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Expected falls in house prices unlikely to make housing more affordable for young buyers
September 20, 2022

Since at least November of last year, Cebr has stressed that 2023 would be a challenging year for the UK housing market. We currently expect prices to fall by 4.5% on average next year, with a peak annual contraction of 6.2% expected in Q3 2023. This comes amid sharp rises in mortgage rates, significant cost-of-living

New £2,500 UK energy price cap set to limit inflation by nearly five percentage points
September 9, 2022

As announced by the new Prime Minister Liz Truss this lunchtime, the energy price cap in the UK is set to be frozen at £2,500 from 1 October 2022 for two years. This is Truss’s first major policy announcement, as the UK faces a severe cost-of-living crisis. Ofgem had reported last month that the energy

Fed up – Jerome Powell’s crusade against inflation might be over sooner than expected
September 5, 2022

Last Friday, Jerome Powell delivered some hard truths at the economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. At Cebr, we have been musing for a while that the US Federal Reserve chairman still harbours some resentment towards his staff given how far off the Fed’s economists were in their assessment of domestic inflationary pressures. In the

Drought set to compound crisis in food production next year, driving up monthly food expenditure up by more than £1bn
August 29, 2022

UK consumers are struggling to cope with the worsening cost-of-living crisis. On Friday morning, Ofgem published the new energy price cap which sees the average UK household paying £3,549 per year for energy, up by 178% on the previous year. The sharp increases in energy bills are threatening to push many towards fuel poverty. But it

Cost of living: additional support may be needed, but must be targeted and not distort price signals
August 22, 2022

Since Boris Johnson resigned on 7th July, two candidates for leadership of the Conservative Party, and consequently for the post of Prime Minister, have emerged: former Chancellor Rishi Sunak and current Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. Against the backdrop of the worsening cost-of-living crisis, their proposed economic policies, and in particular their plans to support households

Is there scope for making the public sector more efficient?
August 15, 2022

Tory leadership front runner Liz Truss is planning to raise public sector ‘efficiency’. And certainly the Twittersphere is full of examples where the public sector could be run better. But it is equally full of examples of private sector inefficiency as well, especially in those industries that have been privatised without introducing competition. Are there

A tale of two labour markets: following a couple of underperforming years, highest earners now enjoy annual pay growth of 10%, while lowest earners see just a 1% rise
August 8, 2022

In the months since the cost-of-living crisis has come into focus, wage growth statistics have become of particular interest.  Two prevalent yet opposing narratives have emerged. One focuses on the significant bargaining power held by employees as they take advantage of the tight labour market to negotiate record pay rises and generous bonuses. The other

Women’s Euro 2022 tournament has directly supported £152 million of expenditure, fuelled by England’s success
July 29, 2022

This weekend brings the final of the Women’s Euro 2022 tournament, as England face Germany. After the men’s team finished just short in last year’s European Championships, this marks a second major final in as many summers for England’s representatives. Success has not only been limited to the pitch, however, with hosting the tournament generating

Can the UK afford tax cuts? Net tax receipts in 2024/25 (even after allowing for additional spending) will be £60 billion more than the Chancellor’s calculations imply
July 18, 2022

The election campaign for leader of the Conservative party has been lit up by most candidates promising tax cuts. Obviously, Chancellor Sunak, who is bound by his policies as Chancellor, has been less able to join in but even he has promised tax cuts when possible. Meanwhile much of the commentariat (including Cebr spokespersons) have

How rising shipping costs have hindered the UK’s attempts to boost exports outside the EU
July 11, 2022

The UK’s trade figures have been buffeted of late by changes of definition and accounting practices, large flows of ‘erratics’, rising energy and commodity prices and rising shipping costs. This hasn’t inhibited zealots on all sides from claiming that they ‘prove’ that either Brexit has not been a failure (few go so far as to

Recession risk in Europe rises to 40% as Putin turns off the gas
July 4, 2022

Last week, Germany triggered stage two of its emergency gas plan, following a significant reduction in Russian gas exports to the Eurozone’s largest economy. Russia’s state energy company Gazprom cut exports through the NordStream 1 pipeline by around 60% and planned maintenance downtime July is widely considered a convenient opportunity for Putin to shut the

Home rental prices rise by more than 10% for new contracts, but Cebr expects cost-of-living pressures to lead to slower growth next year
June 27, 2022

It’s not a great time to move to a new rented home. The average rent agreed for new contracts rose by 10.6% across the UK in the year to May 2022, with prices in London rising the fastest – at 15.7%1. This is considerably up on rent increases at the same time last year when

There is scope for cooperation between China and the West – we have a suggestion to help improve relations…
June 20, 2022

Amidst global economic volatility, China seems to be struggling to maintain its course. Economists have slashed growth forecasts for the mainland, with the most pessimistic hovering at around 2% for 2022, a far cry from the 5.5% Beijing projected earlier this year. The strongest economic headwind of all is China’s ‘Covid-zero’ strategy. Harsh, targeted yet

Rail and tube strikes to cause hit of at least £91m to the UK economy, with London set to suffer the biggest output loss
June 10, 2022

This week, the Rail, Maritime and Transport (RMT) union announced a national three-day strike across the UK rail network. The strike, which is scheduled to take place on Tuesday 21st, Thursday 23rd and Saturday 25th June and cover over 40,000 rail workers across the UK, comes following fraught negotiations over jobs, pay and pensions. According to

Chancellor wakes up to the need for targeted cost-of-living support, but this may only be a temporary plaster
May 27, 2022

Yesterday’s announcement by Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer, signals that the Government is waking up to the extreme challenges faced by many UK households as prices continue to soar. All in all, the May 2022 Cost of Living Support package represents a generous intervention, which will particularly help the most vulnerable households in keeping

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