The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) estimates that spending on new factories and equipment fell by 1.1% in the three months to the end of March — a fifth successive quarterly decline — and predicts further declines in the second quarter.

 

Economists are particularly concerned about a drop-off in investment because of Britain’s woeful recent record on productivity.

 

“As uncertainty persists, more and more foreign investors and businesses will be forced to take a decision either to accept the unknown results of the ongoing Brexit process, or take their money elsewhere,” said Kay Neufeld, managing economist at the CEBR. “It’s a very uncomfortable situation.”

 

The October deadline creates extra headaches. The hoarding frenzy has already placed a strain on the supply of warehouse space and driven up the cost of storage, particularly in southeast England. Would-be stockpilers will face even greater competition for space towards the end of the year as retailers — many of which have already pre-booked warehouses — stock up for the Christmas shopping season.

 

Large businesses are typically able to swallow these extra costs. However, smaller manufacturers operating on thin margins could struggle, said Seamus Nevin, chief economist at the trade body Make UK.

 

Early last month, Make UK wrote to the prime minister urging her to revoke article 50 if she could not strike a deal before the then deadline of April 12 — a plea that fell on deaf ears. Nevin thinks a further six-month delay could be the difference between life and death for some firms.

 

Many smaller businesses, such as those in the supply chains of leading car manufacturers, say their customers have demanded they continue to hold extra stock. These pressures have been prolonged during a period when the global economy is weakening and some companies are seeing order books shrivel.

 

“The extension is better than crashing out without a deal, but it doesn’t actually solve anything,” Nevin said. “But things haven’t just gone back to normal. The delay means small firms being squeezed and potentially put to the wall.”

 

For Raja, there are no such concerns. Tying up £40,000 in stock has hurt her company’s cashflow, but business continues to boom — thanks in part to the contract with the NHS. She insists there will be no more hoarding by Nim’s Fruit Crisps later in the year.

 

“There’s no point planning when they just keep kicking the can down the road,” she said. “We might end up never leaving the EU. It’s impossible to predict the outcome.”

 

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