Browse Releases

Clear

The second wave and Brexit difficulties have derailed both the EU’s and the UK’s economy – without a deal it might be 2024 before we get back to 2019 levels of GDP

October 16, 2020

It seems mad that a Brexit deal could be at risk over an industry as small as fishing that contributes less than £1 billion to UK GDP and not much more to French GDP. Which is why it is not surprising that Mr Barnier has committed himself to further talks in London ‘over the weekend if necessary’. We don’t know at time of writing whether his offer will be rejected but…

The Times – Jobs support scheme ‘will not halt rising unemployment’

October 12, 2020

Fears are growing of a surge in unemployment before Christmas as the recovery in the economy falters under pressure from a second wave of Covid-19.   The Institute of Public Policy Research and the Centre for Economics and Business Research, two leading think tanks, have warned that the chancellor’s job support schemes will do little to prevent a rise in redundancies this winter.   Their warnings come amid darkening prospects for small…

Cebr raises Christmas unemployment forecast as the Opinium/Cebr Business Distress Tracker points to 1.5 million additional unemployed

October 12, 2020

On Wednesday, Parliament square was filled with 400 musicians, playing parts of Holst’s ‘Mars’, a thunderous and foreboding composition. The performance was part of a musical protest to raise awareness of the hardship that freelance musicians face amid the coronavirus pandemic. They have been hit particularly hard by the virus, which makes live music events almost an impossibility, threatening the livelihoods of venues, musicians and other people working in the…

The Chancellor has till mid-2021 to convince the markets that he has a policy to get the deficit under control but a messy Brexit could limit his fiscal options

October 5, 2020

The Chancellor has till mid-2021 to convince the markets that he has a policy to get the deficit under control but a messy Brexit could limit his fiscal options   There is clearly a debate going on in Whitehall about the appropriate size for the UK budget deficit. The Treasury line seems to be that it is now time to start bringing it back under control. Others (including to some…

Evening Standard – Premier League clubs’ trade deficit predicted to hit £698m as spending continues despite Covid-19 pandemic

October 1, 2020

Premier League clubs are continuing to dwarf European sides when it comes to spending in the transfer market, despite the financial impact of Covid-19.   That is according to a new report conducted by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) and commissioned by Football Index, which investigated the effect of the coronavirus outbreak on the transfer market. The 2019/20 season saw a record spend from Europe’s five major leagues at £5.8billion, with…

Excluding restaurants from the 10pm hospitality curfew would decrease the economic hit of the policy by £3.8bn, while still achieving the desired epidemiological benefits

September 26, 2020

Earlier this week the government announced that, in an effort to suppress the infection rate, pubs, bars, cafes and restaurants across England will only be allowed to operate until 10pm. Explaining the reasoning behind the new measure, Boris Johnson noted that ‘the spread of the disease does tend to happen later at night after more alcohol has been consumed’, Dominic Raab similarly said that ‘as you go into the later…

Turnaround towns

September 25, 2020

Northern towns on track to turnaround half a decade of underperformance with signs of local town-led recovery as people work where they live Download the full report here   New analysis of proprietary Post Office data reveals that struggling towns in the north of England are experiencing strong growth following the first lockdown. Towns like Huddersfield and Wakefield outside Leeds, and Mansfield on the edge of Nottingham have had the…

City A.M. – Second local lockdown could cost London more than £2bn

September 21, 2020

London could face annual costs of more than £2bn if fresh curfew measures are implemented in the capital, according to a new report.   Leading think tank the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) today warned that 10pm curfews introduced elsewhere in the UK could reverse the country’s economic recovery if slapped on London venues.   It predicted that new lockdown restrictions would decimate a return to health for Britain’s pubs…

The Times – Economy faces losses of £250m a day during second wave

September 21, 2020

The economy faces a hit of £250 million a day from a second wave of Covid-19 infections if partial lockdowns reverse the increase in people going to pubs and restaurants and returning to work, according to a new report.   The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a think-tank, warned that GDP could fall by between 3 per cent and 5 per cent in the last three months of the year…

Will the second wave stop the economic revival in its tracks?

September 21, 2020

We’ve been consistently cautious about the recovery. A trampoline bounce in Q3 was built in and indeed looks to have happened, possibly more strongly than even the optimists had hoped. But whether this continues into Q4 and early 2021 was always in doubt. Tens of thousands of businesses are hanging on by a thread and likely to run out of cash, meaning that the risk of major job losses when…