Passport processing delays could cost £1.1billion in cancelled trips this summer, experts warn.
There is only a 50% probability of a “successful and timely” passport renewal process for travellers, the Centre for Economics and Business Research found.
The think-tank used VisitBritain figures to come to its estimate.
There have been warnings of delays in processing applications as demand soars after the pandemic.
The Passport Office is advising travellers to apply at least 10 weeks in advance. It comes after the number of valid UK passports fell by 2.6 million over two years from 2019 as people delayed applications.
Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told the Commons last week two constituents’ honeymoon is at risk “even though they applied in plenty of time”.
Home Office minister Kevin Foster said the Government is “confident” it will not need to extend the 10-week target.
It comes after MPs last week blasted the “shambles” and said one woman had been waiting since January ahead of a holiday next week.
The rules are also more complicated because since Brexit, Brits can no longer travel to the EU on a passport that’s about to expire.
Under Schengen area rules, your passport must be less than 10 years old on the day you enter, and valid for at least three months after the day you plan to leave.
The three-month rule does not apply to Ireland but does apply to some non-EU countries too – Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Monaco, San Marino or Vatican City.