Amongst the plentiful economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, arguably the most significant has been the acceleration in the adoption of remote working. In addition to changing the structure of the labour market, this has had implications for the regional distribution of economic activity. This has been of particular detriment to London, shifting output away from
The headlines from the recent Spring Budget were rightly dominated by the 2p decrease in National Insurance Contributions, given it will make a notable difference in workers’ take-home pay, even if obscured by other tax changes. There were other commendable announcements, too, notably changes to child benefit charge thresholds and a focus on improving public
Cebr analysis published last week considered the effect of the leap year day on earnings. In this short follow-up note, we present our estimates of the GDP impact. Though higher frequency economic statistics are seasonally- and calendar-adjusted, meaning the impact of extra working days is largely smoothed out, there is no adjustment for leap days
Thanks to Pope Gregory XIII’s overhaul of the shoddy Julian calendar in 1582, 2024 is a leap year. Relative to 2023, England will see three extra working days this year: one for the leap year day of February 29th, one due to the lack of a coronation, meaning fewer public holidays, and one less weekend day. This
In October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) unexpectedly pulled the plug on the publication of some of its flagship labour market statistics, covering metrics such as unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity. Citing issues with sample sizes and the broader methodology behind the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the statistics were deemed to be unreliable. The figures
The UK housing market has faced a period of significant headwinds, with elevated mortgage rates, a sluggish economy, and a cost-of-living crisis all contributing towards a gloomy picture. Indeed, the most recent official data released by the Land Registry are particularly notable, demonstrating that average UK house prices fell by 2.1% on an annual basis in
In September last year, Cebr predicted that we would see 7,000 companies going insolvent each quarter in the UK in 2024 [1]. When the data came out for Q4 2023 about a week ago it was clear that we had reached that level already, with 6,788 insolvencies in England and Wales, 314 in Scotland and 81
The UK economy has battled sluggish growth for years. Though shocks such as the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis take a large share of the blame, questions remain regarding the country’s economic fundamentals. Still, signs are emerging that the economy has already hit the depths of the current economic cycle and is, therefore, now on the path
The September UK borrowing figures indicated to the OBR that borrowing was running £19.8 billion below forecast. Just two months later, the November data showed borrowing £6.3 billion above forecast. A £26 billion turnaround in two months is quite a change. At first sight the financial turnaround suggested a dramatic collapse in public finances. But
Arguments in favour of government childcare support are often built on emotional pillars, pleading to one’s sense of righteousness – we should help parents with childcare because it is the fair thing to do, the nice thing to do. It is the fair and nice thing to do, but it is also the economically sensible
We are predicting a recovery in disposable income which might encourage a late election but is unlikely to be sufficient to change the result. The Prime Minister has announced that it is his working assumption that the next UK General Election will be held in the second half of 2024. Given the predictions in Cebr’s
Last year’s Christmas season was the weakest for retailers since 1998, with elevated inflation and reduced consumer spending power leading to a significant cutback in festive expenditure. This continued a trend of problematic recent festive periods for retailers. Christmas 2020 was significantly impacted by pandemic-related restriction measures, which reduced retail sales. 2021 was on the
At the time of Brexit, few thought it would be followed by a two- to three-fold increase in net migration INTO the UK. Yet new migration data have recently been released that seem to suggest that this is, in fact, the case. Compared to a pre-Brexit average of around 250,000 a year, net migration into
With the clocks going back and the nights drawing in, once again it is time to assess the likelihood of the lights going out this winter. Each Autumn National Grid, the Electricity System Operator (ESO), publishes its annual Winter Outlook report – its own assessment of this issue. In the past few years, we have
“Central banks have come under fire for missing their inflation targets, but at least as much because their inflation forecasts have really missed outturns.” This is a quote from a recent speech by Catherine Mann, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member. It is a position that seems to be shared across the Bank, given the terms