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Daily Mail – One in three office workers want to continue working from home after coronavirus threat is over, survey reveals
July 20, 2020

The study showed a demand for more flexible working, up from a tenth in 2019 The survey found 32% of people expecting to at least partially work from home It comes as Boris Johnson on Friday urged Brits back to deserted High Streets   One in three office workers want to continue working from home

Evening Standard – Saving Central London: One in four could work from home for good
July 20, 2020

View the full article here.   The number of London workers operating from home will double to 25 per cent over the next five years, with huge long-term implications for the capital’s economy, according to new analysis today.   It comes after the Standard yesterday revealed how the absence of commuters has already had a devastating impact

The Loungewear Economy – lockdown experience to push 10.7 million Brits at least partly into the world of remote working – nearly a third of London workers likely to be working from home on any one day
July 20, 2020

Probably the most important change caused by the coronavirus pandemic for many households is the increase in working at home. While the national lockdown compelled thousands of businesses to suspend their operations altogether – temporarily and in some unfortunate cases permanently – many more have adapted to the restrictions by expanding their remote working capabilities.

As many as 70,000 e-scooter trips to work could be made in London each day. Could this be an ingredient in bringing dynamism back to the Central London economy?
July 13, 2020

Last week it became legal to use an e-scooter on UK public roads – provided it is rented from one of the Government-approved schemes that are to be trialled by local councils over the next 12 months. The announcement has been greeted with enthusiasm. The first UK scheme is expected to be up and running

The Times – Hongkongers could offer £40bn boost to UK economy
July 6, 2020

View the full article here.   The high productivity of Hong Kong citizens and the tendency of migrants to work hard as they establish themselves would add to Britain’s wealth if the government’s special immigration pathway were used, the Centre for Economic and Business Research has said.   The consultancy estimated that mass migration of Hongkongers to

UK GDP could be boosted by £12-40 billion from migration of skilled Hong Kongers
July 6, 2020

The Foreign Secretary has developed proposals for a bespoke immigration route for the 2.8 million Hong Kong people who currently have the status of being British Nationals (Overseas) and their dependants. They will be granted five years leave to remain in the UK, with the right to work or study; after these five years, they will be able

The Express – Britons set to spend eye-watering amount as pubs reopen following lockdown
June 29, 2020

BRITONS are expected to spend £210million at pubs this weekend following the coronavirus lockdown.   After three months since the lockdown was imposed on March 23, people across the country will be able to visit bars and pubs again on July 4. But some landlords will remain closed due to staffing costs and thanks to off-sales

The Times – Rush to bar likely when pubs reopen their doors
June 29, 2020

A third of adults are planning a trip to the pub when they reopen at the weekend in a much-needed boost for landlords, new research predicts.   Takings in English pubs are set to reach £210 million over the July 4 weekend, about 72 per cent higher than the average weekend turnover, according to the Centre for Economics

Spending in pubs to reach £210 million during opening weekend, though longer-term industry profitability set to be down by more than 75%
June 29, 2020

Three-and-a-half months since their enforced closure, the great British pub is set to return next weekend. Tastes for alcohol have certainly not subsided during the lockdown, with alcohol stores being one of only two retail channels to see an uptick in sales volumes since the start of the crisis. Nevertheless, the long-awaited call of draught

Article in The Spectator by Douglas McWilliams
June 22, 2020

View the full article here.   Fact check: are Britain’s wealthiest really paying just 20 per cent tax?   Since the turn of the century the share of income tax paid by the 1 per cent with the highest incomes has risen from 21 per cent to 30 per cent. Despite this, some academics claim that the

There are increasing risks of war and famine, to add to that of pestilence
June 22, 2020

Having already suffered pestilence, do we need to look out for the other three apocalyptic horsemen from the Book of Revelations: war, famine and death*?   In the past month, there have been some signs. China and India are facing off in the Himalayas, never a good sign when both parties are nuclear-equipped. Cyberwarfare has

Full Fibre turbocharging the UK
June 19, 2020

The UK’s fibre future is within reach. Together we can create a more connected, productive and competitive economy. We can help ease the ever-increasing demand on our public services and we can transform the way people are able to live and work.   Research by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) has shown that

Get Britain Back to Work
June 12, 2020

The below is an amended version of an article published in the Daily Mail on 10 June.   The economy has started to recover from the depths that it plumbed last month. But it looks likely that, after a bounce as lockdown ends, we may then be stuck for a while at around 85-90pc of

Article by Douglas McWilliams for the Daily Mail – Targeted tax cuts, a boost for tech and 50 years to pay off our corona debt… one expert’s view on how to get Britain back to work
June 11, 2020

By DOUG MCWILLIAMS FOR THE DAILY MAIL View the full article here   The economy has started to recover from the depths that it plumbed during the lockdown.   But according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Britain still faces the deepest recession in the developed world this year.   And it looks likely

The Telegraph – Full fibre broadband could create 1.2 million jobs
June 8, 2020

Installing full fibre broadband across the UK could create 1.2m skilled jobs by 2025 while allowing a quarter of workers to be based at home, according to a new report.   Full fibre broadband, which has endured a notoriously slow rollout across the UK, still only covers only 12pc of British homes. It can deliver

The Times – UK house prices 2020: how has coronavirus affected the housing market so far?
June 8, 2020

The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) said on April 14 that property prices would fall 13% by the end of 2020. On April 20 Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, launched the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme.   This week the CEBR revised its forecast to a fall of 8.7% this year. Kay Neufeld, head of

Using Digital to revive the UK – Full Fibre Broadband and the growth of the Digital Economy could create an additional 1.2 million skilled jobs by 2025
June 7, 2020

FORECASTING EYE SPECIAL The UK economy is certainly starting to revive from its coronavirus caused crash and will continue to do so as lockdown diminishes. How far the recovery will go in the short term will depend on a series of factors – whether an effective Covid 19 vaccine will emerge from one of the

The Times – Confidence improves but consumers still fearful about personal finances
June 4, 2020

Household confidence is stabilising but consumers are still highly pessimistic about their personal finances, a closely watched survey shows.   The gradual easing of the lockdown lifted confidence by three points to 95.8 in May, according to an index published by YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research. However, the index is still

Would a short term reduction in productivity be a good idea?
June 1, 2020

Normally one of the key economic goals is higher productivity. Indeed, one of the UK’s major economics weaknesses has been the stagnation of productivity since the financial crisis. There are measurement issues and part of the slowdown in productivity growth may have been driven by structural changes such as the rise of the lifestyle economy and

Independent – How an extra bank holiday could help revive the economy
May 26, 2020

View the full article here.    The CEBR thinks sectors such as retail, catering and hospitality could benefit by as much as half a billion pounds from extra spending while any lost productivity could be made back in as little as a month, James Moore writes   Bank holidays are often accompanied by grim analyses of their cost

The Times – October bank holiday would raise £500m for worst-hit businesses
May 26, 2020

View the full article here.   An extra bank holiday in October this year could give the parts of the economy hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic a £500 million boost without any financially harmful side-effects, research suggests.   The Centre for Economics and Business Research said that the hospitality, tourism and retail sectors would

An October Bank Holiday may even boost the economy but does that mean we should move to a 4 day week?
May 25, 2020

Eight years ago we published some estimates on ‘the cost of a bank holiday’ which have been repeatedly quoted ever since. Even at the time we pointed out that Britain’s number of bank holidays, at eight, was low by international standards and that there was little case for reducing the total number though we could

Report by Cebr Founder Douglas McWilliams published in Reaction Life
May 22, 2020

The published report can be found here.  When the pandemic comes to an end, the Chancellor’s problems may be just beginning   A couple of years ago I highlighted the role of the ‘lifestyle economy’ where people were increasingly becoming musicians (up 80% since 2004), artists (up 121%), fitness instructors (up 144%) or moving into

The Economist – London may have gone into a covid-accelerated decline
May 22, 2020

The shift could reverse three decades of ascendancy.   Before it was blown off course by covid-19, Boris Johnson’s government had big plans to reshape the economic geography of Britain. Poor parts of the Midlands and north of England would get lots of infrastructure investment, helping them to close the productivity gap with London. The country

Cebr awarded 1st place in the Forex forecasting category of this year’s Focus Economics Analyst Forecasting Awards
May 21, 2020

We’re pleased to announce that Cebr has been awarded 1st place in the Forex forecasting category of this year’s Focus Economics Analyst Forecasting Awards.   It’s the second year running that Cebr has won one of the awards which recognise the most accurate economic forecasters for the key macroeconomic indicators in 89 countries and for

Improving the Economic Modelling of Trade Agreements
May 20, 2020

Authors: Shanker Singham, CEO – Competere, Douglas McWilliams, Deputy Chairman – Cebr and Cristian Niculescu-Marcu, Director of Economic Analysis – Cebr   The Trade Bill setting out many of the key elements of the UK’s future trade policy post Brexit starts its second reading in the House of Commons this week. Meanwhile the government has

1 in 10 retailers facing imminent collapse as economic damage accumulates
May 19, 2020

Anticipated business recovery time increases to 28 weeks, suggesting the longer lockdown persists, the longer it will take to rebuild Despite this, more than two-fifths of businesses (41%) report a positive outlook for next 12 months, offering a glimmer of hope for economy   One in ten businesses in the wholesale and retail sector (9%)

Britain’s booming lifestyle jobs – a nation of artists, musicians and writers? We now have nearly half a million earning their living from the arts…
May 18, 2020

Nearly half a million people in the UK now earn enough of a living as artists, musicians or writers to cite it as their main occupation. No doubt, many more work at these occupations in their spare time as well.   The ONS has now made more consistent the NOMIS data on activity by occupation and

UK ‘Isolation Economy’ snapshot: £12.9bn annual rise in core “at home spending” says Legal & General
May 12, 2020

Spending on “Isolation Economy” categories of groceries, alcohol, entertainment and hobbies & crafts running at £247 million per week during lockdown, equivalent to an annual £12.9bn increase. However, average overall consumer spending has decreased by 31% per person, equating to an annual fall of £215bn. Local economies could be relative long-term gainers as a result

The Times – Lockdown households spend £104 a week on food and home comforts
May 12, 2020

Adults in lockdown Britain are spending almost £250 million a week extra on food, alcohol, entertainment and indoor hobbies, research has found.   Consumers are spending an average of £104 per week on food and isolation pursuits, a 5 per cent increase compared with before the lockdown came into force, according to the study by Legal &

City A.M. – Coronavirus lockdown: 1m firms warn of collapse if restrictions continue for three months
May 11, 2020

More than 1m businesses have warned that they could not survive another three months of the coronavirus lockdown, after the prime minister last night announced some changes to the restrictions.   More than 250,000 businesses said they will not be able to survive if trading conditions remain as they are for another month, according to

The Telegraph – 250,000 UK businesses face collapse, survey warns
May 11, 2020

The Opinium-Cebr Business Distress Tracker is foreshadowing this dire outcome if coronavirus trading conditions continue for another month   More than a quarter of a million businesses will be unable to survive if trading conditions continue for another month, a new survey has found.   The Opinium-Cebr Business Distress Tracker which surveys 500 businesses across the

Coronavirus emergency pushes more than half a million UK businesses to the brink of insolvency
May 6, 2020

Notes to editors:   – The Opinium-Cebr Business Distress Tracker checks the pulse of the UK business community on a fortnightly basis, as firms across the country grapple with the unprecedented challenges brought about by the coronavirus crisis. The Tracker is based on a survey of 500 business across the country, representing a broad range

The Times – Consumer confidence crashes to all-time low
May 5, 2020

Consumer confidence plummeted to its lowest level on record last month amid warnings of a sharp drop in economic growth and rising unemployment.   Households are losing faith in the economy’s ability to withstand the coronavirus pandemic and the vast majority expect the country to fall into recession this year, according to a poll by YouGov

The UK lockdown IS coming to an end gradually. And now we need to reboot the economy
April 27, 2020

As I write I can see 15 builders working. Last week on the same two sites there were only 5. Traffic data also confirms that where they can, people seem to be choosing to go back to work. It will be odd if a politician with as much sensitivity to the public mood as Boris

£23 billion in excess savings set to accumulate in Q2, as consumer spending declines dramatically
April 24, 2020

UK retail rales, March 2020 and UK savings and expenditure forecast for Q2 2020 24th April 2020 New research conducted by Cebr has shown that the coronavirus crisis is causing household savings to rise at a rapid pace. If the reductions in spending persist for the entirety of the second quarter, Cebr expects excess household savings

Economist Douglas McWilliams: Getting Out of the Hole
April 21, 2020

The need to distance ourselves from each other socially and at work because of the Covid 19 virus has shattered our economies which are now suffering their worst hits since the 1930s. While it is true that online shopping and working from home have cushioned the shutdown, my colleagues at Cebr have estimated that the

China Daily – Does China have the financial firepower to lift the world out of a global recession?
April 21, 2020

In the decade after the global financial crisis the China economy generated a quarter of global GDP but whether it can do the same this time is open to question.   China cut its benchmark lending rate by 0.2 to 3.85 percent as well as announcing 1 trillion yuan ($141.3 billion) of debt financing measures

The Guardian – British households face disposable income fall of £515 per month
April 20, 2020

“UK consumers could take £43bn hit as coronavirus crisis ravages UK economy   British households will have £43bn less cash available for essential spending between April and June, as the UK slides into its deepest recession in decades.   Disposable income earned by UK households, once it has been adjusted for tax and benefits, will

The Mirror – Families on average £515 a month worse off because of coronavirus pandemic
April 20, 2020

“Meanwhile, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) claims an average family is £515 a month worse off because of coronavirus.   A report by the body says wage cuts have slashed nearly a fifth off the typical household’s income, while millions of self-employed face an agonising wait for Government cash.   The combined

UK households will see a £43 billion fall in cash available for essential spending in Q2
April 20, 2020

Coronavirus is hitting households hard. Through redundancies, income cuts and reductions in working hours, businesses are trying to reduce wage costs in order to preserve their cash flow, causing significant damage to the labour market.   Cebr has estimated the total impact that households will see on their disposable incomes (i.e. income adjusted for taxes

The Telegraph – House prices set to slump £30,000 in frozen market
April 14, 2020

Prices expected to tumble by 13pc as incomes fall and transactions dry up, economists warn   More than £30,000 will be wiped off the average value of a UK home by the coronavirus crisis as the property market is brought to a standstill and incomes fall, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has warned.  

The coronavirus crisis is about to spill over into the UK’s housing market – but not all regions will be hit equally hard
April 14, 2020

The lockdown that has been put in place to hold back the coronavirus until a medical means of stopping it can be found constitutes a major economic shock. Deliberately shutting down much of the economy has caused a huge reduction in the demand for goods and services as households isolate themselves at home and only

City A.M. – Cebr: UK output has plunged 30 per cent amid coronavirus
April 6, 2020

“UK economic output has fallen by roughly 30 per cent, according to new research, but some sectors such as manufacturing are much worse off than other areas like insurance and finance.   As coronavirus containment measures cause businesses across the country to close and demand to slump, the UK economy has slowed dramatically. Economists have

The Sun – Coronavirus lockdown is costing the British economy £2.4BILLION a day, says alarming report
April 6, 2020

“Economic modelling by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) found the economic shutdown is leading to a fall in economic output of 31 per cent.   It analysed the value of goods and services that are not currently being produced in each sector — finding that manufacturing, hospitality and construction sectors are losing the most.

The Telegraph – Coronavirus lockdown costing the economy £2.4 billion every day, study warns
April 6, 2020

“Young people and women are more likely working in industries that have been shut down to combat the spread of coronavirus   The coronavirus lockdown is costing the economy £2.4 billion every day, a new survey by the Centre for Economics and Business Research has revealed.   The study found that the UK’s economic output

As the UK remains in lockdown, Government may need to target more support at manufacturing sector
April 6, 2020

Estimates of daily economic impact of the UK’s lockdown by sector – April 2020   As the UK remains locked down this has extremely severe economic consequences. Our modelling suggests that as restrictions currently stand, the lockdown is leading to a reduction in economic output of 31%[1]. However, this figure varies between sectors across the

The Sunday Times – Despatches from an economy at two-thirds of normal
April 5, 2020

View the full article here.   “It is a big and difficult question. How much of the economy is being shut down by the lockdown? Is very little happening, as it can easily seem, or is there quite a lot of activity alongside the social distancing and a huge increase in the number of people

Douglas McWilliams and Mikael Pawlo on the Corona crisis
April 3, 2020

Douglas McWilliams talks to Mikael Pawlo about the possible financial impact of the Corona crisis. Also discussions about McWilliams’ books The Flat White Economy, The Inequality Paradox and Driving the Silk Road. Concept discussed are helicopter money, super-babies, hyper-inflation and good capitalist ambassadors. Best episode ever of you ask our producer Farid Abbaspour. But then

The Times – Urgent talks to save next Edinburgh festivals
April 3, 2020

The UK and Scottish governments are locked in talks with council officials and senior Edinburgh festival staff to secure the future of the events after their cancellation for this year.   The negotiations are designed to secure the “cultural bedrock” of the city and agree more financial support for all five main festival organisations. They

Cebr makes an explanatory video for The Times on the differences between a recession and a depression, and how economies can recover from these states
March 31, 2020

Cebr has been asked by The Times to provide an explanatory video in which Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams answers the following three questions  –   1) What is a recession? 2) What are the differences between a recession and a depression? 3) What will the impact of coronavirus be on the economy and how

How will our economy bounce back from the Corona Virus? A blog by Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams
March 31, 2020

The full blog post can be found here.   Corona Virus and the associated shutdowns have shattered the world economy. According to my colleagues at Cebr, it looks as though this year we will see a fall in world GDP of 4% or more, the biggest fall in peacetime world economy growth since the 5% drop

City A.M. – Coronavirus sets UK on course for deepest recession since 2008
March 30, 2020

The UK is set for the deepest recession since the 2008 financial crisis as the coronavirus pandemic ravages the economy.   The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts the UK economy will shrink marginally in the first quarter year, by 0.5 per cent, before contracting a staggering 15 per cent in the second

The Guardian – Coronavirus forecast to cut UK economic output by 15%
March 30, 2020

Analysts say unemployment could also double in deepest recession since financial crisis   The coronavirus pandemic could cause UK economic output to plunge by an unprecedented 15% in the second quarter of the year and unemployment to more than double, according to dire forecasts.   The deepest recession since the financial crisis is now all but unavoidable,

The Times – Consumer confidence index shows fears of economic depression
March 30, 2020

Households expect Britain to fall into recession this year, with some even predicting a more severe depression, as parts of the economy remain grounded.   Concerns about economic growth, rising unemployment and impending business failures have knocked consumer confidence to its weakest level since 2013, according to an index published by YouGov and the Centre

UK GDP expected to contract by 15% in Q2 as consumers under lockdown rein in spending
March 30, 2020

Cebr UK Prospects March 2020 – Covid-19 update.   This is a Press Release describing Cebr’s updated forecasts for the UK economy.   The UK economy is about to enter the deepest recession since the financial crisis, including the steepest quarter-on-quarter decline in economic activity since comparable records began. We expect the economy to have

A world recession is now almost a certainty, with global GDP set to decline twice as much as during the financial crisis. The challenge now is to prevent the recession from turning into a 1930s style rout.
March 22, 2020

Cebr Global Prospects Highlights March 2020 Cebr’s Global Prospects report can be downloaded in full via this link. We have severely downgraded our forecasts for virtually all economies covered. Given that only very little hard data is available showing the impact of the virus on world economies, the forecasts largely reflect our estimates of the

Worst Economic Crisis since 1930s
March 19, 2020

Douglas McWilliams warns that this will be the worst economic crisis since the 1930s   To see Cebr founder Douglas McWilliams’ commentary for the BBC’s business breakfast,  Please tune in here    at 3 minutes into the program In particular he has made key points: 1) We will definitely be in recession – the only

Cebr is still open for business
March 19, 2020

We hope all our clients and associates are well, despite the unusual and difficult circumstances we are all facing at the moment.   We wish to reassure clients and everyone that Cebr remains very much open.   In line with UK Government advice, almost all of us are working from home, with only a skeleton

The US travel ban will further add to the impact of coronavirus on the international travel industry – which is likely to be about four times as large as that of September 11
March 13, 2020

Forecasting Eye    After the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 Cebr was commissioned by the air travel trade association ABTA to analyse the impact on the travel industry. Our prediction at the time of a negative impact of about 8% on the volume of world travel in the following year has proven consistent with

Budget Special 2020
March 11, 2020

Our best guess is that growth this year will be zero plus or minus a lot. If that is right, our back of the envelope calculations say the Budget means a deficit of £90 billion, which seems about right. But if things turn out to be significantly worse, a temporary VAT cut will be necessary.

Make money easily available for companies with cash flow problems but make it convertible to equity at a penal rate if they can’t pay back in 18 months
March 10, 2020

Cebr analysis of the impact on world and UK Economy from the 2020 COVID 19 outbreak   Cebr’s Forecasting Eye from 31 January was amongst the first to warn that Coronavirus could cause a world recession this year. With equity values worldwide down a fifth from their peak and oil prices roughly halved (see chart)

A Coronavirus lockdown in London could cost the UK half a billion pounds per day
March 2, 2020

If the UK is to see a significant increase in coronavirus cases over the next few days or weeks, one of the more likely channels is through travel from Italy. This is due to the rapid recent increase in cases in the country – as of February 27th eleven towns have been quarantined [1] and

Exports passing through Heathrow make up 40% of UK goods exports – New Report
February 27, 2020

New research has found that Heathrow is the UK’s biggest port with over double the trade value of the UK’s second-largest port by value, Southampton. In 2019, the total value of trade passing through Heathrow to and from destinations outside the EU and Switzerland was £140.9 billion, up from £109.5 billion in 2018. UK exports passing

City A.M. – Tourism body calls on government to rethink immigration policy
February 25, 2020

A trade body representing the UK’s travel and tourism industry has called on the government to rethink its new immigration policy or risk “undermining the business model of many UK companies”.   ABTA, the Travel Association, has today released a paper demonstrating the importance of non-UK workers to the UK travel industry which outlines the

The Times – Care crisis laid bare: 10 years to save the system
February 24, 2020

A damning report shows pension savings and council funding are set to fall woefully short   The death of final salary pensions, a shortage of council funding and nursing home fees of nearly £55,000 a year could cause the care system to collapse in a decade, a report has found. Analysis by the think tank

Against a background of supply side shocks, there IS a case for increasing borrowing. But only if it buys something really worthwhile….
February 24, 2020

Against a background of supply side shocks, there IS a case for increasing borrowing. But only if it buys something really worthwhile….​   On Tuesday it was confirmed that the next budget will be delivered on 11 March. Following the decisive election victory of the Conservative Party in the December general election and the resignation

The Telegraph – Government funding could reduce the number of potholes by 25 per cent
February 20, 2020

Road users could be forced to contend with more than 650,000 potholes across the country by 2030, new research has warned.   A study predicts that Britain will see a 16 per cent increase in fractured tarmac in 10 years’ time if the Government fails to invest a promised £500 million per year. In its manifesto

The Times – Monster film studio planned for Reading
February 19, 2020

An American film studio involved in blockbusters including Jumanji: The Next Level, Godzilla and Venom has unveiled plans to build a £150 million complex in Reading, creating about 1,500 jobs.   Blackhall Studios, based in Atlanta, said that it had selected Britain for its first site outside the United States after calls from clients, who include Sony, Universal and

British retailers are set to have their hopes dashed this Valentine’s Day with spending set to grow less than 1%, but casting a wider net may prove an attractive proposition
February 14, 2020

For British retailers, 2019 was a difficult year as UK consumers shunned the high street and various well-known traders entered into administration. The three months to December saw retail sales decline 1% compared to the previous three-month period, bringing a disappointing end to a difficult year.[1] In the New Year retailers have sought to empty

The Independent – Economically our film industry is a star but will it still shine under Boris Johnson?
February 10, 2020

This morning’s Oscar coverage will perhaps inevitably be dominated by how “our” team got on at the climax to what’s been an impressive awards season.   The economic performance of the UK industry is, however, the real star.   For the second time in three weeks I’m indebted to the Centre for Economics & Business’s

The UK film industry has trebled in size since 2012, but we’re not going to the cinema more often. Why – and is this sustainable?
February 10, 2020

Forecasting Eye    This Sunday, the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood is hosting the 92nd Academy Awards. The night is expected to be the culmination of an already excellent awards season for the UK’s thriving film industry.   The film expected to enjoy the most success is the British war epic 1917. Having already won seven

Yorkshire Post – Social care providers in Yorkshire are having to make cuts due to financial pressures
February 6, 2020

HfT’s research was carried out by economic consultancy Cebr.   The charity is now calling on the Department for Health and Social Care to bring forward “long overdue” proposals on reforms for the long-term future funding of adult social care.   Josie Dent, from Cebr, said: “Pressure on social care providers to cut costs while

The number of social care providers who say they have been forced to cut support for vulnerable adults has doubled in the last 12 months as a direct result of financial pressures, according to a newly published report.
February 4, 2020

According to independent research commissioned by Hft, a national charity supporting adults with learning disabilities, one in five organisations reported offering care to fewer individuals as a means of balancing the books (a rise of 12 percent from 2018), with 95% citing rising wage bills as the main drain on resources.   A third of

The Guardian – Fears of global economic slowdown as virus follows trade war
February 3, 2020

China, and the world, were already burdened by tariffs. Now, some say the coronavirus could undermine fragile growth   In 2002, Sars spread virtually unchecked to 37 countries, causing global panic, infecting more than 8,000 people and killing about 750. The coronavirus is spreading at a faster rate.   The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) says that

The Telegraph – Renminbi trading hits record levels in the City of London
February 3, 2020

Almost 3 trillion renminbi was cleared in the UK between September and November last year   The City of London has retained its crown as the world’s leading hub for renminbi clearing outside China, new figures show.   Trades totalling nearly 3 trillion renminbi were cleared in the City between September and November last year, up

The Times – US economy grew by 2.1% in last quarter, below Trump target
January 31, 2020

President Trump missed his ambitious growth target for the American economy by a wide margin last year, a report has confirmed.   Gross domestic product rose by 2.1 per cent annualised in the fourth quarter, the commerce department said in its first of three estimates. This meant the economy grew 2.3 per cent in 2019,

Coronavirus is currently spreading six times faster than SARS. Unless a cure is found, this could push a fragile world economic recovery into reverse
January 31, 2020

I should have been flying to Beijing on 16 February. This now seems unlikely.   But my problems are minor compared with those of many others. Google, GM and Starbucks are among the companies that have shut down their entire China operations in response to coronavirus which has spread rapidly from Wuhan, where it was first

Teachers want more computers for students
January 29, 2020

The number one tech priority for UK teachers is more computers for students in a CEBR report surveying 2,000 teachers and commissioned by Lenovo.   Lenovo has commissioned a report from CEBR, Technology in UK Schools, detailing insights into the use of technology in UK schools in 2020, examining the types of technology that have

London Post – London’s micro businesses “punching above their weight”
January 27, 2020

London’s micro businesses are a force to be reckoned with, a new report commissioned by London Councils from the Centre for Economic and Business Research (Cebr) shows.   London has over 1 million businesses in total, but this research has shone a light on the more than half a million businesses across the capital that

Green taxes have their drawbacks but are likely to become more important…
January 27, 2020

It is tempting to view anything emerging from Davos with suspicion. My normal reaction when I hear that a corporate executive has attended the conference is to sell the shares in his or her company because it normally means that the executives are more concerned with their personal position and with virtue signalling than with running

Evening Standard – Cutting bank’s base rate won’t help the economy
January 22, 2020

It appears the Monetary Policy Committee is considering cutting the Bank of England’s base rate from its current low level of 0.75 per cent. It’s hard to see what savings might be discouraged by this or who might be encouraged to borrow extra.   Any economic effects must depend on reducing the exchange rate or

An interest rate cut probably won’t work. But if it does it is likely to make an early 2020s recession even deeper
January 20, 2020

Forecasting Eye    Speeches and interviews by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members Michael Saunders, Jonathan Haskel and Gertjan Vlieghe plus the CPI for December coming in at 1.3%, some distance below expectations, have raised the probability of a 25 basis point cut in the Bank of England base rate at the next MPC meeting on 31

Prospect – Growth in 2020: a less volatile but still lacklustre year lies ahead
January 16, 2020

Johnson will have to get lucky to avoid a weak UK performance   What is the outlook for the UK economy? Last year proved difficult for forecasters. Not the overall year, which was correctly anticipated by most as likely to be a pretty poor one, but the volatility—month-to-month and quarter-on-quarter.   That was the year of

BBC News – Scotland’s seas take centre stage
January 15, 2020

The start of 2020 saw the introduction of a lowered permitted standard for sulphur emissions from shipping. For many, that has been an expensive adaptation. The industry will come under continued pressure to improve its performance on climate changing pollution.   That helps explain why the UK Chamber of Shipping marked the turn of the

Exceptionally high discounting in January set to boost retail sales
January 13, 2020

Forecasting Eye    Following disappointing pre-Christmas sales results, Cebr expects retailers to discount to an unprecedented extent in January boosting Q1 sales. The most recent ONS sales figures report that retail sales for the three months up to November (not including Black Friday) increased by 2.6% year-on-year. Cebr estimates that retail sales for Q4 will

A recession is coming, but probably not in 2020. We will all become trade experts. Taiwanese and Israeli elections set to return current leaders. Tech and Finance may prove the toughest issues for Brexit. Could England win a major final at Wembley? Cebr’s Top Ten for 2020
January 1, 2020

Marking our own report card,we reckon we were 100% correct in our political and economic predictions last year (copy of last year’s predictions available here for anyone who wants to check our marking). But looking back we don’t feel too pleased with our performance becausewe chickened out with a ‘don’t know’ on what was by far

The Times – India set to be world’s fourth-biggest economy
December 30, 2019

India is on track to overtake Germany as the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2026, dumping all leading European economies out of the top flight as Asia continues its remarkable rise.   The forecast from the Centre for Economic and Business Research in its World Economic League table 2020 underscores the change in the world’s power

Business Today – India may overtake Germany to become fourth-largest economy by 2026: CEBR report
December 30, 2019

India, Germany and Japan would continue to battle for the position of third-largest economy over the next 15 years, the CEBR report stated   India is expected to become the fourth largest economy by 2026 and the third largest by 2034, according to a report by UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). The

World Economic League Table 2020
December 26, 2019

A world economic league table with forecasts for 193 countries to 2034

The election’s over, now the hard work starts…
December 16, 2019

Under PM Boris Johnson, the Conservatives have won a large majority in the general election held last Thursday. It may sound harsh to say so but winning the election is the easy part. Views in the Cebr office have differed but I had always expected that the Conservatives could win a popular vote on the twin

Forbes – The Economic Risk Of A Very Left Wing Labour
December 11, 2019

Thursday, December 12 2019 will be an election day in the U.K. that has echoes of 1979. That year was marked by Margaret Thatcher coming to power in May.   Her Conservative government swept into power to reverse the militancy of the trade unions whose frequent strike action led to rubbish bags piled up in

The Telegraph – Labour’s plans to seize 10pc of firms will cause £67bn hit to UK economy, analysis shows
December 11, 2019

Stark warnings of a £67bn hit from Labour’s plans to seize 10pc of UK firms have raised the stakes for Thursday’s general election after alarming official figures revealed the economy grinding to a halt.   Analysis of Labour’s Inclusive Ownership Fund for The Telegraph by the Centre for Economics and Business Research shows overall economic

Ten things you find out if you drive from Beijing to Paris…
December 9, 2019

Forecasting Eye    We will be holding the launch party for my book ‘Driving the Silk Road – Halfway Round the World in a Bentley S1’ next week and actual publication day is 23 December, just in time for Christmas. The book is published by whitefox*.   As we get close to Christmas it is

The Times – Consumer confidence rises despite election doubts
December 3, 2019

Consumer confidence rose last month as households shrugged off uncertainty about the impending general election, a poll has suggested.   People are growing increasingly confident about job security and believe that the value of their homes will rise over the next year, according to YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research.   The poll found that

Retailers hoping to see final quarter revenue boost from Black Friday will be disappointed
December 2, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Christmas period sales have risen in line with retail sales values for the rest of the year since Black Friday started to become popular in the UK. However, spending is now concentrated in Black Friday week and the week before Christmas, with a £160 million shift from the weeks surrounding Black Friday

Tory party manifesto is released late Sunday PM. Can be afforded in the short term but in the long term someone will have to pay…..
November 25, 2019

We produced our comments on the Lib Dem and Labour manifestos over the weekend. Our line was that they were unaffordable. But the Lib Dems, with some squeezing and rescheduling, could probably be afforded in the short term if not in the long term. The Labour manifesto was another thing – if they won sterling

No party’s manifesto can be afforded, but Labour’s could lead to a run on the £
November 25, 2019

Forecasting Eye    The Lib Dems and Labour have produced their manifesto launches in the last week. The Tories seem to be delaying theirs until late in the campaign, presumably in response to the difficulties that followed the release of their manifesto in the 2017 election.   The background to the parties’ promises is that

Cebr welcomes delegation of the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission
November 21, 2019

Cebr was delighted to welcome the National Development and Reform Comission, led by Liu Xilong, Director of the Division of Coal Management of the Bureau of Economic Operations Adjustment.   Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams, Chief Executive Nina Skero, Head of Energy Mike McWilliams and Head of Macroeconomics Kay Neufeld presented an overview of the

The global manufacturing recession
November 18, 2019

Forecasting Eye   Just over a year ago, Cebr wrote about the risk of a global recession rising to one in three for the 2019-20 period. Looking back at the topics that worried us most back then, we see that some of our predictions have come true while others haven’t materialised (yet).   We were certainly

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