- New expert analysis of detailed YouGov research data reveals resurgent economic optimism; pointing to continued acceleration of the UK economy
- Cebr predict 0.6% increase in GDP in Q2
YouGov/Cebr’s new Consumer Confidence Index – based on YouGov’s Household Economic Activity Tracker (HEAT) data – shows that the economic optimism of UK households has strengthened significantly since the start of the year after twelve months of stagnation and three years of fragility since the economy decelerated from its initial bounce back in 2009-10. The Consumer Confidence Index stood at 104.6 in the three months to July – its highest point since April 2010.
The surge since January 2013 follows a sustained period of improvement in households’ economic optimism with July’s ten point increase on the same period last year being the fastest annual growth rate seen since March 2012. It comes following 21 months of year-on year growth in YouGov/Cebr’s Consumer Confidence Index scores.
YouGov’s data show the resurgence is down to a number of factors, not least homeowners becoming increasingly optimistic about the value of their houses. House price expectations increased for the eleventh straight month and are at their highest level since June 2010 and are more than thirty points up on this time last year.
Additionally, workers have become increasingly less fearful about losing their jobs since the start of the year. During the three months to July 2013, a net balance of 41% of people thought it unlikely that they will be laid off over the next 12 months, up from a low of 38% in the three months to February 2013.
However, despite the improvement in consumer confidence, there are still areas of concern with consumers’ desire to save remaining strong. In the three months to July 2013, a majority (51%) of households would save a windfall payment rather than spend it. This number has been climbing slowly but steadily over the past four years and compares to 49% the year before and 45% in the three months to July 2009.
Cebr analysis of YouGov’s impressive vault of data as they compiled the results also reveals that the HEAT tracker indicated as far back as February that the mooted return to recession would not occur and economic conditions were strengthening in 2013, as has now become widely recognised. Moreover, the index has had a strong track record at capturing turning points in the economic environment, illustrating the recovery from deep recession in late 2009 and giving an early warning of the slowdown in 2010, which feed through to the real economy in 2011.
This is an extract from YouGov’s monthly Household Economic Activity Tracker. For more information, please visit YouGov’s website.