世界経済が景気後退（リセッション）の危機にさらされている。ロシアのウクライナ侵攻などに伴う資源高をきっかけに、日米欧それぞれで経済の歯車が狂いはじめたためだ。リセッションを食い止めることはできるのか。世界経済はどこに向かうのか。各国経済の専門家に危機の原因と、今後の見通しを聞いた。
米は家計部門の余力がカギ 窪谷浩・ニッセイ基礎研究所主任研究員
米国は今、6月の消費者物価指数が40年半ぶりに前年同月比9・1％増となるなど歴史的な物価上昇（インフレ）に見舞われている。米国の中央銀行にあたる連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）が経済の過熱を抑えようと政策金利を相当速いペースで引き上げている。FRBは経済を犠牲にしてでもインフレ抑制を優先する姿勢だ。金融政策を引き締め過ぎた結果、景気後退に入る懸念が高まっている。
Mainichi Simbun – Global Recession Crisis
The global economy is threatened by recession. This is because the economic wheels of Japan, the US and Europe have begun to go out of gear, triggered by high resource prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other factors. Can the recession be halted? Where is the global economy headed? We asked economic experts from each country about the causes of the crisis and their outlook for the future.
The key for the US is the spare capacity of the household sector.
The US is currently experiencing a historic rise in prices (inflation), with the consumer price index rising 9.1% year-on-year in June for the first time in 40 and a half years. The Federal Reserve (FRB), the US central bank, is raising policy rates at a considerably faster pace in an attempt to keep the economy from overheating. The Fed is prioritising inflation control at the expense of the economy. There are growing concerns that the economy is entering a recession as a result of too tight a monetary policy.
Kay Neufeld, Head of Forecasting and Analysis sector, Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR), UK think tank.
According to the latest statistics from Eurostat, the statistical institute of the European Union (EU), the economic growth rate for the period April-June 2012 was plus 0.7%, which was higher than most had expected. This is due to the continuing positive effects of the economic resumption from the new coronavirus disaster, mainly supported by Spain, Italy and France, where the service sector, including tourism, is performing well. However, Germany, the largest economy in the region, is already experiencing zero growth and the overall eurozone economy is expected to slow down in the coming years.
The biggest downside is the decline in natural gas supplies from Russia, on which Europe has depended for 40% of its imports. There are growing concerns that Russia will stop supplying completely in the coming months, ahead of the demand season in winter. The consumer price index in the Eurozone reached plus 8.9% in July, and could rise further. Soaring energy prices mean that households have less money available for consumption, which will cause the economy to recede.
Russia has been shaking up European countries by reducing the supply of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline linking it to Germany. But the impact is not limited to countries directly connected by pipelines. The impact will spread across Europe through price hikes.