The British and the French like to think of themselves as belonging to two very different countries, both culturally and economically. Looking at the data, this seems to hold some true across some key variables. For example, the French public sector plays a substantially larger role in the domestic economy compared to the UK. This
Central bank policymakers are once again finding themselves in a balancing act as they head into the September round of rate setting meetings, hoping to bring inflation down to the 2% target while minimising damage to the economy. Rising oil prices mean that their job has got considerably more difficult. For most of the year,
It’s interesting that no one official in China talks about when the Chinese economy will be bigger than that of the US. Their immediate objective is that China becomes a high income economy (defined by the World Bank’s metrics) by 2025. Having been remarkably successful at reducing (on their own figures they claim to have
We are expecting a major inventory cycle in worldwide manufacturing over the next two years, hitting already fragile manufacturing sectors in global economies. Even in normal times, the shape of the current economic cycle would lead to a knock-on inventory cycle, but high interest rates will amplify its shape in 2024 and 2025. This will
Cebr’s last World Economic League Table (WELT) published in December 2022 suggested that China leapfrogging the US to become the world’s largest economy measured in dollar terms might be delayed to 2036 from the 2028 date previously forecast. The next version of WELT to be published this coming December will update this forecast but we
Compared to the gloomy forecasts at the nadir of the energy crisis last winter, recent months have seen widespread upward revisions to growth forecasts, particularly for the UK, which now looks set to avoid recession in the first half of 2023. The Eurozone, too, has fared less badly than predicted albeit growth remains anaemic and
China’s economic reopening will provide a limited boost to world growth this year and is unlikely to lead to a surge in global energy price inflation, a think tank has said. The Centre for Economics and Business Research estimates that China’s shift towards domestically generated consumer growth means there will be far more limited “spillover”
There is no doubt that the immediate economic picture for the UK is challenging and is likely to get worse before it will get better. Research shows SMBs will be instrumental to economic recovery in the UK. There is no doubt that the immediate economic picture for the UK is challenging and is likely to
Will the UK economy swerve recession in 2023? If you’ve paid any attention to the news over the last few weeks, the answer would seem to be a resounding no. Yet the latest forecast from the respected National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIES) think tank is for mild growth in every quarter next year, and
Less than 20 per cent of people and businesses who can upgrade to Ultrafast Full Fibre across Newport have done so – with thousands still missing out on faster, more reliable broadband services. Following a £9.3 million pound local investment, Openreach engineers have been busy building the network to make ultrafast speeds of up to one gigabit per second
Competitive manufacturing centres are needed to ensure the cost of low-carbon technologies continues its precipitous fall over the past decade. If the energy story of the first two decades of this century was China, that of the period to 2050 will be India. Over the next two decades, the South Asian giant will see more
Small misjudgments can have real-world impacts – including the Chancellor’s decisions on tax and spending They call it the “dismal science” for good reason. The supposed oracles of economic forecasting have been forced to eat humble pie on more than one occasion. Christine Lagarde famously asked if she had to apologise “on my knees” to
Tens of thousands of teachers march in London Prime Minister Sunak condemns strike Government says big pay rises will fuel inflation Schools shut, most trains not running LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) – Up to half a million British teachers, civil servants, and train drivers walked out over pay in the largest coordinated strike action for
Modelling by the Centre for Economics and Business Research shows the direct cost of the single day’s action will be £94m, with a further estimated £100m hit to hospitality sectors as footfall vanishes Britain will be plunged into an effective “mini lockdown” on Wednesday as half a million workers go on strike and millions of
The IMF’s latest forecast for the UK shows that, after the fastest growth in the G7 for two consecutive years, the UK is expected to show the slowest growth in 2023 and indeed be the only G7 economy with negative annual growth. Remainer Twitter, having ignored the UK’s rapid growth of the two previous years, is all a flutter