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Your results for searching: china
There is scope for cooperation between China and the West – we have a suggestion to help improve relations…
June 20, 2022

Amidst global economic volatility, China seems to be struggling to maintain its course. Economists have slashed growth forecasts for the mainland, with the most pessimistic hovering at around 2% for 2022, a far cry from the 5.5% Beijing projected earlier this year. The strongest economic headwind of all is China’s ‘Covid-zero’ strategy. Harsh, targeted yet

Strict lockdown measures in Shanghai estimated to knock 0.3 percentage point off China’s output in March
May 9, 2022

Shanghai, widely hailed as China’s commercial capital, has become the biggest victim of the mainland’s aggressive zero-Covid strategy. Having kept new cases in single digits for much of 2021, a spike in infections saw the port city enter lockdown in late March, as part of the central government’s hard-line mandate to stymie community transmissions. The

Daily Express – China economy vs UK compared, GDP ‘top priority’
March 5, 2022

On Saturday China’s National People’s Congress session officially opened for this year, with the country’s Premier Li Keqiang stealing the headlines for his announcements on the state of Beijing’s economy. Among the targets revealed for 2022 he told observers that China would be targeting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of around 5.5 percent. Mr Li said Chinese officials

South China Morning Post – Russia-Ukraine crisis: Asian economies face ‘disastrous’ rise in fuel and commodity prices, with Japan and South Korea likely to bear brunt
February 23, 2022

The Russia-Ukraine crisis could prove “disastrous” for Asian economies, with surging prices of fuel and commodities likely to add to coronavirus-induced economic woes, economists have warned. Although Western countries stopped short of enacting sanctions on direct supplies of goods from Russia as they levied “modest first-tranche” restrictions on Russian elites and financial systems, the crisis has sent jitters

TRT World – China’s economy surpasses the European Union’s for the first time
February 1, 2022

By 2030, China is forecast to become the world’s largest economy, for now, it has just surpassed the EU. In a milestone moment, the economy of China surpassed the whole of the European Union (EU), for the first time. Figures released this week by the European Statistical Office (Eurostat) said that the gross domestic product (GDP)

Fortune – This chart shows how China will soar past the U.S. to become the world’s largest economy by 2030
January 30, 2022

The world economy is poised to reach a remarkable milestone in 2022: Total annual GDP will soar past $100 trillion for the first time, two years earlier than previously forecast, according to the latest projections by London-based economic consulting firm CEBR. Perhaps even more notable is that total GDP is predicted to then double to $200 trillion by

Chosun Ilbo – China’s Economy Could Overtake U.S. Economy by 2030
January 5, 2022

China’s economy will increasingly rely on state investment, high-tech development and domestic consumption — with less input from its past staple of export manufacturing — as it stands to overtake the United States in the coming decade, analysts predict. China’s GDP should grow 5.7 percent per year through 2025 and then 4.7 percent annually until

Arab News – Afghanistan may seek more business with China, CEBR says
September 10, 2021

View this article here. A leading London-based think tank has warned the Taliban will be forced to seek cooperation with China to resuscitate the country’s war-torn economy following US withdrawal and the freezing of Western aid. A report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research said China was best placed to fill the vacuum

China’s net zero plan means a huge transformation between 2025 and 2060
March 15, 2021

China dominates the world market for most types of electric vehicles. The Chinese stock of electric cars at 4.6 million is 42% of the world’s total. For electric buses the share is even higher at 98%, for vans it’s 65%. Underpinning this is the Chinese production of lithium ion batteries – where 77% of the world’s

The Wall Street Journal – China Still Grew and Fueled Its Rise as Covid-19 Shook the Global Economy
January 18, 2021

View this article here. BEIJING—China’s geopolitical rise over the past four decades has been fueled by sizzling economic growth that regularly featured years of double-digit percentage-point gains. In 2020, China advanced its aspirations by simply emerging with its growth intact from a brutal year when a pandemic shook the world economy. On Monday, Beijing said

China Daily – Bullish growth prospects forecast for country
January 5, 2021

View the full article here. Significant expansion expected in milestone year After a tumultuous year that most people would prefer to forget, what now for 2021? As the new year begins, the pandemic still looms large, with the number of cases continuing to rise sharply in many Western countries. China was the only major economy

Sky News – COVID response to help China become world’s biggest economy five years early
January 5, 2021

View the full article here. China and the US have vied for economic superiority but the pandemic has “tipped the rivalry in China’s favour”. China is set to overtake the US to become the world’s biggest economy five years earlier than previously thought, thanks in part to its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to

China Daily – Does China have the financial firepower to lift the world out of a global recession?
April 21, 2020

In the decade after the global financial crisis the China economy generated a quarter of global GDP but whether it can do the same this time is open to question.   China cut its benchmark lending rate by 0.2 to 3.85 percent as well as announcing 1 trillion yuan ($141.3 billion) of debt financing measures

Composite China Import Index falls to four-month low as tariffs start to affect China’s regional trade partners
October 28, 2019

On 1 October, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) presented its latest forecast for trade growth. The outlook has darkened considerably since the last report in April. The WTO now expects world trade volumes to grow at just 1.2% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020, down from 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively. The WTO forecasts are in

China’s recovery is more sluggish than we had hoped…
June 3, 2019

Six months ago, we highlighted the uncertain state of the Chinese economy as one of the key determinants of whether the world economy will enter a recession in 2020-21. As I am currently in Beijing to launch the Cebr report on the Belt and Road Initiative (and for the start of the Peking to Paris

China Daily Article – Classic, vintage cars roll out for epic Beijing to Paris endurance drive
June 1, 2019

To view the full article please click here.   More than 200 motoring enthusiasts from across the globe went behind the wheels of their classic and vintage cars, including Bentleys, Porsches and Alfa Romeos, on Saturday in Beijing to gear up for an epic endurance drive from the Chinese capital to Paris.   The 36-day

At last we collect our cars, meet an old friend, stick on stickers, pass scrutineering and brief China Daily
June 1, 2019

Signing on was at 9 am at which point we were told when we should collect our cars. Mike and I got allocated to the second bus which left at 10 am.   We were delighted to discover the car had arrived at the warehouse. Less so that the transport company had drained out all

China Daily – Belt and Road set to transform global economy
May 27, 2019

Initiative likely to raise world GDP by 4.2 percent in 2040, major economics report says   China’s Belt and Road Initiative is likely to boost world GDP by $7.1 trillion annually within the next two decades, involving up to $8 trillion of spending over the next quarter century via global infrastructure and other related projects,

Asian exports to China are down by up to 15%, but economic stimulus could yet delay a more severe slowdown
April 29, 2019

Forecasting Eye    When it comes to the reliability of official Chinese statistics, it is not a secret that it is politics that guides the data and not – as one might expect – the other way around. The usefulness of official statistics has been discussed for years now as they are likely to mask

China Daily Cover Story
March 11, 2019
US, China, Brexit… it’s all about international trade. But we have to oil the wheels at home too – domestic and export markets should not be seen as separate
March 11, 2019

Trade wars, trade deals, free trade. Everyone is talking about it. Trade experts now warn of trade distortions. New technologies may help, but a new Cebr study reveals other things may also need fixing behind the border.   Despite blunt statements from global leaders, the substance of what is being debated mostly concerns the process

China Daily – Asian economies poised to take huge strides
January 8, 2019

Asian economies will witness significant growth in the next 15 years, according to a new analysis.   China is set to overtake the United States to become the world’s largest economy by 2032, according to the World Economic League Table, published annually by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, or CEBR, in London.  

China Daily – Nation to step closer to prosperity goal
January 8, 2019

“Some observers expect US growth, which hit 4.2 percent in the middle of last year, to slow this year as the boost delivered by Trump’s tax cuts begins to wear off.   Douglas McWilliams, deputy chairman and founder of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, a consultancy in London, said the apparent row over

China Daily – Winds of change
November 30, 2018

“A report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research in London stated that tariffs placed by the US on Chinese goods had so far hit £1.9 billion ($2.4 billion; 2.1 billion euros) of UK exports. This is because British goods are caught up in the supply chains of both countries.   Douglas McWilliams, founder

China Daily, front page – US-China trade spat harming 3rd parties
October 3, 2018

View the full article by Andrew Moody here.   “The escalating trade dispute between China and the US is beginning to inflict economic damage on third-party countries, according to a new report.   An analysis by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, an economic consultancy in London, concludes that US President Donald Trump’s trade measures

More than £1.9bn UK exports affected by US tariffs on the EU and China
October 1, 2018

Cebr analysis shows that over £1.9 billion worth of UK exports have been affected by US tariffs on China and the EU so far this year. With further tariffs on China looking likely, the value of UK goods affected could rise to up to £3.4 billion.   US tariffs affect the UK directly through the

City A.M. – Heathrow expands footprint into China with new routes – but warns it lags behind EU rivals
June 1, 2018

“The launch of the new routes coincided with the carrying out of Heathrow’s export climate index for by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which revealed that £2.9bn worth of experts passed through the airport to non-EU destinations compared with the same quarter last year.   The airport also saw a growth in

China’s Top Statisticians Visit Cebr
January 16, 2018

China’s top statisticians from the National Bureau of Statistics led by Mr Wang Quanzhong, Deputy Director of the Department of Statistical Design and Management, visited Cebr to discuss interpretation of statistics. The pictures show Cebr’s Head of Macroeconomics, Nina Skero, as well as Managing Economist Kay Neufeld and Economist Pablo Shah with the Chinese team.  

Retail Gazette – Why China’s ecommerce boom is great for British retail
November 7, 2017

“China is one of the largest and fastest growing ecommerce markets in the world. The country now has one billion internet users and increasing numbers of people are using mobile devices to shop on-the-go.   As the market evolves, opportunities emerge for UK fashion brands and retailers to sell their goods online to Chinese shoppers.

China’s interest rate cut
August 28, 2015

Latest rate cut in China is a problem, not a solution

China to meet 7.5% growth target
September 15, 2014

Q3 China Economic Insight

China to miss its growth targets this year
June 17, 2014

China may marginally miss its growth targets this year, entering a phase of consolidation

More challenges for China ahead
March 20, 2014

Education & innovation key to driving China’s economic transformation

Changes in China’s economy
December 11, 2013

China could be on brink of ‘new dawn of expansion’

Risk in China’s financial markets
September 23, 2013

China over-leveraged but should avoid crash, liberalised capital markets could help

The Star – Thailand are the third highest users of e-payments in the world
June 20, 2022

Thailand recorded 9.7 billion real-time electronic payment transactions last year, putting it in the third position globally after India (48.6 billion times) and China (18.5 billion times). This data was revealed in a study by ACI Worldwide, Global Data, and Centre for Economics and Business Research. “Real-time e-payments have helped boost Thailand’s GDP in 2021

Chancellor wakes up to the need for targeted cost-of-living support, but this may only be a temporary plaster
May 27, 2022

Yesterday’s announcement by Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer, signals that the Government is waking up to the extreme challenges faced by many UK households as prices continue to soar. All in all, the May 2022 Cost of Living Support package represents a generous intervention, which will particularly help the most vulnerable households in keeping

Inc 42 – India Tops The World In Real-Time Payment Volumes In 2021
April 27, 2022

India led the world in real-time payment transactions in 2021, with 48.6 Bn such transactions, representing more than 40% of the global transactions, emerging from the country, according to a report. The number of real-time transactions in India was almost 2.6X higher than that of China (18 Bn transactions) and almost seven times higher than

Daily Express – US vs UK GDP: How does Britain’s economy compare with the US?
April 27, 2022

Earlier this month, the UK revealed its latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which demonstrated slower growth than most predictions. A similar trend is expected in the US, though officials there are still anticipating healthy growth in 2022 regardless of the knock-on effects created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US GDP for

The Economic Impact of Real-Time Payments
April 27, 2022

Download the full report here Cebr was commissioned by ACI Worldwide to conduct research into the economic impact of real-time payments, across a sample of thirty major global economies. Real-time payments have the potential to revolutionise the way that funds are circulated across the economy by delivering payments near instantaneously, subsequently promoting economic growth, efficiency,

ABP Live – Real-Time Payments Likely To Boost India’s GDP By $45.9 Billion In 2026
April 26, 2022

Real-time payments are forecast to boost India’s GDP by $45.9 billion in 2026 as real-time payments transaction volumes are set to exceed 206 billion by that time, a new report showed on Tuesday. In 2021, India accounted for the largest number of real-time transactions at 48.6 billion, almost threefold that of China (18 billion transactions)

Digital Transactions – As Other Markets Advance, the U.S. Has Much Catching up To Do in Real Time Payments
April 26, 2022

With the expected introduction by the Federal Reserve next year of a commercial real-time payments platform for the United States, total instant payments in the U.S. market will rise nearly five-fold, to 8.9 billion, by 2026. That’s up from 1.8 billion last year. The dollar volume on these transactions will account for nearly 3% of

Live Mint – 40% of global real-time payments originated in India in 2021
April 26, 2022

India accounted for the highest volume of real-time payments among businesses around the world, with over 40% of all such payments made through 2021 originating in the country. According to a report by payment solutions provider ACI Worldwide, data analytics firm GlobalData, and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), India made 48.6 billion

Business Insider – Real-time payments are forecast to boost Indian GDP by US $45.9 billion in 2026
April 26, 2022

Real-time payments are forecast to boost India’s GDP by $45.9 billion in 2026 as real-time payments transaction volumes are set to exceed 206 billion by that time, a new report showed on Tuesday. In 2021, India accounted for the largest number of real-time transactions at 48.6 billion, almost threefold that of China (18 billion transactions) and

The Hindu – Netizens in India made 48.6 billon real-time transactions in 2021
April 26, 2022

The year 2021 saw India’s real-time transactions moving up to a staggering 48.6 billion, almost threefold that of the closest challenger China with 18 billion transactions, and close to seven times greater than the combined real-time payments volume (7.5 billion) of the world’s leading economies: U.S., Canada, U.K., France and Germany, as per an ACI

The Times of India – At 48 billion, India account for largest number of real-time transactions in the world
April 25, 2022

At 48 billion, India accounted for the largest number of worldwide real-time transactions in 2021 , almost three times that of nearest challenger China (18 billion), and 6.5 times greater than the US, Canada, UK, France and Germany combined, according to a report by ACI Worldwide. For India, the growing acceptance of UPI-based mobile payment apps and

Daily Express – Motorists to finally get relief with petrol predicted to fall 8p, prices ‘hard to sustain’
April 4, 2022

While oil prices have surged since the start of the Ukraine conflict a number of factors could now begin working to drive them back down again. Modelling by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) predicts oil prices will fall below $90 a barrel (£68.55) by 2024 with most of the fall forecast by

Daily Express – Young Russians moan as sanctions hammer essentials
March 31, 2022

Young Russians are bemoaning the state of their country’s economy as prices for everyday goods soar following Western sanctions. The Russian economy is buckling under pressure as GDP falls by 10 percent so far in 2022, with a further 1.5percent reduction expected next year according to the European development bank EBRD. This would mark the

The Telegraph – Young Russians mourn the loss of a Western lifestyle as a new iron curtain rises
March 31, 2022

As companies pull out and sanctions grip the economy, young Russians face a dramatic change in living standards. A daily medium cup of coffee in Moscow has turned into an unrealistic luxury for Katya*, costing “as much as a whole meal in a mid-range cafe”. When the Russian capital’s shopping centres were filled with Western

Ahram Online – Chinese Checkers
March 1, 2022

China will not openly support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but, united in their opposition to a US-led world order, both countries are seeking to set new rules. Last Friday at the United Nations Security Council in New York, there was zero expectation that the US-proposed draft resolution condemning Russia’s “invasion” of Ukraine and calling on

You can’t even out regional disparities without the entrepreneurial and creative fillip of immigration!
February 7, 2022

Displaying its policy wonk origins, Michael Gove’s long-awaited white paper on Levelling up the United Kingdom and one of the government’s flagship policies, is full of historical analogies and quotes.  The 322-page epic starts with a tour d’horizon going back 7,000 years, the middle part is a detailed analysis of productivity differentials between regions, somewhat

Capital.com – UK exports rise slightly in PMI but challenges remain
February 1, 2022

New UK export business rose slightly for the first time in five months during January, the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed.  The monthly survey from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS) found stronger demand from the European Union, the US, China, Brazil and the Middle East and North Africa, while UK

Will the supply chain crisis be over quicker than we thought?
January 10, 2022

In the summer of last year, hopes were riding high that the global economy could quickly return to pre-pandemic levels of output due to the success of the vaccine roll-out and economies gradually opening up again. However, the economic recovery thus far has been marred by stretched supply chains, clogged up ports and sky-high freight costs,

Despite Covid, Brexit and inflation, the UK’s long range economic forecast is bright
January 6, 2022

It is sometimes easier to look a few years ahead than it is to look a few months, and this is surely one of those times. We can only guess as to whether the pandemic will be pretty much over by the summer, but we can be confident that in five or 10 years’ time it will

Growth should be fairly strong, stock markets weak. But fighting inflation will be a dominant policy theme of ‘22, while managing the consequences of environmental policy will make this more difficult in the short term
January 1, 2022

After such a frenetic year, I was quite surprised to read what we had predicted a year ago and realise that we had correctly forecast quite a lot of what happened. Our world economy GDP forecast was within 0.2% which is as close to spot on as you can reasonably expect. Our warning about inflation was

Bloomberg – World Economy Now Set to Surpass $100 Trillion in 2022
December 26, 2021

The world economy is set to surpass $100 trillion for the first time in 2022, two years earlier than previously forecast, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research. Global gross domestic product will be lifted by the continued recovery from the pandemic, although if inflation persists it may be hard for policy makers

Bangladesh to become 24th largest economy by 2036
December 26, 2021

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) disclosed the findings in its annual World Economic League Table (WELT 2022) report on Sunday, stating that Bangladesh has been among the world’s fastest growing economies over the last decade. The country is forecast to place 41st in 2022 up from its current position of 42, reaching

India to become 3rd largest economy in 2031, says CEBR
December 26, 2021

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has predicted that India will regain sixth position from France next year and become the third-largest economy in 2031, a year later than previously predicted. CEBR, one of the UK’s leading economics consultancies, in its annual World Economic League Table also predicted that China will overtake the

Reuters – World economy to top $100 trillion in 2022 for first time: report
December 26, 2021

The world’s economic output will exceed $100 trillion for the first time next year and it will take China a little longer than previously thought to overtake the United States as the No.1 economy, a report showed on Sunday. British consultancy Cebr predicted China will become the world’s top economy in dollar terms in 2030,

City AM – UK to remain one of the top six global economies post-Covid, says CEBR report
December 26, 2021

The UK will stay as one of the top six global economies for the next fifteen years, according to the latest annual report by the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR). In its world economic forecast, the consultancy firm said it expected the UK to achieve a trend rate of growth of 2.4 per

The Times – World economy to reach £100 trillion next year
December 26, 2021

Britain will be well placed as the world economy emerges from the pandemic in the coming years, according to a new forecast published today. In its annual world economic league table, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicted that global gross domestic product will top $100 trillion (£75 trillion) for the first time

Business World – Aspiring for high-income status
September 15, 2021

View this article here. Despite the continuing weaknesses of our still fragile democracy, the Philippines is no longer known in international circles as the “sick man of Asia.” Since the beginning of the Third Millennium, as we saw in previous articles in this series, the Philippines has been constantly in the list of the most

Dhaka Tribune – OP-ED: Bangladesh and its emerging economy
September 15, 2021

View this article here. In the CEBR report, Bangladesh ranks 40th among 193 nations this year and would ascend to 25th in 2034, a place presently held by Belgium According to the World Economic League Table 2020, Bangladesh’s economy would grow at one of the fastest rates between 2020 and 2034, thanks to a demographic

Afghanistan is one of the world’s poorest countries. It may just about to be transformed economically by the Chinese – despite the Taliban
September 6, 2021

We normally allocate the country reports for Cebr’s World Economic League Table in turn. I traditionally get the first country on the list which is Afghanistan. And so I’ve been writing a macro report on its economy each year for the past four years. Over this period, the prospects for the economy have gradually deteriorated.

The UK car industry has been suffering and Covid is just a part of the problem
August 31, 2021

The latest SMMT data on car production show that in July, UK manufacturers assembled less than 54,000 new cars. This is the worst July figure since 1956 and a 37.4% year-on-year decline [1]. Up until March this year, car production had seen reasonable month-on-month growth rates and seemed to be recovering from its 2020 woes

The backwash from a US monetary tightening could hit emerging markets at the same time as lack of vaccination is delaying their post-Covid recovery
August 16, 2021

My former CBI colleague Andrew Sentence recently described central banks’ typical attitude to emerging inflation as initial denial that there is a problem, then suggesting it was ‘just a blip’, then admitting that there are inflationary pressures but that ‘they are only temporary’, before finally realising that inflation had in fact taken off, requiring urgent

The News International – Regional connectivity: recipe for economic growth in the region
August 5, 2021

View this article here. Rapid transportation, easy communication, and minimizing tariff and non-tariff trade barriers between countries and regions are key to economic growth and prosperity. These measures lead to inclusive growth of the entire region by enabling all countries to reap fruits of their shared development and economic growth. It is, no doubt, a

Reaction – Have the Chinese abolished boom and bust?
August 2, 2021

View this article here. In the last month, China’s highly successful private tutoring companies and many of its top tech companies, including entertainment giant Tencent, online retailer AliBaba and ride hailing app Didi, have all fallen foul of new Chinese government regulations and faced sharp share price falls. Meanwhile the second-largest Chinese property company Evergrande, which

Could the Chinese, unlike Gordon Brown, have ‘abolished boom and bust’ despite an average property costing 28 times average income?
August 2, 2021

In the last month, China’s highly successful private tutoring companies and many of its top tech companies, including entertainment giant Tencent, online retailer AliBaba and ride hailing app Didi, have all fallen foul of new Chinese government regulations and faced sharp share price falls. Meanwhile the second-largest Chinese property company Evergrande, which has now broken

Honest News Reporter – Scarcity Economics Revives The Ghosts Of The UK’s 1970s
July 4, 2021

View this article here. The UK economy is taking off strongly after the acute covid crisis . However, this rapid recovery in activity can generate major problems in the short and medium term. The islands’ greater isolation after Brexit and global supply problems threaten to bring back the economy from the shortages seen in the

Reaction – Is the UK heading for 1970s-style shortages?
July 2, 2021

View this article here. Most readers will not remember the shortages of the early 1970s, specifically 1973 and 1974. My parents were furnishing a newly built house overlooking the first fairway of the Muirfield golf course in December 1973 and I vividly remember them having to get the furniture made in Malaysia and then shipped to

The Press and Journal – Douglas McWilliams: Shortages and inflation fears reminiscent of the 1970s
July 2, 2021

View this article here. Some readers will remember the shortages of the early 1970s, and specifically 1973 and 1974. My parents were furnishing a newly built house overlooking the first fairway of the Muirfield golf course in December 1973, and I vividly remember them having to get the furniture made in Malaysia and then shipped

The shortage economy – if shortages cause inflation to hit 10%, it might cost 4% of GDP to get it back down again
July 2, 2021

Most readers will not remember the shortages of the early 1970s and specifically 1973 and 1974. My parents were furnishing a newly built house overlooking the first fairway of the Muirfield golf course in December 1973 and I vividly remember them having to get the furniture made in Malaysia and then shipped to the UK

The Times – ‘Historic’ deal on global tax rate to tackle Big Tech
June 5, 2021

View this article here. Tax experts welcomed today’s agreement among G7 finance ministers for a global minimum corporate tax rate, but warned that the apparent breakthrough left plenty of work to do. In the talks in London, which are being chaired by Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, G7 finance chiefs agreed to a global minimum corporate

Financial Times – The Hong Kong dilemma: ‘Either you shut up or you leave’
May 30, 2021

View this article here. The 58-year-old office manager travelled to London with her two sisters and their children. Yet Vera and her family are not alone. Thousands of people are taking similar flights, part of a migration wave that has shocked even those who have made it their business to assist Hong Kong citizens to

Carbon Border Taxes could transform world trade, but the cost is likely to be higher prices
May 4, 2021

The UK has given a high level of priority to the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow on 1 – 12 November 2021, with a leading Cabinet Minister, Alok Sharma, being specifically tasked with making the conference a success. This partly reflects the country’s need to acquire a different international

The Times – Britain is fifth-largest economy in world again after leapfrogging India
January 5, 2021

View the full article here. Britain has retaken fifth place in the rankings of the world’s biggest economies despite suffering one of the deepest recessions in the pandemic. According to the annual league table produced by a leading British economics consultancy, the UK has leapfrogged India and will accelerate away from France in the decade after Brexit.

The second wave could reduce monthly GDP by about 5-10% in the Western world
November 2, 2020

France went into full lockdown on Friday. It is illegal to leave your home except for essential shopping, to work in essential businesses, for medical reasons or to take the one hour of exercise allowed. Non essential businesses will be shut down. Germany has announced also announced a national lockdown, though less severe than in

The Times – Hongkongers could offer £40bn boost to UK economy
July 6, 2020

View the full article here.   The high productivity of Hong Kong citizens and the tendency of migrants to work hard as they establish themselves would add to Britain’s wealth if the government’s special immigration pathway were used, the Centre for Economic and Business Research has said.   The consultancy estimated that mass migration of Hongkongers to

UK GDP could be boosted by £12-40 billion from migration of skilled Hong Kongers
July 6, 2020

The Foreign Secretary has developed proposals for a bespoke immigration route for the 2.8 million Hong Kong people who currently have the status of being British Nationals (Overseas) and their dependants. They will be granted five years leave to remain in the UK, with the right to work or study; after these five years, they will be able

There are increasing risks of war and famine, to add to that of pestilence
June 22, 2020

Having already suffered pestilence, do we need to look out for the other three apocalyptic horsemen from the Book of Revelations: war, famine and death*?   In the past month, there have been some signs. China and India are facing off in the Himalayas, never a good sign when both parties are nuclear-equipped. Cyberwarfare has

Improving the Economic Modelling of Trade Agreements
May 20, 2020

Authors: Shanker Singham, CEO – Competere, Douglas McWilliams, Deputy Chairman – Cebr and Cristian Niculescu-Marcu, Director of Economic Analysis – Cebr   The Trade Bill setting out many of the key elements of the UK’s future trade policy post Brexit starts its second reading in the House of Commons this week. Meanwhile the government has

Economist Douglas McWilliams: Getting Out of the Hole
April 21, 2020

The need to distance ourselves from each other socially and at work because of the Covid 19 virus has shattered our economies which are now suffering their worst hits since the 1930s. While it is true that online shopping and working from home have cushioned the shutdown, my colleagues at Cebr have estimated that the

As the UK remains in lockdown, Government may need to target more support at manufacturing sector
April 6, 2020

Estimates of daily economic impact of the UK’s lockdown by sector – April 2020   As the UK remains locked down this has extremely severe economic consequences. Our modelling suggests that as restrictions currently stand, the lockdown is leading to a reduction in economic output of 31%[1]. However, this figure varies between sectors across the

A world recession is now almost a certainty, with global GDP set to decline twice as much as during the financial crisis. The challenge now is to prevent the recession from turning into a 1930s style rout.
March 22, 2020

Cebr Global Prospects Highlights March 2020 Cebr’s Global Prospects report can be downloaded in full via this link. We have severely downgraded our forecasts for virtually all economies covered. Given that only very little hard data is available showing the impact of the virus on world economies, the forecasts largely reflect our estimates of the

The Guardian – Fears of global economic slowdown as virus follows trade war
February 3, 2020

China, and the world, were already burdened by tariffs. Now, some say the coronavirus could undermine fragile growth   In 2002, Sars spread virtually unchecked to 37 countries, causing global panic, infecting more than 8,000 people and killing about 750. The coronavirus is spreading at a faster rate.   The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) says that

The Telegraph – Renminbi trading hits record levels in the City of London
February 3, 2020

Almost 3 trillion renminbi was cleared in the UK between September and November last year   The City of London has retained its crown as the world’s leading hub for renminbi clearing outside China, new figures show.   Trades totalling nearly 3 trillion renminbi were cleared in the City between September and November last year, up

Coronavirus is currently spreading six times faster than SARS. Unless a cure is found, this could push a fragile world economic recovery into reverse
January 31, 2020

I should have been flying to Beijing on 16 February. This now seems unlikely.   But my problems are minor compared with those of many others. Google, GM and Starbucks are among the companies that have shut down their entire China operations in response to coronavirus which has spread rapidly from Wuhan, where it was first

Prospect – Growth in 2020: a less volatile but still lacklustre year lies ahead
January 16, 2020

Johnson will have to get lucky to avoid a weak UK performance   What is the outlook for the UK economy? Last year proved difficult for forecasters. Not the overall year, which was correctly anticipated by most as likely to be a pretty poor one, but the volatility—month-to-month and quarter-on-quarter.   That was the year of

A recession is coming, but probably not in 2020. We will all become trade experts. Taiwanese and Israeli elections set to return current leaders. Tech and Finance may prove the toughest issues for Brexit. Could England win a major final at Wembley? Cebr’s Top Ten for 2020
January 1, 2020

Marking our own report card,we reckon we were 100% correct in our political and economic predictions last year (copy of last year’s predictions available here for anyone who wants to check our marking). But looking back we don’t feel too pleased with our performance becausewe chickened out with a ‘don’t know’ on what was by far

The Times – India set to be world’s fourth-biggest economy
December 30, 2019

India is on track to overtake Germany as the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2026, dumping all leading European economies out of the top flight as Asia continues its remarkable rise.   The forecast from the Centre for Economic and Business Research in its World Economic League table 2020 underscores the change in the world’s power

World Economic League Table 2020
December 26, 2019

A world economic league table with forecasts for 193 countries to 2034

Ten things you find out if you drive from Beijing to Paris…
December 9, 2019

Forecasting Eye    We will be holding the launch party for my book ‘Driving the Silk Road – Halfway Round the World in a Bentley S1’ next week and actual publication day is 23 December, just in time for Christmas. The book is published by whitefox*.   As we get close to Christmas it is

Cebr welcomes delegation of the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission
November 21, 2019

Cebr was delighted to welcome the National Development and Reform Comission, led by Liu Xilong, Director of the Division of Coal Management of the Bureau of Economic Operations Adjustment.   Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams, Chief Executive Nina Skero, Head of Energy Mike McWilliams and Head of Macroeconomics Kay Neufeld presented an overview of the

The global manufacturing recession
November 18, 2019

Forecasting Eye   Just over a year ago, Cebr wrote about the risk of a global recession rising to one in three for the 2019-20 period. Looking back at the topics that worried us most back then, we see that some of our predictions have come true while others haven’t materialised (yet).   We were certainly

Could the unleashing of women’s true economic potential be the answer to solving our productivity puzzle
November 11, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Our present short term focused market system does not lead to proper allocation of resources because it doesn’t price externalities properly with little account taken of long term impact of actions. This is of course changing as concern over environmental issues such as climate change is increasing but prices and actions are

Unusually, this election will make a difference to the shape of the economy
November 4, 2019

Forecasting Eye    Finally, after months of resisting, Parliament gave in last week and permitted the Prime Minister Boris Johnson to hold an election on 12 December. We sketch out below the likely consequences of different results for the UK economy.   It may surprise some that despite a Conservative lead in the opinion polls

Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams interviewed in the Telegraph on his new book ‘The Inequality Paradox’
October 17, 2019

Prosperity paradox: more wealth leads to higher inequality   Douglas McWilliams believes China is a classic case of the paradox at the heart of the global economy.   Although it has delivered 800 million people out of poverty in the past 40 years, the gap between rich and poor has also grown, something the Chinese

The world’s best ever geography lesson
July 15, 2019

My brother Mike and I completed the Peking to Paris Endurance Rally in the Place Vendome last Sunday in our Bentley S1. Most of the participants made it to the end though many were towed or flatbedded for parts of the journey. No official records are kept for the number of cars that make it under

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