – can we really have both? I think that there is a way, but it will require bold decisions and

The scope for improving public sector efficiency is immense but without the required investment it will remain elusive
February 6, 2023

New statistics released in the past week show that UK public sector productivity, far from rising from its depressed post-Covid level, had actually fallen by 1.3% in Q3 of last year compared with Q2. And in in the second quarter it was already 6.8% lower than three years earlier pre covid or 8.6% lower than it

St James’s Place – North-South Wealth Divide Deepens
February 3, 2023

North-South wealth divide deepens, as St. James’s Place’s Financial Health Index reveals extent of economic disparity across the UK Overall financial health is seven times higher in the South East than in the North East – a significantly greater gap than this time last year In the last year, regions in the North of England have seen

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