Our great city works well because we Londoners muddle through together without too much friction. “Live and let live”’ has a claim to be the defining London motto.
But there have been times where that harmony has shattered. I remember the shock of Tottenham and Croydon burning in August 2011 and of shops being boarded up all over London in 1981 as Brixton erupted. At those times London suddenly felt vulnerable, and society fractured.
Many of the causes of similar civil unrest are developing again. The right actions now can reduce the chance of reaching boiling point in London.
Academics agree that the most common causes of civil unrest are economic hardship (especially rises in food and fuel prices) plus a sense of social or political injustice.
Economic hardship is with us and getting worse. Food inflation has been at 9.8 per cent in recent months, energy prices have risen and have been predicted by consultancy Cornwall Insight to hit £4,266 a year by January 2023, a rise of 230 per cent.
There is a growing sense of social injustice driven by an inactive government too distracted by a leadership campaign to focus on alleviating hardship coupled with a growing gap between rich and poor. The Centre for Economics and Business Research reported this week that the “highest earners now enjoy annual pay growth of 10 per cent, while lowest earners see just a 1 per cent rise”.
This is fuelling civil disobedience campaigns like the “Don’t Pay UK” group who are encouraging mass refusal to pay their energy bills. Inexorably, it seems, the conditions for civil unrest are emerging.
Mass violent protest would be a calamity for London and would compound existing issues. Economically, major unrest leads to a drop in GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund. Specifically, large-scale unrest leads to a collapse of confidence and economic activity.