Cebr’s last World Economic League Table (WELT) published in December 2022 suggested that China leapfrogging the US to become the world’s largest economy measured in dollar terms might be delayed to 2036 from the 2028 date previously forecast. The next version of WELT to be published this coming December will update this forecast but we
By the middle of 2022, China’s top leadership had stopped mentioning their target for GDP growth. It was already clear that they’d fall short of the 5.5 per cent figure set at the beginning of that year, with the Politburo instead saying that they strove for “the best possible results”. In the end, a series of fierce
Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz declared almost a decade ago that 2014 “was the last year in which the United States could claim to be the world’s largest economic power.” It was, he claimed, the start of the “Chinese century”. He was wrong: the US remains the world’s largest economy. Yet experts keep predicting that
China’s economic reopening will provide a limited boost to world growth this year and is unlikely to lead to a surge in global energy price inflation, a think tank has said. The Centre for Economics and Business Research estimates that China’s shift towards domestically generated consumer growth means there will be far more limited “spillover”
China’s abrupt dismantling of its ‘zero-Covid’ policy towards the end of last year has provided optimism amidst the gloom associated with the global economic landscape. Indeed, many analysts believe that China’s reopening can provide an uplift to global GDP in an otherwise bleak outlook for the rest of the world, amidst elevated inflation, tighter monetary
Davos, Switzerland (CNN) The promenade at the World Economic Forum, dusted in a blanket of fresh snow, is cluttered with signs and pavilions from companies and governments courting attention or deals. There’s the tech giants, the major consulting groups, representatives from the Middle East. But this year, dominating the main street in Davos are emissaries from
China is not expected to overtake the United States as the world’s biggest economy until 2036 after repeated coronavirus lockdowns stifled growth in the country, forecasts show. Two years ago, China was expected to overtake the US by 2028. Last year, the forecast was delayed until 2030 and now the Centre for Economics and Business
President Xi’s push for “common prosperity” to reduce the income and wealth gap and his call at the recent Party Congress for “regulating the mechanism of wealth accumulation” will further dampen entrepreneurship and catalyse capital flight. Financial markets are experiencing a major change in mood on China: post-Party Congress Chinese stock market indices and yuan exchange
By 2030 China will have overtaken the United States as the world’s largest economy — so says the Centre for Economics and Business Research. China has long been promoted by the funds industry as offering long-term growth opportunities, and early investors will have seen their faith heavily rewarded. An investment into the iShares China Large
Amidst global economic volatility, China seems to be struggling to maintain its course. Economists have slashed growth forecasts for the mainland, with the most pessimistic hovering at around 2% for 2022, a far cry from the 5.5% Beijing projected earlier this year. The strongest economic headwind of all is China’s ‘Covid-zero’ strategy. Harsh, targeted yet
Shanghai, widely hailed as China’s commercial capital, has become the biggest victim of the mainland’s aggressive zero-Covid strategy. Having kept new cases in single digits for much of 2021, a spike in infections saw the port city enter lockdown in late March, as part of the central government’s hard-line mandate to stymie community transmissions. The
On Saturday China’s National People’s Congress session officially opened for this year, with the country’s Premier Li Keqiang stealing the headlines for his announcements on the state of Beijing’s economy. Among the targets revealed for 2022 he told observers that China would be targeting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of around 5.5 percent. Mr Li said Chinese officials
The Russia-Ukraine crisis could prove “disastrous” for Asian economies, with surging prices of fuel and commodities likely to add to coronavirus-induced economic woes, economists have warned. Although Western countries stopped short of enacting sanctions on direct supplies of goods from Russia as they levied “modest first-tranche” restrictions on Russian elites and financial systems, the crisis has sent jitters
By 2030, China is forecast to become the world’s largest economy, for now, it has just surpassed the EU. In a milestone moment, the economy of China surpassed the whole of the European Union (EU), for the first time. Figures released this week by the European Statistical Office (Eurostat) said that the gross domestic product (GDP)
The world economy is poised to reach a remarkable milestone in 2022: Total annual GDP will soar past $100 trillion for the first time, two years earlier than previously forecast, according to the latest projections by London-based economic consulting firm CEBR. Perhaps even more notable is that total GDP is predicted to then double to $200 trillion by
China’s economy will increasingly rely on state investment, high-tech development and domestic consumption — with less input from its past staple of export manufacturing — as it stands to overtake the United States in the coming decade, analysts predict. China’s GDP should grow 5.7 percent per year through 2025 and then 4.7 percent annually until
View this article here. A leading London-based think tank has warned the Taliban will be forced to seek cooperation with China to resuscitate the country’s war-torn economy following US withdrawal and the freezing of Western aid. A report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research said China was best placed to fill the vacuum
China dominates the world market for most types of electric vehicles. The Chinese stock of electric cars at 4.6 million is 42% of the world’s total. For electric buses the share is even higher at 98%, for vans it’s 65%. Underpinning this is the Chinese production of lithium ion batteries – where 77% of the world’s
View this article here. BEIJING—China’s geopolitical rise over the past four decades has been fueled by sizzling economic growth that regularly featured years of double-digit percentage-point gains. In 2020, China advanced its aspirations by simply emerging with its growth intact from a brutal year when a pandemic shook the world economy. On Monday, Beijing said
View the full article here. Significant expansion expected in milestone year After a tumultuous year that most people would prefer to forget, what now for 2021? As the new year begins, the pandemic still looms large, with the number of cases continuing to rise sharply in many Western countries. China was the only major economy
View the full article here. China and the US have vied for economic superiority but the pandemic has “tipped the rivalry in China’s favour”. China is set to overtake the US to become the world’s biggest economy five years earlier than previously thought, thanks in part to its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to
In the decade after the global financial crisis the China economy generated a quarter of global GDP but whether it can do the same this time is open to question. China cut its benchmark lending rate by 0.2 to 3.85 percent as well as announcing 1 trillion yuan ($141.3 billion) of debt financing measures
On 1 October, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) presented its latest forecast for trade growth. The outlook has darkened considerably since the last report in April. The WTO now expects world trade volumes to grow at just 1.2% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020, down from 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively. The WTO forecasts are in
Six months ago, we highlighted the uncertain state of the Chinese economy as one of the key determinants of whether the world economy will enter a recession in 2020-21. As I am currently in Beijing to launch the Cebr report on the Belt and Road Initiative (and for the start of the Peking to Paris
To view the full article please click here. More than 200 motoring enthusiasts from across the globe went behind the wheels of their classic and vintage cars, including Bentleys, Porsches and Alfa Romeos, on Saturday in Beijing to gear up for an epic endurance drive from the Chinese capital to Paris. The 36-day
Signing on was at 9 am at which point we were told when we should collect our cars. Mike and I got allocated to the second bus which left at 10 am. We were delighted to discover the car had arrived at the warehouse. Less so that the transport company had drained out all
Initiative likely to raise world GDP by 4.2 percent in 2040, major economics report says China’s Belt and Road Initiative is likely to boost world GDP by $7.1 trillion annually within the next two decades, involving up to $8 trillion of spending over the next quarter century via global infrastructure and other related projects,
Forecasting Eye When it comes to the reliability of official Chinese statistics, it is not a secret that it is politics that guides the data and not – as one might expect – the other way around. The usefulness of official statistics has been discussed for years now as they are likely to mask
Trade wars, trade deals, free trade. Everyone is talking about it. Trade experts now warn of trade distortions. New technologies may help, but a new Cebr study reveals other things may also need fixing behind the border. Despite blunt statements from global leaders, the substance of what is being debated mostly concerns the process
Asian economies will witness significant growth in the next 15 years, according to a new analysis. China is set to overtake the United States to become the world’s largest economy by 2032, according to the World Economic League Table, published annually by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, or CEBR, in London.
“Some observers expect US growth, which hit 4.2 percent in the middle of last year, to slow this year as the boost delivered by Trump’s tax cuts begins to wear off. Douglas McWilliams, deputy chairman and founder of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, a consultancy in London, said the apparent row over
“A report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research in London stated that tariffs placed by the US on Chinese goods had so far hit ￡1.9 billion ($2.4 billion; 2.1 billion euros) of UK exports. This is because British goods are caught up in the supply chains of both countries. Douglas McWilliams, founder
View the full article by Andrew Moody here. “The escalating trade dispute between China and the US is beginning to inflict economic damage on third-party countries, according to a new report. An analysis by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, an economic consultancy in London, concludes that US President Donald Trump’s trade measures
Cebr analysis shows that over £1.9 billion worth of UK exports have been affected by US tariffs on China and the EU so far this year. With further tariffs on China looking likely, the value of UK goods affected could rise to up to £3.4 billion. US tariffs affect the UK directly through the
“The launch of the new routes coincided with the carrying out of Heathrow’s export climate index for by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which revealed that £2.9bn worth of experts passed through the airport to non-EU destinations compared with the same quarter last year. The airport also saw a growth in
China’s top statisticians from the National Bureau of Statistics led by Mr Wang Quanzhong, Deputy Director of the Department of Statistical Design and Management, visited Cebr to discuss interpretation of statistics. The pictures show Cebr’s Head of Macroeconomics, Nina Skero, as well as Managing Economist Kay Neufeld and Economist Pablo Shah with the Chinese team.
“China is one of the largest and fastest growing ecommerce markets in the world. The country now has one billion internet users and increasing numbers of people are using mobile devices to shop on-the-go. As the market evolves, opportunities emerge for UK fashion brands and retailers to sell their goods online to Chinese shoppers.
China may marginally miss its growth targets this year, entering a phase of consolidation
Education & innovation key to driving China’s economic transformation
China over-leveraged but should avoid crash, liberalised capital markets could help
Our main forecast a year ago was that the UK would suffer a recession. Although the latest data released just before Christmas suggests that a technical recession may well be taking place in Q3 and Q4 this year, the reality is that the economy has flatlined rather than fallen back. We would treat this prediction
World Economic League Table 2024 Download the full report here. Highlights We expect world GDP will continue to grow, albeit at a slower-than-average pace till 2025, as a result of the high interest rate policies adopted by central banks to bring down inflation. We estimate that GDP will amount to $104 trillion for 2023 as
In an eerie repetition of the bond squeeze a year ago, which was caused by a combination of Bank of England failures and a bad market reaction to Liz Truss’s mini-budget, the yield on the UK government 30-year bond rose 21 basis points in the week to Wednesday 4 October to reach 5.00%, its highest
Following the recent data revision by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK is estimated to have performed significantly stronger than initially thought in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. The ONS now estimates that the UK economy in Q4 2021 was 0.6% larger than two years earlier before the start of the pandemic.
It’s interesting that no one official in China talks about when the Chinese economy will be bigger than that of the US. Their immediate objective is that China becomes a high income economy (defined by the World Bank’s metrics) by 2025. Having been remarkably successful at reducing (on their own figures they claim to have
The inflation data from the UK over the past week has hinted that the Bank of England’s rate raising cycle may not yet be over. Wage inflation of 8% and core CPI inflation of 6.9% suggest that the target of 2% remains distant, despite falling producer prices. It is unlikely that the wage price cycle
We are expecting a major inventory cycle in worldwide manufacturing over the next two years, hitting already fragile manufacturing sectors in global economies. Even in normal times, the shape of the current economic cycle would lead to a knock-on inventory cycle, but high interest rates will amplify its shape in 2024 and 2025. This will
Compared to the gloomy forecasts at the nadir of the energy crisis last winter, recent months have seen widespread upward revisions to growth forecasts, particularly for the UK, which now looks set to avoid recession in the first half of 2023. The Eurozone, too, has fared less badly than predicted albeit growth remains anaemic and
When Tim Cook arrived in India earlier this month to open Apple’s first physical store in the country, he was welcomed like a hero. The CEO was greeted with cheers and applause, presented with a vintage Macintosh and held court with the country’s officials, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Cook’s visit, the latest by a top global executive, exemplifies the
Will the UK economy swerve recession in 2023? If you’ve paid any attention to the news over the last few weeks, the answer would seem to be a resounding no. Yet the latest forecast from the respected National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIES) think tank is for mild growth in every quarter next year, and
Competitive manufacturing centres are needed to ensure the cost of low-carbon technologies continues its precipitous fall over the past decade. If the energy story of the first two decades of this century was China, that of the period to 2050 will be India. Over the next two decades, the South Asian giant will see more
A new Department focused on the energy portfolio is a step forwards, and reflects a realisation by the government of the growing importance of energy. However, “Energy Security and Net Zero” sounds like a dichotomy – can we really have both? I think that there is a way, but it will require bold decisions and
Many at the World Economic Forum in Davos described India as a bright spot on the world stage. Infrastructure spending, foreign investment, the digital transition and inflation heading lower were cited as causes for optimism. However, some analysts argue the country is largely benefiting from weak comparisons. With 2023′s World Economic Forum in Davos dominated
Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to make India a developed nation. How soon can a country once synonymous with red tape become a $10 trillion economy? India’s economic transformation is kicking into high gear. Global manufacturers are looking beyond China, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi stepping up to seize the moment. The government is spending nearly
From the economy to the energy transition, India’s action on crucial global issues was a major topic of discussion at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2023 in Davos, Switzerland. By 2035, India will become the third $10 trillion economy, the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts. Here are five highlights on India
The boom in real-time payments is reverberating across the world, and by 2026 they will make up 25% of all electronic payments. Market forces and the global pandemic accelerated adoption to new levels, providing consumers and businesses cheaper, faster and more efficient ways to pay — and there’s no looking back. And as more and
GEEKBAR, a vape technology brand, is taking intelligent manufacturing to new heights by investing more than £120m into setting up a futuristic production facility, as part of its growth plans in the UK and to continue to be a leading vape brand of choice amongst British retailers. The two-year-project will see some of the most
Tumbling gas prices thanks to unseasonably warm weather could save the government billions of pounds in energy subsidies and debt interest payments, raising questions about how the chancellor might spend the money instead. Analysts have calculated that the Treasury could save the estimated £13 billion it planned to borrow to pay for a household energy
2023 doesn’t look a great year for the UK – but the shafts of light are that inflation will be on its way down and the economy should start to recover at some point in the year What did we get right last year? After an extraordinary year, I was amazed to find that our
High interest rates take a toll as inflation remains a threat China not forecast to pass US as largest economy until 2036 The world faces a recession in 2023 as higher borrowing costs aimed at tackling inflation cause a number of economies to contract, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research. The global
A world economic league table with forecasts for 191 countries to 2037. The latest edition, WELT 2023, comes at a time of significant change in the world order and heightened global economic uncertainty. It is Cebr’s 14th annual world economic outlook report.
THE world is in for a challenging year ahead, as the sharp rise in interest rates over the past year amid the tightening of US monetary policy — which has taken a toll on currency markets, particularly in Europe and Asia — and China’s property crisis culminate in an imminent global recession, says prominent economist
Consumer prices jumped by a fresh record of 10.7 percent in October, stoked by an eye-watering 41.9 percent rise in energy costs, Eurostat said. The news came after the European Central Bank warned last week that a recession was looming, as it announced another jumbo interest rate hike to try to curb inflation driven up
In 2000 Malaysia’s GDP per capita (in 2015 $) was $6,393. Romania’s was $4,549. China’s was $2,194. By 2021 their levels of GDP per capita were roughly equal – Romania at $11,590, China’s at $11,188 and Malaysia’s at $10,827.1 Moreover, Malaysia’s GDP per capita was about the same as it had been four years earlier in
The Western media is full of stories of China’s impending collapse. Attention is drawn to lockdowns enforced by militia with automatic weapons in Shenzhen; home buyers banding together to refuse to pay mortgages on unfinished properties ‘in more than 100 cities’ according to the New York Times, sudden lockdowns in Shanghai leaving people ‘without food or
Optimum utilisation of resources while maintaining the growth momentum in the economy is a conundrum that every responsible country is experiencing. Especially as the climate goals from COP26 summit looms nearer, the countries are laying out strategies to cut emissions, promote zero waste economy while facing rapid urbanisation and population growth. As India prepares its
“I’ve not taken the easy route,” Rishi Sunak admitted as the curtain fell on one of his bruising showdowns with Liz Truss. On economics at least, the former chancellor has not. As he fights to stay in the race to become the next Prime Minister, Sunak is struggling to win both the heads and hearts of
The widespread uptake of new digital and real-time payments services in Nigeria has helped to unlock $3.2 billion of additional economic output last year, representing 0.67 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) last year. This boost from digital payment adoption is also forecast to rise to $6 billion by 2026 (1.01per cent
When it comes to his pay packet Andi Case has never been a man to be short-changed, but last year was a truly vintage one for the kingpin of the UK’s shipbroking industry. The chief executive of Clarksons took home £6.8 million, more than the bosses of Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s combined. Why is
1 Many families do not have the cash reserves to cope with the rapidly rising cost of living because income growth was so poor in the years running up to the pandemic, according to a report by the Resolution Foundation, a think tank. It said that tenants and those with young children are most “brutally exposed to the
The French economy has fallen below that of Brexit Britain after being ahead of the UK in 2011, recent data has revealed. The data from The Centre for Economics and Business Research, the World Bank and Trading Economics said that by 2030 China will be the world’s largest economy. Research forecasts that France – led by President Emmanuel
Thailand recorded 9.7 billion real-time electronic payment transactions last year, putting it in the third position globally after India (48.6 billion times) and China (18.5 billion times). This data was revealed in a study by ACI Worldwide, Global Data, and Centre for Economics and Business Research. “Real-time e-payments have helped boost Thailand’s GDP in 2021
Yesterday’s announcement by Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer, signals that the Government is waking up to the extreme challenges faced by many UK households as prices continue to soar. All in all, the May 2022 Cost of Living Support package represents a generous intervention, which will particularly help the most vulnerable households in keeping
India led the world in real-time payment transactions in 2021, with 48.6 Bn such transactions, representing more than 40% of the global transactions, emerging from the country, according to a report. The number of real-time transactions in India was almost 2.6X higher than that of China (18 Bn transactions) and almost seven times higher than
Earlier this month, the UK revealed its latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which demonstrated slower growth than most predictions. A similar trend is expected in the US, though officials there are still anticipating healthy growth in 2022 regardless of the knock-on effects created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US GDP for
Download the full report here Cebr was commissioned by ACI Worldwide to conduct research into the economic impact of real-time payments, across a sample of thirty major global economies. Real-time payments have the potential to revolutionise the way that funds are circulated across the economy by delivering payments near instantaneously, subsequently promoting economic growth, efficiency,
Real-time payments are forecast to boost India’s GDP by $45.9 billion in 2026 as real-time payments transaction volumes are set to exceed 206 billion by that time, a new report showed on Tuesday. In 2021, India accounted for the largest number of real-time transactions at 48.6 billion, almost threefold that of China (18 billion transactions)
With the expected introduction by the Federal Reserve next year of a commercial real-time payments platform for the United States, total instant payments in the U.S. market will rise nearly five-fold, to 8.9 billion, by 2026. That’s up from 1.8 billion last year. The dollar volume on these transactions will account for nearly 3% of
India accounted for the highest volume of real-time payments among businesses around the world, with over 40% of all such payments made through 2021 originating in the country. According to a report by payment solutions provider ACI Worldwide, data analytics firm GlobalData, and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), India made 48.6 billion
Real-time payments are forecast to boost India’s GDP by $45.9 billion in 2026 as real-time payments transaction volumes are set to exceed 206 billion by that time, a new report showed on Tuesday. In 2021, India accounted for the largest number of real-time transactions at 48.6 billion, almost threefold that of China (18 billion transactions) and
The year 2021 saw India’s real-time transactions moving up to a staggering 48.6 billion, almost threefold that of the closest challenger China with 18 billion transactions, and close to seven times greater than the combined real-time payments volume (7.5 billion) of the world’s leading economies: U.S., Canada, U.K., France and Germany, as per an ACI
At 48 billion, India accounted for the largest number of worldwide real-time transactions in 2021 , almost three times that of nearest challenger China (18 billion), and 6.5 times greater than the US, Canada, UK, France and Germany combined, according to a report by ACI Worldwide. For India, the growing acceptance of UPI-based mobile payment apps and
While oil prices have surged since the start of the Ukraine conflict a number of factors could now begin working to drive them back down again. Modelling by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) predicts oil prices will fall below $90 a barrel (£68.55) by 2024 with most of the fall forecast by
Young Russians are bemoaning the state of their country’s economy as prices for everyday goods soar following Western sanctions. The Russian economy is buckling under pressure as GDP falls by 10 percent so far in 2022, with a further 1.5percent reduction expected next year according to the European development bank EBRD. This would mark the
As companies pull out and sanctions grip the economy, young Russians face a dramatic change in living standards. A daily medium cup of coffee in Moscow has turned into an unrealistic luxury for Katya*, costing “as much as a whole meal in a mid-range cafe”. When the Russian capital’s shopping centres were filled with Western
China will not openly support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but, united in their opposition to a US-led world order, both countries are seeking to set new rules. Last Friday at the United Nations Security Council in New York, there was zero expectation that the US-proposed draft resolution condemning Russia’s “invasion” of Ukraine and calling on
Displaying its policy wonk origins, Michael Gove’s long-awaited white paper on Levelling up the United Kingdom and one of the government’s flagship policies, is full of historical analogies and quotes. The 322-page epic starts with a tour d’horizon going back 7,000 years, the middle part is a detailed analysis of productivity differentials between regions, somewhat
New UK export business rose slightly for the first time in five months during January, the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed. The monthly survey from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS) found stronger demand from the European Union, the US, China, Brazil and the Middle East and North Africa, while UK
In the summer of last year, hopes were riding high that the global economy could quickly return to pre-pandemic levels of output due to the success of the vaccine roll-out and economies gradually opening up again. However, the economic recovery thus far has been marred by stretched supply chains, clogged up ports and sky-high freight costs,
It is sometimes easier to look a few years ahead than it is to look a few months, and this is surely one of those times. We can only guess as to whether the pandemic will be pretty much over by the summer, but we can be confident that in five or 10 years’ time it will
After such a frenetic year, I was quite surprised to read what we had predicted a year ago and realise that we had correctly forecast quite a lot of what happened. Our world economy GDP forecast was within 0.2% which is as close to spot on as you can reasonably expect. Our warning about inflation was
The world economy is set to surpass $100 trillion for the first time in 2022, two years earlier than previously forecast, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research. Global gross domestic product will be lifted by the continued recovery from the pandemic, although if inflation persists it may be hard for policy makers
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) disclosed the findings in its annual World Economic League Table (WELT 2022) report on Sunday, stating that Bangladesh has been among the world’s fastest growing economies over the last decade. The country is forecast to place 41st in 2022 up from its current position of 42, reaching
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has predicted that India will regain sixth position from France next year and become the third-largest economy in 2031, a year later than previously predicted. CEBR, one of the UK’s leading economics consultancies, in its annual World Economic League Table also predicted that China will overtake the
The world’s economic output will exceed $100 trillion for the first time next year and it will take China a little longer than previously thought to overtake the United States as the No.1 economy, a report showed on Sunday. British consultancy Cebr predicted China will become the world’s top economy in dollar terms in 2030,
