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The Belt and Road initiative. Fewer kilometres than the Roman road network but more infrastructure of other kinds. And built ten times more quickly….

May 20, 2019

Forecasting Eye    At 11 am Beijing time on Monday 27 May Cebr will hold a press conference in Beijing to launch its report on the economic impact of the Belt and Road initiative. The report will be produced with Global Construction Perspectives and is sponsored by the Chartered Institute of Building.   One of the elements of the report is a comparison with one of the first extensive systems…

City A.M – Eurozone core rate revised up as inflation hits estimates

May 17, 2019

Consumer prices in the bloc rose 1.7 per cent higher year-on-year from 1.4 per cent in March, according to EU statistics agency Eurostat.   The closely-watched core indicator, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose to 1.4 per cent in April, beating previous estimates of 1.3 per cent.   The highest contribution to the annual inflation rate came from services, which rose 0.86 percentage points (pp), followed by energy…

Evening Standard – Immigration curbs will sour thriving Flat White economy

May 14, 2019

The British Business Bank does not always get the high profile it deserves. Its annual report showed it had supported 27,000 businesses and had £2.1 billion of funding deployed since 2012 when it was set up by Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat minister in the coalition government, to foster small and middle-sized businesses. In start-ups, in growth companies and among those looking for long-term capital, it is making a material…

Spanish unemployment has started to rise sharply. Is the star of the European economy losing its shine?

May 13, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Four of us from the Cebr team were in Spain for different reasons last week. I had the great good fortune to be invited to speak at the Power 50 conference on e-gaming in the wonderful Puente Romano resort in Marbella on behalf of BDO. The others were paying their own way and therefore experiencing different sectors of the visitor economy….   Most analysts were shocked by the…

Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams speaks to the Power 50 Gaming Conference in Marbella

May 7, 2019

Douglas's speech took place at the Puente Romano Resort and looked at the world economy and regulatory environment for gaming and gambling.    

The Times – We can’t just go on hoarding like this for Brexit

May 7, 2019

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) estimates that spending on new factories and equipment fell by 1.1% in the three months to the end of March — a fifth successive quarterly decline — and predicts further declines in the second quarter.   Economists are particularly concerned about a drop-off in investment because of Britain’s woeful recent record on productivity.   “As uncertainty persists, more and more foreign investors…

The average Dutch person works a 29 hour week. We could too, if we increased hourly productivity, reduced housing costs and reformed the public sector.

May 6, 2019

Forecasting Eye    It’s interesting that there doesn’t seem to be much of a rush hour in Amsterdam on a Friday morning as I discovered arriving there off the Harwich ferry last week.   Many of the Dutch don’t seem to work Fridays. According to Dutch law you are allowed to work a maximum of 9 hours a day and 45 hours a week. However, a person is only allowed…

The Times – Scotch whisky puts spirit into economy

April 30, 2019

The gin renaissance may be a long way from fizzling out, but the spirit is unlikely to match the economic contribution of Scotch whisky any time soon.   Record exports and the opening of new distilleries have increased the contribution of the Scotch whisky industry to Britain’s economy by 10 per cent since 2016 to £5.5 billion.   According to the Scotch Whisky Economic Impact Report, the direct impact of Scotch…

BBC News – Scotch whisky ‘more productive’ than energy sector

April 30, 2019

The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) has released figures suggesting whisky workers are worth more to the economy than those in the energy sector.   It calculated that each employee in the whisky industry generates £210,505 of activity.   The equivalent for the energy industry was said to be £173,511.   The research, based on work by the Centre for Economic and Business Research, found whisky to be worth a total…

Asian exports to China are down by up to 15%, but economic stimulus could yet delay a more severe slowdown

April 29, 2019

Forecasting Eye    When it comes to the reliability of official Chinese statistics, it is not a secret that it is politics that guides the data and not – as one might expect – the other way around. The usefulness of official statistics has been discussed for years now as they are likely to mask considerable cyclical variation. Some provinces and cities have even admitted to manipulating statistical figures in…