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The average worker produced £149 more in Q1 relative to a year earlier, but only at the cost of working three additional hours
May 20, 2024

Each UK worker produced 0.8% more output in Q1 2024 than the same period one year ago, equivalent to £149 each. However, this was only possible because the average employee worked an additional 2.9 hours, according to Cebr calculations based on flash estimates from the ONS released last week. This means that productivity has essentially

Claims that Poland will be richer than the UK this decade are overambitious but only just
May 13, 2024

Donald Tusk, Polish Prime Minister and ex-President of the European Council, made a splash recently when he promised that the Polish would be richer than the British by 2029 on social media. This isn’t a new claim. Keir Starmer warned last year that Poland would overtake the UK economically by 2030 if growth trends continued.

Poor economic growth to leave Welsh GDP per capita £1,100 short of pre-pandemic levels this year
May 6, 2024

The UK’s economic performance in recent years has largely been described as sluggish. Beneath the negativity at the headline level lie figures showing even worse economic performance for particular geographic areas. The devolved nations of Scotland and Wales arguably present the two clearest examples. Both of these economies have hardly grown in recent years. The

The pothole crisis is costing £14.4 billion a year in economic damage in England alone
April 29, 2024

First ever full economic analysis of the impact of potholes in the UK evaluates the full cost in damage, accidents (especially to cyclists), time wasted and higher emissions. Anyone who drives or cycles will be aware that Britain’s pothole crisis is serious. Having completed the most recent ‘Peking to Paris’ car rally from Beijing to

Unpaid household services would nearly double GDP if captured, painting a rosier picture for growth during the pandemic
April 21, 2024

Unpaid household services, which are not captured in normal economic statistics, are estimated to have been worth £1.9 trillion in the UK in 2021, according to a lesser-covered ONS dataset released last week. This compares with official GDP of £2.2 trillion.  The dataset, released every five years, covers the period 2017 to 2021, although there

Renters continue to bear the brunt of the cost-of-living crisis, facing additional housing costs of £2,000 per year
April 15, 2024

Recent figures point to a slightly rosier landscape for the UK consumer. Inflation is on a downward trajectory, while earnings growth remains historically elevated, supporting real-terms improvements in spending power. However, the aggregate figures obscure significant variations in trends amongst demographics, with certain groups continuing to bear the brunt of the cost-of-living crisis. Private renters

Easter week to mark a turning point in consumer prospects, with spending set to eclipse £11.4 billion, up 5.7% on last Easter, despite the weather
March 30, 2024

Easter weekend typically stands out as a highlight for retailers, as shoppers are enticed to venture out and make the most of the long bank holiday weekend. Despite challenging economic conditions amid the cost-of-living crisis, British consumers appear confident about opening their wallets once again as Easter week ushers in a resurgence in spending. Cebr

Remote working artificially boosts London’s economy by £8 billion, at the expense of the East and South East
March 24, 2024

Amongst the plentiful economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, arguably the most significant has been the acceleration in the adoption of remote working. In addition to changing the structure of the labour market, this has had implications for the regional distribution of economic activity. This has been of particular detriment to London, shifting output away from

The Chancellor’s approach to boosting growth in the Budget was short-sighted. The next government should provide the long-term policy certainty businesses need to invest
March 18, 2024

The headlines from the recent Spring Budget were rightly dominated by the 2p decrease in National Insurance Contributions, given it will make a notable difference in workers’ take-home pay, even if obscured by other tax changes. There were other commendable announcements, too, notably changes to child benefit charge thresholds and a focus on improving public

UK economy to receive £8.6 billion boost from this week’s leap year day, increasing growth by 0.3 percentage points
February 29, 2024

Cebr analysis published last week considered the effect of the leap year day on earnings. In this short follow-up note, we present our estimates of the GDP impact. Though higher frequency economic statistics are seasonally- and calendar-adjusted, meaning the impact of extra working days is largely smoothed out, there is no adjustment for leap days

Non-salaried workers to earn an extra £530 million due to next week’s leap year day
February 26, 2024

Thanks to Pope Gregory XIII’s overhaul of the shoddy Julian calendar in 1582, 2024 is a leap year. Relative to 2023, England will see three extra working days this year: one for the leap year day of February 29th, one due to the lack of a coronation, meaning fewer public holidays, and one less weekend day. This

Assessments of the labour market remain subject to uncertainty, but this should not deter the Bank of England from cutting rates
February 19, 2024

In October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) unexpectedly pulled the plug on the publication of some of its flagship labour market statistics, covering metrics such as unemployment, employment, and economic inactivity. Citing issues with sample sizes and the broader methodology behind the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the statistics were deemed to be unreliable. The figures

UK house prices still falling, but the outlook for 2024 is changing course
February 12, 2024

The UK housing market has faced a period of significant headwinds, with elevated mortgage rates, a sluggish economy, and a cost-of-living crisis all contributing towards a gloomy picture. Indeed, the most recent official data released by the Land Registry are particularly notable, demonstrating that average UK house prices fell by 2.1% on an annual basis in

Cebr raises its forecasts for corporate insolvencies in 2024 from 28,000 to 33,000
February 5, 2024

In September last year, Cebr predicted that we would see 7,000 companies going insolvent each quarter in the UK in 2024 [1]. When the data came out for Q4 2023 about a week ago it was clear that we had reached that level already, with 6,788 insolvencies in England and Wales, 314 in Scotland and 81

With an expected recession in the rear-view mirror, the UK’s prospects for 2024 have improved
January 29, 2024

The UK economy has battled sluggish growth for years. Though shocks such as the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis take a large share of the blame, questions remain regarding the country’s economic fundamentals. Still, signs are emerging that the economy has already hit the depths of the current economic cycle and is, therefore, now on the path

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