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May 29, 2019

We visit the Tiananmen Square, the Forbidden City and the Summer Palace and see the preparations for the 70th anniversary of the revolution

I have a reputation in my family for being the last to arrive or to get up and for keeping everyone else waiting so I was quite amused that when Ianthe phoned Mike and Rowena this morning they were still asleep. They did well to appear fully clothed and looking smart within 15 minutes.

 

Our excellent and feisty tour guide Joyce (whom I would highly recommend to anyone wanting guiding in Beijing – contact her through Catherine Lu Tours book@catherinelutours.com ) was waiting with a people carrier to take us to the Forbidden City though Beijing’s morning rush hour. The pace was about the same as the Marylebone Road at an equivalent time of day.

Figure 1 The half painted viewing stand for the 1 October 2019 parade to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the revolution. You can see where the crimson paint stops and the rest is still in its white undercoat. All in front of the Tienanmen Gate – pic taken from Tiananmen Square

We were kept waiting by a motorcade – there appears to be a state visit happening, though we did not recognise the flag (it turns out to be Niger). The highlight of the procession for petrolheads was two Hongqi L5s. These are cars that Westerners hardly ever see since they are mainly for the use of the very top leaders in China (and presumably their official guests). To read more see: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tychodefeijter/2016/05/26/meet-the-hongqi-l5-chinas-most-expensive-car/#294c0b8658c7

 

The central public areas of Beijing are being spruced up for 1 October 2019 when the 70th anniversary of the revolution is being celebrated.  And one senses that the country is building up for this. The local TV is full of programmes highlighting the achievements of the regime.

Figure 2 Outdoor screen in the garden of our hotel displaying TV picture of programme about the revolution

The Forbidden City has only not been forbidden since the 1920s and consists of over 600 imperial buildings. It was clearly designed to impress and succeeds. The number of visitors is huge as the queues indicate. But the place is also huge. From Tiananmen Square to the Imperial Gardens at the northern end of the Forbidden City we walked about 4 miles.


Figure 3   The entry queues for the Forbidden City outside the Meridian Gate

When the Forbidden City was built during the 15th Century, China’s GDP was about one and a half times that of all of Western Europe and China’s annual GDP per capita was about $600 in 1990 Geary Khamis dollars. To put this in perspective, at the time of the revolution in 1949 China’s GDP per capita on the same measure had fallen to $450. On this measure Chinese GDP per capita is roughly $15,000 today. One can see why the regime is so keen to emphasise how far the country has travelled since the revolution – they now have a fairly impressive story to tell in economic terms, though forty years ago before they changed economic policy, the story looked less good.

 

Walking round the streets in Beijing, there is little obvious poverty. And it does appear that the Chinese government has been hugely successful in its objective of reducing poverty. According to the UN, 70 per cent of the reduction in numbers of people in poverty in the world since 1990 has occurred in China.

 

Interestingly, the Chinese government, as part of its plan to improve the quality of growth, is increasingly focussing on poverty reduction in rural areas. The strategy has three elements: increase human capital through investments in health and education; improve infrastructure, particularly road and rail, and finally encourage economic development with strategies to increase tourism in the rural areas and attempts to develop the more backward Western part of the country, partly through the Belt and Road Initiative.

 

In 1860 the Brits and French (oddly on the same side) burned Beijing’s Summer Palace. When I explained this to fellow rally participants from the US over breakfast they pointed out that the Brits also burned the White House during the 19th century and the replastering and painting in white after this was what gave the building its modern name! So the 19th century Brits seemed to like burning palaces!

 

I missed the trip to the (rebuilt) Summer Palace yesterday afternoon but Ianthe, Rowena and Mike had a leisurely visit, walking around lakes and admiring the architecture. I rested with a slightly stretched back, not wanting to risk further damage before the rally and had a chance to read the local press and see some TV.

 

I get the impression that China is quite nervous at the moment. They clearly are worried by President Trump and the trade war. The local press is full of articles explaining why China can withstand the trade war, which suggests a degree of worry about whether this is really the case. There is also a degree of nervousness about the fact that growth slowed sharply last year, by much more than is admitted in the official figures. Although there are some signs of a recovery and there has been a massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, there are still doubts about how far this recovery will take hold.

 

Tomorrow will be another leisurely day while the others visit the Great Wall. So watch out for more reflections on the state of the Chinese economy!

 

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