About two fifths of customers at Britain’s Asda supermarkets are buying less and swapping branded items for Asda-brand products where possible to save money amid a worsening cost of living crisis, the retail chain said on Friday (24 June). Britain’s households are struggling to keep pace with inflation which hit 9.1% in April, its highest
About two fifths of customers at Britain’s Asda supermarkets are buying less and swapping branded items for Asda-brand products where possible to save money amid a worsening cost of living crisis, the retail chain said on Friday. Britain’s households are struggling to keep pace with inflation which hit 9.1% in April, its highest in more
About two fifths of customers at Britain’s Asda supermarkets are buying less and swapping branded items for Asda-brand products where possible to save money amid a worsening cost of living crisis, the retail chain said on Friday. Britain’s households are struggling to keep pace with inflation which hit 9.1% in April, its highest in more
View this article here. LONDON: British supermarkets and suppliers warned Thursday of possible food shortages due to staff self-isolating, as rising coronavirus cases threaten chaos after the government controversially eased all restrictions earlier this week. With millions of workers and school children currently forced to stay home under COVID-19 tracing rules — in what has been
View this article here. London Heathrow, desperate to speed up the return of safe international travel, today flagged up a new report by the Centre for Economics & Business Research, which claims that aviation needs to be at the heart of the UK’s future economic growth. The new research highlights how the UK could undergo
Having made the case for the use of ‘Superports’ in last week’s Forecasting Eye, we turn our attention to another key part of trade infrastructure – airports. In particular, we will analyse the value of freight carried by air and the potential impact of free trade zones around the UK’s airports. The value of
Forecasting Eye Although much of the current focus on Britain’s EU withdrawal has been on the terms of exit, less attention has been paid to its likely impacts on the long term economic landscape. This note covers two important sets of impacts arising from the changes in Britain’s terms of trade with both the EU and
Superfast broadband roll-out could boost annual online sales by £740 million
World Economic League Table 2024 Download the full report here. Highlights We expect world GDP will continue to grow, albeit at a slower-than-average pace till 2025, as a result of the high interest rate policies adopted by central banks to bring down inflation. We estimate that GDP will amount to $104 trillion for 2023 as
The British and the French like to think of themselves as belonging to two very different countries, both culturally and economically. Looking at the data, this seems to hold some true across some key variables. For example, the French public sector plays a substantially larger role in the domestic economy compared to the UK. This
Cebr’s last World Economic League Table (WELT) published in December 2022 suggested that China leapfrogging the US to become the world’s largest economy measured in dollar terms might be delayed to 2036 from the 2028 date previously forecast. The next version of WELT to be published this coming December will update this forecast but we
The UK’s economic future is intrinsically linked to the continued and growing success of technology. It is the primary driver of progress across our cities and regions, shaping the way we produce, connect and innovate, giving everyone access to more and better goods and services, upon which our economy fundamentally depends. The world is experiencing
As the cost of living crisis drags on, almost a third of UK adults have dipped into their savings to make ends meet, collectively withdrawing more than £53 billion, writes Bethany Garner. In the 12 months to April 2023, 29% of UK adults say they used savings to keep up with living costs, according to a study commissioned
The British public is refusing to let typical bank holiday weather spoil its Coronation plans and is gearing up for street parties and family celebrations. Around £200m will be spent on food and drink this weekend, according to the Centre for Retail Research (CRR). Supermarket chain Lidl said it had sold enough bunting to line
Korea’s growth miracle: 1953 – present In the aftermath of the Korean War, South Korea was one of the poorest economies on the planet. The war caused mass casualties and displacement of people, while also devastating the country’s infrastructure. In 1953, South Korea’s GDP per capita was lower than those of Somalia and Haiti, which
UK inflation on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure stood at 10.4% in February 2023, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning. Inflation therefore increased from 10.1% in January, marking a divergence in the recent trend of deceleration seen in the prior three months. Consequently, February’s headline reading for annual inflation was higher than both
Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz declared almost a decade ago that 2014 “was the last year in which the United States could claim to be the world’s largest economic power.” It was, he claimed, the start of the “Chinese century”. He was wrong: the US remains the world’s largest economy. Yet experts keep predicting that
El Centro de Investigación Económica y Empresarial (CEBR, por sus siglas en inglés) pronostica que para 2023 la economía mundial deberá afrontar una recesión debido a que diversas economías se contraerán por las medidas implementadas para combatir la inflación. Durante 2022 la economía mundial superó los 100 billones de dólares, sin embargo, para el próximo año se estancaría a
India will become the third economic superpower by 2037 and a $10-trillion economy by 2035, Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a leading London-based consultancy, has said. Published on Monday, the report said the world is moving towards recession. However, over the next five years, the annual rate of India’s GDP growth is expected
A world economic league table with forecasts for 191 countries to 2037. The latest edition, WELT 2023, comes at a time of significant change in the world order and heightened global economic uncertainty. It is Cebr’s 14th annual world economic outlook report.
Ports for People is campaigning to end port and shipping pollution by encouraging more decisive action in the fight for environmental justice and climate survival, where ports are recognized as one of the key players on the decarbonisation path. Recently, the UK maritime sector has also called on the government to supercharge the delivery of energy network
Recently, the UK maritime sector has also called on the government to supercharge the delivery of energy network infrastructure to ports with new research and a transformational funding program. The call came as the sector’s trade associations, the British Ports Association and the UK Major Ports Group, released a summary of data produced by The
Most tech flotations are characterised by prioritisation of revenue growth over profitability and extravagant extrapolation. It is not surprising that investors’ hopes are often dashed and sometimes dramatically so. At time of writing the Nasdaq Technology Stock 100 Index is down 43% year to date and coincidentally by the same amount over the past year.
Households in the north have experienced a record drop in their spending, according to new research. The UK’s Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) found the spending power of the average family in Northern Ireland had contracted by 28.7 per cent in a year. The data, produced for Asda’s latest income tracker for the
Consumers are rushing to buy energy-saving products as average household discretionary income fell by £141 a month on last year, according to figures from Asda. The supermarket’s latest Income Tracker shows the average household was £35.44 a week worse off compared with last September, primarily due to soaring utility bills. The figure is an annual contraction of
People in Northern Ireland have been hit hard by energy price rises in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Around two-thirds use oil for home heating and prices have nearly doubled since last year. The UK government is offering all households £400 towards energy costs and an additional £100 to those households reliant on
Waking up in Britain these days often means waking up to bad news. This morning, it was that inflation has hit another forty-year high, with CPI reaching into the double figures for the first time at 10.1 percent, higher than the figure predicted by the Bank of England’s short-term inflation forecast. Since poorer households spend
By 2030 China will have overtaken the United States as the world’s largest economy — so says the Centre for Economics and Business Research. China has long been promoted by the funds industry as offering long-term growth opportunities, and early investors will have seen their faith heavily rewarded. An investment into the iShares China Large
The total amount of debt owed by over-55s is set to lift by 37% to £402bn over the next decade, as many retirees struggle with mortgage repayments, credit card debt and the rising cost of living, according to More2life. Most of this debt is held by younger retirees aged 55 to 64 “who are typically
Banff and Buchan MP David Duguid met Openreach engineers to check on the latest rollout of ultrafast, full fibre broadband in the region. He was given a tour of the work in Banff, along with an update on the Aberdeenshire build. It has now reached more than 23,000 properties, meaning full fibre is available to
Yesterday’s announcement by Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer, signals that the Government is waking up to the extreme challenges faced by many UK households as prices continue to soar. All in all, the May 2022 Cost of Living Support package represents a generous intervention, which will particularly help the most vulnerable households in keeping
Iceland recently announced that, starting from May 24, customers over the age of 60 would receive a 10% discount on their grocery shopping in the store every Tuesday. The move is motivated by the concerns older shoppers have experienced around the cost-of-living crisis – which has seen energy bills and food prices rise, among other things,
UK households’ disposable income has fallen by the most since 2008, according to grocer Asda Group Ltd., underlining the extent of the country’s cost-of-living crisis as the government steps up efforts to tackle it. Weekly household income to spend on non-essentials dropped by £40.38 ($50.77) on average in April from a year earlier, the biggest decline
Dame Joanna Lumley is calling on ministers to launch a parliamentary inquiry into medical research methods in the UK, warning that animal tests are “failing patients”. The actor, often dubbed a national treasure, is set to tell MPs that investment in “human-relevant” techniques would support economic growth and help the UK become a “science superpower”. In an address to
Such is that state of the UK consumer that even seemingly positive data can reveal bad news about the economy. After a week of grim reports showing inflation at a four-decade high and consumer confidence at the lowest level since at least 1974, a release on Friday showing retail sales unexpectedly rose in April appeared
Responding to the research from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) showing that confidence in household finances has hit an all-time low, consumer finance specialist Sarah Pennells at Royal London, said: “Our cost of living research shows that people are already cutting back their spending on food, fuel and energy bills, with
Three people born in Wales have won a Nobel prize. Two of them — Bertrand Russell (Literature in 1950) and Sir Clive Granger (Economics in 2003) — were educated entirely in England. Only one had their compulsory education in Wales. It was a physicist: Brian Josephson. Born in Cardiff in 1940, Josephson completed his school
According to new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the economy expanded by just 0.1 percent in February. This was down from 0.8 percent in January, and well below the 0.3 percent forecast by economists. Now, as prices soar, inflation skyrockets and wages stagnate, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is being urged to focus on domestic issues, rather
The UK economy grew by just 0.1% in February, despite a strong resurgence of both inbound and outbound tourism activity – including travel agencies, hotels, and tour operators. But growth has slowed sharply since January, when gross domestic product (GDP) jumped by 0.8% as people returned to normal life following a surge in Omicron rates in December
The Chancellor of the Exchequer will rake in an extra £50.5billion from wealth taxes – hitting tens of thousands of middle-class families. Rishi Sunak has been dubbed a ‘fiscal illusionist’ for claiming to make cuts when the tax burden has actually risen. But now, an investigation by The Mail on Sunday can reveal the amount
The Chancellor Rishi Sunak has been given what might have appeared to be the hottest of hot potatoes – he has to start the repairing of public finances after the damage done by the pandemic while handling the hit to household incomes, especially those of the poorest households, caused by the reaction to the Russian
Appearing at a pro-war rally last week, Putin, 69, wore a Loro Piana jacket worth £10,000 – over thirty times the average Russian’s monthly wage. This comes as experts predict that the global response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will set Russia’s economy back thirty years. The crisis will also hit the standard of living
Sanctions on Russia are already starting to worsen an acute cost of living crisis in the UK. Despite limited dependence on Russian imports, surging global prices are expected to erode living standards even further. The average UK household will experience a £2,553 drop in income this year, half of which is as a result of the invasion
The cost-of-living crisis afflicting UK families is, of course, as nothing to the suffering of the Ukrainian people at the hands of Vladimir Putin. And yet when prices rise to previously unimaginable levels, it has a severe impact on people’s lives. Recent days have seen the steepest weekly fuel price hike in 18 years. Petrol could soon
Robert Jenrick has warned that the UK could face ‘the most difficult economic year that we’ve seen in our lifetime’ amid the heavy sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The Tory MP described how the country could be looking at ‘an energy crisis unrivalled since the 1970s’ and said the government had to ‘level
Russia used to be tightly integrated into the global aviation industry — the invasion of Ukraine changed all that. Russian aviation will “most certainly shrink,” said Kay Neufeld, the head of forecasting at the Centre for Economics and Business Research in the U.K. Before the invasion, Aeroflot flew routes around the world, Russian holidaymakers took
It must have looked so simple for Vladimir Putin. Given his military superiority, a lightning strike by Russian forces would quickly overcome Ukrainian resistance and topple the regime in Kyiv. The Kremlin would have bargained for the invasion being met with sanctions, but assumed these would be a minor inconvenience given the divisions in the west. But even if
The prices of both Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate spiked this morning on the news that Russia had sent troops into two provinces of Ukraine, as did the wholesale price of gas. With Russia as an energy superpower, the energy market was always going to be the first to react to increased tensions with the
After such a frenetic year, I was quite surprised to read what we had predicted a year ago and realise that we had correctly forecast quite a lot of what happened. Our world economy GDP forecast was within 0.2% which is as close to spot on as you can reasonably expect. Our warning about inflation was
The UK will stay as one of the top six global economies for the next fifteen years, according to the latest annual report by the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR). In its world economic forecast, the consultancy firm said it expected the UK to achieve a trend rate of growth of 2.4 per
A typical family’s household costs are set to go up by £1,700 next year, according to analysis. The study said that higher fuel and energy prices were mainly responsible for the projected £33.60 per week increase in the cost of living. They would be compounded by a surge in supermarket bills that has not yet
A typical UK family will spend £1,700 more per year on household costs in 2022, according to a forecast for BBC Panorama. The analysis, conducted by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), projected the inflation rate would rise to 4.6% by Christmas. This rise is mainly due to higher fuel and energy prices.
View this article here. The last six months of consumer confidence index gains have been lost amid the fuel crisis and labour shortages, according to the latest analysis from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research. The pair’s consumer confidence index fell in September by 2.3 points to 110.5, a level last seen in April
View this article here. The maker of Quality Street has said it is ‘working hard’ to make sure the Christmasfavourite is on shelves before December 25 after also being hit by the ongoing supply chaincrisis which is threatening to detail the winter holiday for millions this year. Nestle, which also makers Lion bars, Aero and KitKat, admitted
View this article here. Foods from pasta to eggs and chipolatas to chopped tomatoes have risen in price at supermarkets since the pandemic began, as hard-up British families face spiralling costs of living amid the threat of rising inflation. Analysis by MailOnline of prices today compared to those in March 2020 found other goods that
View this article here. Britain’s winter of discontent looks to be getting worse as the price of wholesale gas surged by 20 per cent in a day to record levels yesterday – and is now 500 per cent higher than the start of 2021 – as it was revealed families face paying £1,700 more for
View this article here. British food producers, retailers and transport companies descended into panic mode over the weekend as a surge in workers being forced to self-isolate hits suppliers across the country. Workplaces have seen a rush of absences after 1.7 million people were “pinged” as of last week by a National Health Service app that tells
With Covid-19 cases exploding in recent weeks, so has the number of self-isolation ‘pings’ received by unsuspecting individuals via the NHS COVID-19 app, asking them to isolate for 10 days. This has led to a headache for business owners, many of whom are only now getting their operations back to normal after months of restrictions.
View this article here. New research has highlighted how the UK could undergo an economic pivot post-Brexit, with non-European Union (EU) trade potentially increasing by 20 per cent over the next five years, from nearly £473 billion in 2019 to £570 billion in 2025. According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, aviation will
View this article here. The UK’s Heathrow Airport has highlighted new research that suggests the UK could undergo an economic pivot post-Brexit, with non-EU trade potentially increasing by 20% over the next five years from nearly £473bn (US$653bn) in 2019 to £570bn (US$787bn) in 2025. According to the Centre for Economics & Business Research, aviation
View this article here. New research highlights how the UK could undergo an economic pivot post-Brexit, with non-EU trade potentially increasing by 20% over the next five years, from nearly £473 billion in 2019 to £570 billion in 2025. According to the Centre for Economics & Business Research (CEBR), aviation will need to be at
View this article here. New research highlights how the UK could undergo an economic pivot post-Brexit, with non-EU trade potentially increasing by 20 per cent over the next five years from nearly £473 billion in 2019 to £570 billion in 2025. According to the Centre for Economics & Business Research, aviation will need to be
View this article here. The UK economy is taking off strongly after the acute covid crisis . However, this rapid recovery in activity can generate major problems in the short and medium term. The islands’ greater isolation after Brexit and global supply problems threaten to bring back the economy from the shortages seen in the
View the full interview here – https://www.protectandconnect.co.uk/report Our research demonstrates that the proposed revisions to the Electronic Communications code will: cost small landowners an extra £50 million per year – on top of the £209 million per year the existing changes to the Code have already cost them slow down the UK’s 5G rollout, with up to 9 million people missing
Five years ago on 24 March 2016 the paperback edition of my book The Flat White Economy was published by Duckworth. The key point I made was that the tech enabled sector was at least as important to the UK economy as the tech production sector. My second point was that the critical factor driving
The Chancellor stood up this lunchtime with two major tasks: to ensure that the UK economy recovers post Covid and to bring public finances back under control. Despite the record-contraction in GDP in 2020, it was never going to be too difficult to get the economy to bounce back this year as long as vaccination
In Q3 2020, a record 16% expansion in GDP helped push productivity in the UK – as measured by output per hour worked – to the highest it has ever been. Much of this can be attributed to sectoral factors, with traditionally low productivity sectors such as hospitality accounting for a smaller share of the economic
My colleagues and I at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) are quite optimistic about the pace of the UK recovery once lockdown ends. The accumulated household savings at the end of 2020 had built up to £200 billion and will be more by the time we are let loose in a few
There are two reasons for expecting that the market structure in tech sectors will differ from the model of perfect competition with plentiful companies competing on price, quality and increasingly innovation. First is the economics of information. Once some research has been completed, the costs of replication are very low. So we get what I
View the full article here. China and the US have vied for economic superiority but the pandemic has “tipped the rivalry in China’s favour”. China is set to overtake the US to become the world’s biggest economy five years earlier than previously thought, thanks in part to its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to
This week Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman of Ogilvy, in a column in the Spectator, points out that the take up of tech is much more limited by the demand side than the supply side, which is true. He then suggests that he is one of the very few people to observe this, a more dubious
Probably the most important change caused by the coronavirus pandemic for many households is the increase in working at home. While the national lockdown compelled thousands of businesses to suspend their operations altogether – temporarily and in some unfortunate cases permanently – many more have adapted to the restrictions by expanding their remote working capabilities.
FORECASTING EYE SPECIAL The UK economy is certainly starting to revive from its coronavirus caused crash and will continue to do so as lockdown diminishes. How far the recovery will go in the short term will depend on a series of factors – whether an effective Covid 19 vaccine will emerge from one of the
As I write I can see 15 builders working. Last week on the same two sites there were only 5. Traffic data also confirms that where they can, people seem to be choosing to go back to work. It will be odd if a politician with as much sensitivity to the public mood as Boris
“UK consumers could take £43bn hit as coronavirus crisis ravages UK economy British households will have £43bn less cash available for essential spending between April and June, as the UK slides into its deepest recession in decades. Disposable income earned by UK households, once it has been adjusted for tax and benefits, will
Douglas McWilliams talks to Mikael Pawlo about the possible financial impact of the Corona crisis. Also discussions about McWilliams’ books The Flat White Economy, The Inequality Paradox and Driving the Silk Road. Concept discussed are helicopter money, super-babies, hyper-inflation and good capitalist ambassadors. Best episode ever of you ask our producer Farid Abbaspour. But then
The number one tech priority for UK teachers is more computers for students in a CEBR report surveying 2,000 teachers and commissioned by Lenovo. Lenovo has commissioned a report from CEBR, Technology in UK Schools, detailing insights into the use of technology in UK schools in 2020, examining the types of technology that have
Forecasting Eye Following disappointing pre-Christmas sales results, Cebr expects retailers to discount to an unprecedented extent in January boosting Q1 sales. The most recent ONS sales figures report that retail sales for the three months up to November (not including Black Friday) increased by 2.6% year-on-year. Cebr estimates that retail sales for Q4 will
Marking our own report card,we reckon we were 100% correct in our political and economic predictions last year (copy of last year’s predictions available here for anyone who wants to check our marking). But looking back we don’t feel too pleased with our performance becausewe chickened out with a ‘don’t know’ on what was by far
CEBR FORECASTING EYE SPECIAL Summary Cebr has performed a quick analysis of the likely economic impact of the Brexit deal agreed at the European Council on 17 October 2019. Obviously this study has been produced at speed and relies heavily on past work. In particular it is based on a study by
Forecasting Eye In keeping with recent trends of polls being misleading, the results of the Indian election last month saw Narendra Modi re-elected with a rather unexpected outright majority. The leader of India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a 60-seat majority in a country which so often ends up with minority governments and vast
We are in Beijing for the start of the rally. Although it is not the largest city in the world (Tokyo) or even the largest in China (Chongqing and Shanghai are larger) it is still twice the size of London with a population of 21 million. And yet it seemed today curiously empty although the
Forecasting Eye At 11 am Beijing time on Monday 27 May Cebr will hold a press conference in Beijing to launch its report on the economic impact of the Belt and Road initiative. The report will be produced with Global Construction Perspectives and is sponsored by the Chartered Institute of Building. One of
Household food bills are set to rise by an estimated £7.15 a month as a result of the UK’s extreme weather, research suggests. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) say 2018’s scorching summer – and the cold, wet winter that preceded it – has affected domestic farming yields, which in turn will
The spending power of Britain’s hard-pressed consumers is slightly increasing as inflation falls and wages rise compared with last year. The latest Asda Income Tracker, which charts the income that households have left to spend after taxes and basic living costs, shows that last month spending power was £16.56 higher compared with a year
Kay Neufeld, an economist at the Cebr consultancy, which conducted the supermarket study, said: “We have seen family spending power decline in five out of the last six months, underlining the mounting pressures on households’ budgets.” London was the winner in the race for higher disposable incomes, Neufeld said, after household income in the
ALDI CONTRIBUTES OVER £8.5BN TO UK ECONOMY, A GDP ‘FOOTPRINT’ THAT IS SET TO RISE TO AT LEAST £11.5BN BY 2022 The analysis shows that Aldi contributed to the generation of over £8.5bn in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to the UK economy in 2016, through job creation, spending with British-based businesses, tax contributions and capital
Technological change presents an opportunity to abolish traffic jams PLUS cut the cost of motoring by about a third and the number of accidents by 90%. The polluting effects of fossil fuels in propelling vehicles could be ended. A ‘Barnett formula’ could be worked out providing the Treasury with rent from road users for the
Allied Healthcare was the first care business to ban compulsory zero hours and exclusive contracts; and we have long called for better pay and conditions for care staff so they can be properly rewarded. The care sector needs to attract, train and retain the best. I believe it is wrong that the care of the
The UK appears to have overtaken France this year to become the world’s 5th largest economy in Cebr Global’s World Economic League Table 2015
Cebr’s research on London’s finances and revenues for the City of London Corporation revealed that the capital made an estimated £34 billion net contribution to UK public finances in 2013/14. The research was covered by the Daily Telegraph and the Evening Standard. The Daily Telegraph covered the findings of The Cost of Care in
Bupa research reveals disengaged employees and poor health cost UK economy £6bn
More than a quarter of the UK’s workforce (27%) – a staggering eight million people – have had a health problem that’s lasted more than a year, according to the new Health at Work Index created for the British Heart Foundation (BHF) by Cebr.
Emerging markets start to suffer from global growth slowdown
Professor McWilliams’ economic reflections from a March 2013 visit
Top ten predictions for 2012 include a country leaving the Euro, economic recession in Europe including the UK, a sharp fall in inflation, a successful Diamond Jubilee and a disappointing Olympics
