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An extraordinarily complacent Spring Statement as the world economy deteriorates – business will need to batten down the hatches

March 13, 2019

The Spring Statement has been delivered the lunchtime after the Prime Minister’s Brexit Withdrawal Bill had been defeated by 149 votes. With the future of the UK’s trading links uncertain, the Spring Statement delivered today has had a provisional air with a range of commitments contingent on Brexit developments. This is understandable.   But what is less understandable is the Treasury's and the OBR’s complacency about economic developments. Since last…

China Daily Cover Story

March 11, 2019

US, China, Brexit… it’s all about international trade. But we have to oil the wheels at home too – domestic and export markets should not be seen as separate

March 11, 2019

Trade wars, trade deals, free trade. Everyone is talking about it. Trade experts now warn of trade distortions. New technologies may help, but a new Cebr study reveals other things may also need fixing behind the border.   Despite blunt statements from global leaders, the substance of what is being debated mostly concerns the process through which international trade is managed rather than the principle of free trade itself. This…

Łódź and the Flat White Economy

March 4, 2019

For those who don't know the term, 'Flat White Economy' is an extension of the tech economy; it is the ecosystem that surrounds the IT industry in its broadest sense - from the baristas that make flat-white coffees that drive the IT workers through to the co-working spaces that host a myriad start-ups and the financial muscle - the business angels, venture capitalists and private-equity funds - that makes it…

Highly skilled dual-income couples have the potential to reduce regional inequality, but they require better-connected cities

March 4, 2019

In the UK and other advanced economies growing numbers of households contain two highly-skilled individuals, each with a successful career in a demanding and highly specialised role. This phenomenon is driven by: Increased female workforce participation: even in the last couple of decades this has increased significantly. Between 1996 and 2018 the employment rate went from 66.1% to 69.7% for working-age women without dependent children and from 61.9% to 74.0%…

The Guardian – Premier League race ‘worth hundreds of millions’ to home city

February 25, 2019

Manchester could net £220m and Liverpool £133m thanks to football fans’ spending – report   Taking part in the Premier League title race can be worth hundreds of millions of pounds to a football club’s home city, according to a report that said Manchester City and Liverpool are squaring up for a £300m battle.   The report by the thinktank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said competing for a league title could…

Finishing the Premier League in a top position boosts a city’s economic growth by 1.1 percentage points, worth £220 million to Manchester or £133 million to Liverpool

February 25, 2019

Forecasting Eye    With each Premier League match being watched by thousands of fans in the stadium, and millions more on television, the nine months of the year when the top 20 English football clubs compete for glory have a significant economic impact on local communities. While fans support from all over the world, many are clustered within or near the city that each club calls home, meaning that success of…

While sick leave rates are falling, mental health problems are rising and likely to cost employers and employees £100 billion this year.

February 18, 2019

Forecasting Eye   Many of us will be familiar with the ‘Monday Blues’ – a reluctance to go back to work after the weekend. While tempting, most people won’t call in sick but will actually appear at work. Indeed, the latest ONS figures from 2017 show sickness absence is at its lowest rate on record. This is good news for both employees and the economy.   However, there is an…

The Guardian – Low pay is biggest barrier to finding and keeping care staff, survey finds

February 12, 2019

Charity’s research published as government launches national campaign to fill 110,000 social care vacancies   Four in five employers in the social care sector admit that low pay is the biggest obstacle to filling the sector’s 110,000 vacancies, a survey has found, as ministers launch a national recruitment campaign for care workers.   The survey also shows a huge rise in the proportion of employers citing the bill for calling in agency staff…

The World Bank already thinks it is easier to do business in Russia than France. This is what Russia needs to do to overtake French GDP….

February 11, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Cebr’s latest World Economic League Table released in December had Russian GDP effectively stagnating in real dollar terms, rising only from $1,540 billion in 2018 to $1,630 in 2033. By contrast, Korea’s GDP, which starts from about the same level, is forecast to rise by 55% over this period compared with Russia’s 6%. Korea is forecast to enter the world’s economic top ten while Russia falls from…