China’s economy will increasingly rely on state investment, high-tech development and domestic consumption — with less input from its past staple of export manufacturing — as it stands to overtake the United States in the coming decade, analysts predict. China’s GDP should grow 5.7 percent per year through 2025 and then 4.7 percent annually until
View this article here. A leading London-based think tank has warned the Taliban will be forced to seek cooperation with China to resuscitate the country’s war-torn economy following US withdrawal and the freezing of Western aid. A report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research said China was best placed to fill the vacuum
China dominates the world market for most types of electric vehicles. The Chinese stock of electric cars at 4.6 million is 42% of the world’s total. For electric buses the share is even higher at 98%, for vans it’s 65%. Underpinning this is the Chinese production of lithium ion batteries – where 77% of the world’s
View this article here. BEIJING—China’s geopolitical rise over the past four decades has been fueled by sizzling economic growth that regularly featured years of double-digit percentage-point gains. In 2020, China advanced its aspirations by simply emerging with its growth intact from a brutal year when a pandemic shook the world economy. On Monday, Beijing said
View the full article here. Significant expansion expected in milestone year After a tumultuous year that most people would prefer to forget, what now for 2021? As the new year begins, the pandemic still looms large, with the number of cases continuing to rise sharply in many Western countries. China was the only major economy
View the full article here. China and the US have vied for economic superiority but the pandemic has “tipped the rivalry in China’s favour”. China is set to overtake the US to become the world’s biggest economy five years earlier than previously thought, thanks in part to its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to
In the decade after the global financial crisis the China economy generated a quarter of global GDP but whether it can do the same this time is open to question. China cut its benchmark lending rate by 0.2 to 3.85 percent as well as announcing 1 trillion yuan ($141.3 billion) of debt financing measures
On 1 October, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) presented its latest forecast for trade growth. The outlook has darkened considerably since the last report in April. The WTO now expects world trade volumes to grow at just 1.2% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020, down from 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively. The WTO forecasts are in
Six months ago, we highlighted the uncertain state of the Chinese economy as one of the key determinants of whether the world economy will enter a recession in 2020-21. As I am currently in Beijing to launch the Cebr report on the Belt and Road Initiative (and for the start of the Peking to Paris
To view the full article please click here. More than 200 motoring enthusiasts from across the globe went behind the wheels of their classic and vintage cars, including Bentleys, Porsches and Alfa Romeos, on Saturday in Beijing to gear up for an epic endurance drive from the Chinese capital to Paris. The 36-day
Signing on was at 9 am at which point we were told when we should collect our cars. Mike and I got allocated to the second bus which left at 10 am. We were delighted to discover the car had arrived at the warehouse. Less so that the transport company had drained out all
Initiative likely to raise world GDP by 4.2 percent in 2040, major economics report says China’s Belt and Road Initiative is likely to boost world GDP by $7.1 trillion annually within the next two decades, involving up to $8 trillion of spending over the next quarter century via global infrastructure and other related projects,
Forecasting Eye When it comes to the reliability of official Chinese statistics, it is not a secret that it is politics that guides the data and not – as one might expect – the other way around. The usefulness of official statistics has been discussed for years now as they are likely to mask
Trade wars, trade deals, free trade. Everyone is talking about it. Trade experts now warn of trade distortions. New technologies may help, but a new Cebr study reveals other things may also need fixing behind the border. Despite blunt statements from global leaders, the substance of what is being debated mostly concerns the process
Asian economies will witness significant growth in the next 15 years, according to a new analysis. China is set to overtake the United States to become the world’s largest economy by 2032, according to the World Economic League Table, published annually by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, or CEBR, in London.
“Some observers expect US growth, which hit 4.2 percent in the middle of last year, to slow this year as the boost delivered by Trump’s tax cuts begins to wear off. Douglas McWilliams, deputy chairman and founder of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, a consultancy in London, said the apparent row over
“A report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research in London stated that tariffs placed by the US on Chinese goods had so far hit ￡1.9 billion ($2.4 billion; 2.1 billion euros) of UK exports. This is because British goods are caught up in the supply chains of both countries. Douglas McWilliams, founder
View the full article by Andrew Moody here. “The escalating trade dispute between China and the US is beginning to inflict economic damage on third-party countries, according to a new report. An analysis by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, an economic consultancy in London, concludes that US President Donald Trump’s trade measures
Cebr analysis shows that over £1.9 billion worth of UK exports have been affected by US tariffs on China and the EU so far this year. With further tariffs on China looking likely, the value of UK goods affected could rise to up to £3.4 billion. US tariffs affect the UK directly through the
“The launch of the new routes coincided with the carrying out of Heathrow’s export climate index for by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which revealed that £2.9bn worth of experts passed through the airport to non-EU destinations compared with the same quarter last year. The airport also saw a growth in
China’s top statisticians from the National Bureau of Statistics led by Mr Wang Quanzhong, Deputy Director of the Department of Statistical Design and Management, visited Cebr to discuss interpretation of statistics. The pictures show Cebr’s Head of Macroeconomics, Nina Skero, as well as Managing Economist Kay Neufeld and Economist Pablo Shah with the Chinese team.
“China is one of the largest and fastest growing ecommerce markets in the world. The country now has one billion internet users and increasing numbers of people are using mobile devices to shop on-the-go. As the market evolves, opportunities emerge for UK fashion brands and retailers to sell their goods online to Chinese shoppers.
China may marginally miss its growth targets this year, entering a phase of consolidation
Education & innovation key to driving China’s economic transformation
China over-leveraged but should avoid crash, liberalised capital markets could help
In the summer of last year, hopes were riding high that the global economy could quickly return to pre-pandemic levels of output due to the success of the vaccine roll-out and economies gradually opening up again. However, the economic recovery thus far has been marred by stretched supply chains, clogged up ports and sky-high freight costs,
It is sometimes easier to look a few years ahead than it is to look a few months, and this is surely one of those times. We can only guess as to whether the pandemic will be pretty much over by the summer, but we can be confident that in five or 10 years’ time it will
After such a frenetic year, I was quite surprised to read what we had predicted a year ago and realise that we had correctly forecast quite a lot of what happened. Our world economy GDP forecast was within 0.2% which is as close to spot on as you can reasonably expect. Our warning about inflation was
The world economy is set to surpass $100 trillion for the first time in 2022, two years earlier than previously forecast, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research. Global gross domestic product will be lifted by the continued recovery from the pandemic, although if inflation persists it may be hard for policy makers
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) disclosed the findings in its annual World Economic League Table (WELT 2022) report on Sunday, stating that Bangladesh has been among the world’s fastest growing economies over the last decade. The country is forecast to place 41st in 2022 up from its current position of 42, reaching
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has predicted that India will regain sixth position from France next year and become the third-largest economy in 2031, a year later than previously predicted. CEBR, one of the UK’s leading economics consultancies, in its annual World Economic League Table also predicted that China will overtake the
The world’s economic output will exceed $100 trillion for the first time next year and it will take China a little longer than previously thought to overtake the United States as the No.1 economy, a report showed on Sunday. British consultancy Cebr predicted China will become the world’s top economy in dollar terms in 2030,
The UK will stay as one of the top six global economies for the next fifteen years, according to the latest annual report by the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR). In its world economic forecast, the consultancy firm said it expected the UK to achieve a trend rate of growth of 2.4 per
Britain will be well placed as the world economy emerges from the pandemic in the coming years, according to a new forecast published today. In its annual world economic league table, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicted that global gross domestic product will top $100 trillion (£75 trillion) for the first time
View this article here. Despite the continuing weaknesses of our still fragile democracy, the Philippines is no longer known in international circles as the “sick man of Asia.” Since the beginning of the Third Millennium, as we saw in previous articles in this series, the Philippines has been constantly in the list of the most
View this article here. In the CEBR report, Bangladesh ranks 40th among 193 nations this year and would ascend to 25th in 2034, a place presently held by Belgium According to the World Economic League Table 2020, Bangladesh’s economy would grow at one of the fastest rates between 2020 and 2034, thanks to a demographic
We normally allocate the country reports for Cebr’s World Economic League Table in turn. I traditionally get the first country on the list which is Afghanistan. And so I’ve been writing a macro report on its economy each year for the past four years. Over this period, the prospects for the economy have gradually deteriorated.
The latest SMMT data on car production show that in July, UK manufacturers assembled less than 54,000 new cars. This is the worst July figure since 1956 and a 37.4% year-on-year decline [1]. Up until March this year, car production had seen reasonable month-on-month growth rates and seemed to be recovering from its 2020 woes
My former CBI colleague Andrew Sentence recently described central banks’ typical attitude to emerging inflation as initial denial that there is a problem, then suggesting it was ‘just a blip’, then admitting that there are inflationary pressures but that ‘they are only temporary’, before finally realising that inflation had in fact taken off, requiring urgent
View this article here. Rapid transportation, easy communication, and minimizing tariff and non-tariff trade barriers between countries and regions are key to economic growth and prosperity. These measures lead to inclusive growth of the entire region by enabling all countries to reap fruits of their shared development and economic growth. It is, no doubt, a
View this article here. In the last month, China’s highly successful private tutoring companies and many of its top tech companies, including entertainment giant Tencent, online retailer AliBaba and ride hailing app Didi, have all fallen foul of new Chinese government regulations and faced sharp share price falls. Meanwhile the second-largest Chinese property company Evergrande, which
In the last month, China’s highly successful private tutoring companies and many of its top tech companies, including entertainment giant Tencent, online retailer AliBaba and ride hailing app Didi, have all fallen foul of new Chinese government regulations and faced sharp share price falls. Meanwhile the second-largest Chinese property company Evergrande, which has now broken
View this article here. The UK economy is taking off strongly after the acute covid crisis . However, this rapid recovery in activity can generate major problems in the short and medium term. The islands’ greater isolation after Brexit and global supply problems threaten to bring back the economy from the shortages seen in the
View this article here. Most readers will not remember the shortages of the early 1970s, specifically 1973 and 1974. My parents were furnishing a newly built house overlooking the first fairway of the Muirfield golf course in December 1973 and I vividly remember them having to get the furniture made in Malaysia and then shipped to
View this article here. Some readers will remember the shortages of the early 1970s, and specifically 1973 and 1974. My parents were furnishing a newly built house overlooking the first fairway of the Muirfield golf course in December 1973, and I vividly remember them having to get the furniture made in Malaysia and then shipped
Most readers will not remember the shortages of the early 1970s and specifically 1973 and 1974. My parents were furnishing a newly built house overlooking the first fairway of the Muirfield golf course in December 1973 and I vividly remember them having to get the furniture made in Malaysia and then shipped to the UK
View this article here. Tax experts welcomed today’s agreement among G7 finance ministers for a global minimum corporate tax rate, but warned that the apparent breakthrough left plenty of work to do. In the talks in London, which are being chaired by Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, G7 finance chiefs agreed to a global minimum corporate
View this article here. The 58-year-old office manager travelled to London with her two sisters and their children. Yet Vera and her family are not alone. Thousands of people are taking similar flights, part of a migration wave that has shocked even those who have made it their business to assist Hong Kong citizens to
The UK has given a high level of priority to the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow on 1 – 12 November 2021, with a leading Cabinet Minister, Alok Sharma, being specifically tasked with making the conference a success. This partly reflects the country’s need to acquire a different international
View the full article here. Britain has retaken fifth place in the rankings of the world’s biggest economies despite suffering one of the deepest recessions in the pandemic. According to the annual league table produced by a leading British economics consultancy, the UK has leapfrogged India and will accelerate away from France in the decade after Brexit.
France went into full lockdown on Friday. It is illegal to leave your home except for essential shopping, to work in essential businesses, for medical reasons or to take the one hour of exercise allowed. Non essential businesses will be shut down. Germany has announced also announced a national lockdown, though less severe than in
View the full article here. The high productivity of Hong Kong citizens and the tendency of migrants to work hard as they establish themselves would add to Britain’s wealth if the government’s special immigration pathway were used, the Centre for Economic and Business Research has said. The consultancy estimated that mass migration of Hongkongers to
The Foreign Secretary has developed proposals for a bespoke immigration route for the 2.8 million Hong Kong people who currently have the status of being British Nationals (Overseas) and their dependants. They will be granted five years leave to remain in the UK, with the right to work or study; after these five years, they will be able
Having already suffered pestilence, do we need to look out for the other three apocalyptic horsemen from the Book of Revelations: war, famine and death*? In the past month, there have been some signs. China and India are facing off in the Himalayas, never a good sign when both parties are nuclear-equipped. Cyberwarfare has
Authors: Shanker Singham, CEO – Competere, Douglas McWilliams, Deputy Chairman – Cebr and Cristian Niculescu-Marcu, Director of Economic Analysis – Cebr The Trade Bill setting out many of the key elements of the UK’s future trade policy post Brexit starts its second reading in the House of Commons this week. Meanwhile the government has
The need to distance ourselves from each other socially and at work because of the Covid 19 virus has shattered our economies which are now suffering their worst hits since the 1930s. While it is true that online shopping and working from home have cushioned the shutdown, my colleagues at Cebr have estimated that the
Estimates of daily economic impact of the UK’s lockdown by sector – April 2020 As the UK remains locked down this has extremely severe economic consequences. Our modelling suggests that as restrictions currently stand, the lockdown is leading to a reduction in economic output of 31%[1]. However, this figure varies between sectors across the
Cebr Global Prospects Highlights March 2020 Cebr’s Global Prospects report can be downloaded in full via this link. We have severely downgraded our forecasts for virtually all economies covered. Given that only very little hard data is available showing the impact of the virus on world economies, the forecasts largely reflect our estimates of the
China, and the world, were already burdened by tariffs. Now, some say the coronavirus could undermine fragile growth In 2002, Sars spread virtually unchecked to 37 countries, causing global panic, infecting more than 8,000 people and killing about 750. The coronavirus is spreading at a faster rate. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) says that
Almost 3 trillion renminbi was cleared in the UK between September and November last year The City of London has retained its crown as the world’s leading hub for renminbi clearing outside China, new figures show. Trades totalling nearly 3 trillion renminbi were cleared in the City between September and November last year, up
I should have been flying to Beijing on 16 February. This now seems unlikely. But my problems are minor compared with those of many others. Google, GM and Starbucks are among the companies that have shut down their entire China operations in response to coronavirus which has spread rapidly from Wuhan, where it was first
Johnson will have to get lucky to avoid a weak UK performance What is the outlook for the UK economy? Last year proved difficult for forecasters. Not the overall year, which was correctly anticipated by most as likely to be a pretty poor one, but the volatility—month-to-month and quarter-on-quarter. That was the year of
Marking our own report card,we reckon we were 100% correct in our political and economic predictions last year (copy of last year’s predictions available here for anyone who wants to check our marking). But looking back we don’t feel too pleased with our performance becausewe chickened out with a ‘don’t know’ on what was by far
India is on track to overtake Germany as the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2026, dumping all leading European economies out of the top flight as Asia continues its remarkable rise. The forecast from the Centre for Economic and Business Research in its World Economic League table 2020 underscores the change in the world’s power
A world economic league table with forecasts for 193 countries to 2034
Forecasting Eye We will be holding the launch party for my book ‘Driving the Silk Road – Halfway Round the World in a Bentley S1’ next week and actual publication day is 23 December, just in time for Christmas. The book is published by whitefox*. As we get close to Christmas it is
Cebr was delighted to welcome the National Development and Reform Comission, led by Liu Xilong, Director of the Division of Coal Management of the Bureau of Economic Operations Adjustment. Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams, Chief Executive Nina Skero, Head of Energy Mike McWilliams and Head of Macroeconomics Kay Neufeld presented an overview of the
Forecasting Eye Just over a year ago, Cebr wrote about the risk of a global recession rising to one in three for the 2019-20 period. Looking back at the topics that worried us most back then, we see that some of our predictions have come true while others haven’t materialised (yet). We were certainly
Forecasting Eye Our present short term focused market system does not lead to proper allocation of resources because it doesn’t price externalities properly with little account taken of long term impact of actions. This is of course changing as concern over environmental issues such as climate change is increasing but prices and actions are
Forecasting Eye Finally, after months of resisting, Parliament gave in last week and permitted the Prime Minister Boris Johnson to hold an election on 12 December. We sketch out below the likely consequences of different results for the UK economy. It may surprise some that despite a Conservative lead in the opinion polls
Prosperity paradox: more wealth leads to higher inequality Douglas McWilliams believes China is a classic case of the paradox at the heart of the global economy. Although it has delivered 800 million people out of poverty in the past 40 years, the gap between rich and poor has also grown, something the Chinese
My brother Mike and I completed the Peking to Paris Endurance Rally in the Place Vendome last Sunday in our Bentley S1. Most of the participants made it to the end though many were towed or flatbedded for parts of the journey. No official records are kept for the number of cars that make it under
Endless midsummer nights, stunning archipelagos and tasty meatballs, there are many reasons to go to Sweden for a holiday. In the summer of 2019, you can also snap up a real bargain. Cebr analysis of the Scandinavian currencies illustrates that UK workers will get the best deal should they convert their pounds into Swedish kronor. The
The Bank of England should keep interest rates on hold tomorrow due to uncertainty over Brexit, global trade tensions, and recent weak UK data, City A.M.’s shadow monetary policy (MPC) has argued. Ongoing uncertainty over how Brexit will turn out, and the increasing chances of “no deal” under a Boris Johnson premiership, mean Mark Carney’s
Everyone on the rally has nothing but praise for most Kazakh people. Everywhere we have arrived here we have been met with crowds and local festivities. They have treated us like heroes. Unfortunately it is a bit intimidating when people thrust their kids in front of you to take selfies as you are trying
Forecasting Eye In keeping with recent trends of polls being misleading, the results of the Indian election last month saw Narendra Modi re-elected with a rather unexpected outright majority. The leader of India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a 60-seat majority in a country which so often ends up with minority governments and vast
There is nothing quite like rally driving in a classic car in the desert. Figure 1 Driving in the desert. In this case it is slightly easier because the track is reasonably clear! It imposes three challenges. First, the car is constantly being beaten by bouncing up and down on uneven ground. Gradually this
Our start time had been brought forward from 9.37 to 7am but when we appeared at 7 most people had left. So we drove as fast as we decently could to the border. We had been warned of a convoy of heavy lorries that we had to beat to the border to get in front
A new study by global economic consultants Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) in the U.K. estimates that the global economic impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is likely to boost world GDP by $7.1 trillion per annum by 2040. The predicted rise is an increase of 4.2 percent of likely
One of the advantages having a relatively late starting position is that we have plenty of time for breakfast (but not always – see the end of this blog!). So when we were told that our breakfast was in the restaurant on the 26th floor of our hotel we were pleased. And what a view
At last the great day has arrived and Mike and I left the hotel at 5:30 am, with Rowena and Ianthe getting the supporters’ bus for the 7 am start of the rally at the Great Wall. They laid on an amazing party with dragon dances, lion dancers, acrobats, drummers and the lot to
We had a leisurely breakfast today before chasing after our chores. First task was to buy food supplies for the rally in case we missed any stops or got hungry during the day. Lots of bottled water (not worth having fizzy on a trip that is likely to be bouncy!) and dried food. Figure 1
I got a mini kicking from one of my colleagues a fortnight ago for making observations about the Spanish economy based mainly on what I had seen. But my confidence in my ability to make sound economic observations was revived when my rough guess that Beijing’s GDP per capita was about the same as Singapore’s
I have a reputation in my family for being the last to arrive or to get up and for keeping everyone else waiting so I was quite amused that when Ianthe phoned Mike and Rowena this morning they were still asleep. They did well to appear fully clothed and looking smart within 15 minutes.
We are in Beijing for the start of the rally. Although it is not the largest city in the world (Tokyo) or even the largest in China (Chongqing and Shanghai are larger) it is still twice the size of London with a population of 21 million. And yet it seemed today curiously empty although the
A Cebr report sponsored by The Chartered Institute of Building This new study by global economic consultants Cebr and released in London and Beijing today, looks at the global economic impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).The study uses Cebr’s economic impact of transport and infrastructure analysis and Cebr’s trade frictions analysis. The
Forecasting Eye At 11 am Beijing time on Monday 27 May Cebr will hold a press conference in Beijing to launch its report on the economic impact of the Belt and Road initiative. The report will be produced with Global Construction Perspectives and is sponsored by the Chartered Institute of Building. One of
The British Business Bank does not always get the high profile it deserves. Its annual report showed it had supported 27,000 businesses and had £2.1 billion of funding deployed since 2012 when it was set up by Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat minister in the coalition government, to foster small and middle-sized businesses. In start-ups,
Forecasting Eye Chinese property investment is hugely important internationally – one estimate even has the sector accounting for 4% of global GDP. Signs of distress emerging among developers in China may yet prove to be a precursor for property market trouble in the West. With the slowdown in growth already affecting other Asian economies
The Spring Statement has been delivered the lunchtime after the Prime Minister’s Brexit Withdrawal Bill had been defeated by 149 votes. With the future of the UK’s trading links uncertain, the Spring Statement delivered today has had a provisional air with a range of commitments contingent on Brexit developments. This is understandable. But what
Forecasting Eye Linking up cities around the world is becoming fashionable. On the back of European high speed rail lines such as Paris – Brussels – Cologne – Amsterdam – London, new links are being planned and built in many countries. There is a plan to link Los Angeles, San Francisco and
Forecasting Eye The Port of Rotterdam is one of the busiest in the world, servicing 13.7 million containers in 2017 [1], and facilitating a significant proportion of the UK’s total EU and non-EU trade. The Rotterdam Effect refers to the inflation of trade statistics due to the inclusion of quasi-transit goods. Goods in
Forecasting Eye It’s time for our annual look ahead to see what the New Year will bring. First – how did we do last year? WHAT WE GOT RIGHT – Chinese growth and the world economy slowing, an Italian election bringing in a more confrontational government, the Bitcoin collapse, UK growth at the
Forecasting Eye One of Cebr’s recent themes has been to sidestep the Brexit debate to focus attention on those economic factors within the country’s control. Whatever the final result on Brexit, we still need to pay our way in the world which means being more competitive. Transport infrastructure is important to this. In a
Forecasting Eye During every investment craze, there are plenty of signs that things are taking a wrong turn if one knows where to look. One good indicator is when non-finance professionals suddenly not only talk about their investments but start lecturing others about the incredible returns they claim to be making. Being added
