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Reports

Highest tax burden in over 50 years will unnecessarily hamper UK economic recovery
September 13, 2021

This week saw the announcement of the Government’s plans for long-awaited reform to the social care system, an issue that has plagued Prime Ministers for decades. The reforms, which come into force from October 2023, involve a cap of £86,000 on the care costs paid by individuals across their lifetime, and tapered care cost support for

Afghanistan is one of the world’s poorest countries. It may just about to be transformed economically by the Chinese – despite the Taliban
September 6, 2021

We normally allocate the country reports for Cebr’s World Economic League Table in turn. I traditionally get the first country on the list which is Afghanistan. And so I’ve been writing a macro report on its economy each year for the past four years. Over this period, the prospects for the economy have gradually deteriorated.

The UK car industry has been suffering and Covid is just a part of the problem
August 31, 2021

The latest SMMT data on car production show that in July, UK manufacturers assembled less than 54,000 new cars. This is the worst July figure since 1956 and a 37.4% year-on-year decline [1]. Up until March this year, car production had seen reasonable month-on-month growth rates and seemed to be recovering from its 2020 woes

The labour market threatens to slide into a two-speed recovery with older workers most vulnerable
August 23, 2021

The last 18 months have seen a drastic uptick in redundancies, furloughed workers and economic inactivity – and although the labour market is on the mend, not everyone participates in the recovery equally.  Many elderly people have dropped out of the labour force which could pose a greater problem to the economic recovery than is

The backwash from a US monetary tightening could hit emerging markets at the same time as lack of vaccination is delaying their post-Covid recovery
August 16, 2021

My former CBI colleague Andrew Sentence recently described central banks’ typical attitude to emerging inflation as initial denial that there is a problem, then suggesting it was ‘just a blip’, then admitting that there are inflationary pressures but that ‘they are only temporary’, before finally realising that inflation had in fact taken off, requiring urgent

International travel restrictions could mean an £11bn spending shortfall by the end of the year, with London accounting for £7bn as other areas plug the gap with staycationers
August 5, 2021

With most Covid-related restrictions lifted and the ‘pingdemic’ set to ease drastically on 16th August, as fully vaccinated individuals avoid having to isolate following contact with someone that tests positive, one of the final remaining frontiers in the fight for normality is international travel. The current rules for international travel generally depend on the colour

Could the Chinese, unlike Gordon Brown, have ‘abolished boom and bust’ despite an average property costing 28 times average income?
August 2, 2021

In the last month, China’s highly successful private tutoring companies and many of its top tech companies, including entertainment giant Tencent, online retailer AliBaba and ride hailing app Didi, have all fallen foul of new Chinese government regulations and faced sharp share price falls. Meanwhile the second-largest Chinese property company Evergrande, which has now broken

New pings data suggest £4.6 billion self-isolation cost to the economy following Freedom Day
July 22, 2021

With Covid-19 cases exploding in recent weeks, so has the number of self-isolation ‘pings’ received by unsuspecting individuals via the NHS COVID-19 app, asking them to isolate for 10 days. This has led to a headache for business owners, many of whom are only now getting their operations back to normal after months of restrictions.

Levelling up the Green Book – A Cebr Report for Homes for the North
July 22, 2021

In his first speech as Prime Minister, Boris Johnson promised to ‘level up across Britain’ and ‘answer the plea of the forgotten people and the left-behind towns’. In doing so, he pledged to ‘unleash the productive power’ of every corner of the country and made clear that boosting economic performance would be a priority of

Stimulus spending can’t go on forever – but cutting Universal Credit too early risks derailing the economic recovery just as it gets going
July 19, 2021

It is clear that the Universal Credit (UC) uplift of £20 per week has improved the living standards of the UK’s worst-off households since it was implemented in March 2020, helping many to stay above the poverty line. Cebr’s Income Tracker research – conducted with ASDA – confirms this, showing that the increased value of social

Lifting of restrictions on Freedom Day to boost UK GDP by £2.2 billion per month
July 12, 2021

In more ordinary times, economic trajectories are shaped by technological advances, demographic trends and policymakers’ use of fiscal or monetary levers. Over the past 16 months, by far the most influential driver of the UK’s economic performance has been the public health restrictions implemented in order to control the spread of Covid-19. The government has

Supporting a Global Britain – The Economic impact of Heathrow Airport
July 6, 2021

Download the full report here. Cebr has undertaken research to quantify the economic impact associated with Heathrow Airport. Headline results are summarised below. In 2019, the value of trade going through Heathrow Airport stood at approximately £188bn. Cebr forecast that by 2025 this will grow to over £204bn, representing 21.2% and 32.0% of UK trade of goods and non-EU trade of

The shortage economy – if shortages cause inflation to hit 10%, it might cost 4% of GDP to get it back down again
July 2, 2021

Most readers will not remember the shortages of the early 1970s and specifically 1973 and 1974. My parents were furnishing a newly built house overlooking the first fairway of the Muirfield golf course in December 1973 and I vividly remember them having to get the furniture made in Malaysia and then shipped to the UK

Whether inflation becomes persistent will depend on the labour market
June 28, 2021

Inflation is back. US CPI inflation hit 5.0% this May, the highest reading in 13 years, while UK inflation soared above the Bank of England’s target to 2.1% in the same month. Even the eurozone, where a slower initial vaccine roll-out has led to a delayed recovery, saw above target inflation of 2.0% last month.

London, Manchester, Glasgow, Newcastle and Cardiff set to see a total of £322 million a month lost in city centre spending as offices plan for hybrid working long-term
June 21, 2021

Cebr calculates that the coronavirus pandemic has resulted in a total of £11.9 billion of displaced city centre spending, as many workers swapped offices for their homes in major UK cities. This is the amount we estimate that workers would have otherwise spent in shops, pubs and eateries near employment hubs in five of the

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