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Evening Standard – Returns are the unknown quantity in online shopping

November 12, 2019

The new warehouses in contrast were sited near towns so that van drivers could access them and take advantage of the “extra mile” of delivery. As a result modern warehouses near big markets have become essential to Amazon, Target and others.   They have also become one of the darlings of the stock market, in contrast to most real estate, which is going through the doldrums, even with Brexit stockpiling.…

Independent – Nudging employers to do better on equality doesn’t work – they need a shove instead

November 12, 2019

A leading economist says the productivity gap will close with legislation to help women achieve their potential. But what about Bame and disabled workers, asks James Moore.   One reason why Britain has a skills and productivity gap is that it’s failing to make the best use of its workforce’s potential.   Take female workers. Vicky Pryce, the former head of the government’s economic service, argues that the UK is sacrificing productivity, prosperity and growth through women not working…

Could the unleashing of women’s true economic potential be the answer to solving our productivity puzzle

November 11, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Our present short term focused market system does not lead to proper allocation of resources because it doesn't price externalities properly with little account taken of long term impact of actions. This is of course changing as concern over environmental issues such as climate change is increasing but prices and actions are adjusting too slowly and will continue to move slowly unless there is concerted international government…

The Times – Are we facing another Winter of Discontent?

November 10, 2019

Strike threats and Labour poll pledges have summoned the spectre of 1979   The South Western strike has greater potential for causing problems. It will cut off one of the main arteries into the capital for much of December. Added to engineering work planned at Paddington, King’s Cross and on the Eurostar route, there will be days next month when London is almost inaccessible by rail.   However, experts say…

City A.M. – UK public spending set to hit 1970s levels after election, think tank says

November 4, 2019

Douglas McWilliams, deputy chairman of research institute Cebr, said: “Unusually, it appears that the choices made in the coming election will have an impact on the shape of the economy.”   He predicted a Conservative win would lead to “a stronger service sector”, and said if Labour were the biggest party there would be “a stronger public sector”.     View the full article here.

Unusually, this election will make a difference to the shape of the economy

November 4, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Finally, after months of resisting, Parliament gave in last week and permitted the Prime Minister Boris Johnson to hold an election on 12 December. We sketch out below the likely consequences of different results for the UK economy.   It may surprise some that despite a Conservative lead in the opinion polls that has remained stubbornly between 10 and 15% for the last few weeks, the bookmakers…

The Times – Black Friday bonanza cannot hide the gloom being felt on high street

October 30, 2019

"For retailers, this is a hand-to-mouth existence. Average shop prices for non-food stores are falling at an annual rate of 1.5 per cent, according to the BRC-Nielsen survey. Their task is to squeeze out extra volumes in a weak pricing environment. It is also to do so against a backdrop of weak consumer confidence, reflected in a flat housing market and, as Bank of England figures show, a reduced appetite…

The Times – Treasury’s silence over Brexit says loud and clear that it is powerless

October 29, 2019

"Before looking into the reason that this is a strategic mistake, let us first dismiss a political red herring: that lawmakers do not have the evidence needed to make an informed decision. The impact can easily be estimated from the previous government’s analysis and from excellent impact assessments provided by independent researchers at UK in a Changing Europe and the Centre for Economics and Business Research. It would be safe…

Cebr Economic Analysis of the Brexit Deal agreed at the European Council on 17 October 2019

October 18, 2019

CEBR FORECASTING EYE SPECIAL    Summary   Cebr has performed a quick analysis of the likely economic impact of the Brexit deal agreed at the European Council on 17 October 2019.   Obviously this study has been produced at speed and relies heavily on past work. In particular it is based on a study by Cebr for the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) in March 2018 prepared by…