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City A.M. – Cebr: UK output has plunged 30 per cent amid coronavirus

April 6, 2020

"UK economic output has fallen by roughly 30 per cent, according to new research, but some sectors such as manufacturing are much worse off than other areas like insurance and finance.   As coronavirus containment measures cause businesses across the country to close and demand to slump, the UK economy has slowed dramatically. Economists have struggled to put figures on the slowdown, however.   The Centre for Economics and Business…

The Sun – Coronavirus lockdown is costing the British economy £2.4BILLION a day, says alarming report

April 6, 2020

"Economic modelling by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) found the economic shutdown is leading to a fall in economic output of 31 per cent.   It analysed the value of goods and services that are not currently being produced in each sector — finding that manufacturing, hospitality and construction sectors are losing the most.   The fall in output from the manufacturing sector is estimated to be costing the…

The Telegraph – Coronavirus lockdown costing the economy £2.4 billion every day, study warns

April 6, 2020

"Young people and women are more likely working in industries that have been shut down to combat the spread of coronavirus   The coronavirus lockdown is costing the economy £2.4 billion every day, a new survey by the Centre for Economics and Business Research has revealed.   The study found that the UK’s economic output has fallen by 31.3 per cent since the Government introduced draconian social-distancing measures last month.…

As the UK remains in lockdown, Government may need to target more support at manufacturing sector

April 6, 2020

Estimates of daily economic impact of the UK’s lockdown by sector - April 2020   As the UK remains locked down this has extremely severe economic consequences. Our modelling suggests that as restrictions currently stand, the lockdown is leading to a reduction in economic output of 31%[1]. However, this figure varies between sectors across the economy. The manufacturing sector is set to see the highest fall in output in absolute…

The Sunday Times – Despatches from an economy at two-thirds of normal

April 5, 2020

View the full article here.   "It is a big and difficult question. How much of the economy is being shut down by the lockdown? Is very little happening, as it can easily seem, or is there quite a lot of activity alongside the social distancing and a huge increase in the number of people working from home? How much below normal are we?   Also, just as importantly, is…

Douglas McWilliams and Mikael Pawlo on the Corona crisis

April 3, 2020

Douglas McWilliams talks to Mikael Pawlo about the possible financial impact of the Corona crisis. Also discussions about McWilliams’ books The Flat White Economy, The Inequality Paradox and Driving the Silk Road. Concept discussed are helicopter money, super-babies, hyper-inflation and good capitalist ambassadors. Best episode ever of you ask our producer Farid Abbaspour. But then again, he says so every time.   https://open.spotify.com/episode/3XbZb3tP2s7mL2rTwxEpDT?autoplay=1&auto_play=true&t=0

The Times – Urgent talks to save next Edinburgh festivals

April 3, 2020

The UK and Scottish governments are locked in talks with council officials and senior Edinburgh festival staff to secure the future of the events after their cancellation for this year.   The negotiations are designed to secure the “cultural bedrock” of the city and agree more financial support for all five main festival organisations. They have forfeited millions of pounds in ticket revenue and fees because of the Covid-19 pandemic.…

Cebr makes an explanatory video for The Times on the differences between a recession and a depression, and how economies can recover from these states

March 31, 2020

Cebr has been asked by The Times to provide an explanatory video in which Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams answers the following three questions  -   1) What is a recession? 2) What are the differences between a recession and a depression? 3) What will the impact of coronavirus be on the economy and how can we recover from the damage it causes?     [video width="480" height="848" mp4="https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/video-1585672261.mp4"][/video]

How will our economy bounce back from the Corona Virus? A blog by Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams

March 31, 2020

The full blog post can be found here.   Corona Virus and the associated shutdowns have shattered the world economy. According to my colleagues at Cebr, it looks as though this year we will see a fall in world GDP of 4% or more, the biggest fall in peacetime world economy growth since the 5% drop in 1931.   And it may get worse. In the 1930s GDP fell by around…

City A.M. – Coronavirus sets UK on course for deepest recession since 2008

March 30, 2020

The UK is set for the deepest recession since the 2008 financial crisis as the coronavirus pandemic ravages the economy.   The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts the UK economy will shrink marginally in the first quarter year, by 0.5 per cent, before contracting a staggering 15 per cent in the second quarter.   The assumption is that restrictions on businesses and the wider population will be…