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Reports

Could the Chinese, unlike Gordon Brown, have ‘abolished boom and bust’ despite an average property costing 28 times average income?
August 2, 2021

In the last month, China’s highly successful private tutoring companies and many of its top tech companies, including entertainment giant Tencent, online retailer AliBaba and ride hailing app Didi, have all fallen foul of new Chinese government regulations and faced sharp share price falls. Meanwhile the second-largest Chinese property company Evergrande, which has now broken

New pings data suggest £4.6 billion self-isolation cost to the economy following Freedom Day
July 22, 2021

With Covid-19 cases exploding in recent weeks, so has the number of self-isolation ‘pings’ received by unsuspecting individuals via the NHS COVID-19 app, asking them to isolate for 10 days. This has led to a headache for business owners, many of whom are only now getting their operations back to normal after months of restrictions.

Levelling up the Green Book – A Cebr Report for Homes for the North
July 22, 2021

In his first speech as Prime Minister, Boris Johnson promised to ‘level up across Britain’ and ‘answer the plea of the forgotten people and the left-behind towns’. In doing so, he pledged to ‘unleash the productive power’ of every corner of the country and made clear that boosting economic performance would be a priority of

Stimulus spending can’t go on forever – but cutting Universal Credit too early risks derailing the economic recovery just as it gets going
July 19, 2021

It is clear that the Universal Credit (UC) uplift of £20 per week has improved the living standards of the UK’s worst-off households since it was implemented in March 2020, helping many to stay above the poverty line. Cebr’s Income Tracker research – conducted with ASDA – confirms this, showing that the increased value of social

Lifting of restrictions on Freedom Day to boost UK GDP by £2.2 billion per month
July 12, 2021

In more ordinary times, economic trajectories are shaped by technological advances, demographic trends and policymakers’ use of fiscal or monetary levers. Over the past 16 months, by far the most influential driver of the UK’s economic performance has been the public health restrictions implemented in order to control the spread of Covid-19. The government has

Supporting a Global Britain – The Economic impact of Heathrow Airport
July 6, 2021

Download the full report here. Cebr has undertaken research to quantify the economic impact associated with Heathrow Airport. Headline results are summarised below. In 2019, the value of trade going through Heathrow Airport stood at approximately £188bn. Cebr forecast that by 2025 this will grow to over £204bn, representing 21.2% and 32.0% of UK trade of goods and non-EU trade of

The shortage economy – if shortages cause inflation to hit 10%, it might cost 4% of GDP to get it back down again
July 2, 2021

Most readers will not remember the shortages of the early 1970s and specifically 1973 and 1974. My parents were furnishing a newly built house overlooking the first fairway of the Muirfield golf course in December 1973 and I vividly remember them having to get the furniture made in Malaysia and then shipped to the UK

Whether inflation becomes persistent will depend on the labour market
June 28, 2021

Inflation is back. US CPI inflation hit 5.0% this May, the highest reading in 13 years, while UK inflation soared above the Bank of England’s target to 2.1% in the same month. Even the eurozone, where a slower initial vaccine roll-out has led to a delayed recovery, saw above target inflation of 2.0% last month.

London, Manchester, Glasgow, Newcastle and Cardiff set to see a total of £322 million a month lost in city centre spending as offices plan for hybrid working long-term
June 21, 2021

Cebr calculates that the coronavirus pandemic has resulted in a total of £11.9 billion of displaced city centre spending, as many workers swapped offices for their homes in major UK cities. This is the amount we estimate that workers would have otherwise spent in shops, pubs and eateries near employment hubs in five of the

Not quite as seismic as the Treasury spokesperson suggested…
June 14, 2021

The Treasury hailed the new G7 agreement for a minimum level of corporate tax announced on Saturday as ‘seismic’. I’m always a bit suspicious when normally staid bodies resort to extravagant language. Normally the explanation is quite prosaic, like the inexperience of the weekend duty press officer. But sometimes extravagant language is used as a

Euro 2020 will unleash an estimated £143 million into the UK economy through spending in pubs, ticket sales and stadium snacks
June 7, 2021

So far this Spring, Brits have responded to their newly restored freedoms with gusto, unleashing a wave of spending in the process. Add to this a spell of glorious weather (London is forecast to witness sunshine and temperatures in the mid-twenties throughout the next two weeks) and an England football team that looks poised for

The boot on the other foot – how to cope with the UK’s growing shortage of labour
May 31, 2021

They may not think so but in recent years British employers have had a relatively easy life. The combination of Thatcherite labour market deregulation, globalisation, migration and a huge increase in the number of older people working have meant that compared with their predecessors in the 1960s or 1970s and indeed compared with their counterparts

The Eurozone’s economic recovery is finally picking up the pace – and proponents of a fiscal union see a historic chance to take the next step
May 24, 2021

Based on the economic data releases and news of recent weeks one could be forgiven for thinking of the Eurozone economy as a basket case, doomed to lag behind the recoveries of other advanced economies. Just this week, Eurostat confirmed that the currency union entered a second technical recession since the pandemic began, following GDP

Douglas McWilliams, Deputy Chairman of Cebr, explains more about our Research for Protect & Connect
May 18, 2021

View the full interview here – https://www.protectandconnect.co.uk/report Our research demonstrates that the proposed revisions to the Electronic Communications code will: cost small landowners an extra £50 million per year – on top of the £209 million per year the existing changes to the Code have already cost them slow down the UK’s 5G rollout, with up to 9 million people missing

Sometimes our most useful forecasts are those that turn out wrong!
May 17, 2021

Reading some of the media in recent weeks we at Cebr have a sense of déjà vu. Some of the stories seem simply to show how other people are now catching up with what we were predicting half a year ago. Ambrose Evans Pritchard in the Telegraph said (12 May) that the UK’s recovery might

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